Tigers vs Orioles Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 20th
From Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, we have the Tigers and Orioles facing off in an AL matchup. The Orioles are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -199 compared to the Tigers at +166. Tonight’s over/under line is at 7.5 runs, and the forecasted temperature is 82 degrees with a clear sky.
First pitch is set for 7:05 PM ET, and APLTV will be televising this one. Detroit is 80-73 and they have won four straight, while the Orioles are 85-68 and are second in the AL East. Baltimore will be starting Corbin Burnes, while the Tigers are sending Keider Montero to the mound.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Tigers 1.5 (-139) | Orioles -1.5 (+113)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Tigers +166 | Orioles -199
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Tigers vs. Orioles Prediction: Moneyline
Riley Greene and the Tigers are coming off a good performance to close out their series vs. the Royals. Greene went only 1/5, but his one hit was a home run, and the Tigers picked up the json 4-2 win. Detroit was the -135 favorite on the money line going into the game.
Tarik Skubal started for the Tigers, going five innings and giving up just one run on three hits. He also issued only one walk and struck out seven Royals batters. Detroit’s bullpen closed things out, and Will Vest picked up the save.
Detroit is 80-73 overall, and they are 8.5 games behind the Guardians in the AL Central. The Tigers are on a four-game winning streak, and they closed out their series vs. the Royals with three straight wins. So far, they have gone 27-22 in AL Central matchups.
As for how they have fared on the road, the Tigers are 41-37 this season compared to a 39-36 mark at home. Detroit has won five straight road games, and they have an overall series record of 24-20-5, including four straight series wins.
The Orioles’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Giants, closing out their series with a 5-3 win. After allowing one run to the Giants in the top of the first, the Orioles responded with three runs of their own. Baltimore went on to add another two runs in the 4th inning.
Starting for the Orioles was Zach Eflin, who picked up the win while going six innings and giving up just two runs on six hits. He only had five strikeouts in the outing and issued just one walk. Anthony Santander went 1/3 with a homer and two RBIs.
Baltimore is 85-68 overall and is four games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Orioles will take on the Tigers at home today. Looking at their record vs. other AL East teams, they are 30-19 this year.
So far, the Orioles have really struggled as the favorite, going 69-50. As for their record as the home favorite, they are 39-31. Baltimore has dropped four straight series and is just 25-17-7 in series this year. They closed out their series vs. the Giants with a loss and are just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
Tigers vs. Orioles Prediction: Over/Under
The Tigers have played in 96 games this season where the over/under line was set higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged a combined 8.2 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 75-74, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 21 times and under 18 times. Currently, they are on a streak of two consecutive games going under the total.
Heading into today’s game, the Tigers are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 18th in the league. They have been a bit better on the road, averaging 4.4 runs per game. Detroit’s offense has been led by Riley Greene, who is batting .262 for the season and has a team-high 24 homers and 71 RBIs. Greene has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/32 with four homers in his last eight games.
Colt Keith has been swinging a hot bat of late, as he is currently on a four-game hitting streak and is batting .264 for the season. He is 3rd on the team with 13 homers and has driven in 58 runs. Matt Vierling is also near the top of the Tigers’ home run leaderboard, as he has 16 homers this season, which is 2nd on the team.
When the Baltimore Orioles play at home, the over has hit in 81 of 142 games, including a 9-7 record when the O/U line is set at 7.5 runs. The Orioles’ games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and the over has hit in three straight games. The average O/U line for Orioles games this season is 8 runs, and 79.1% of their games have had higher O/U lines than today’s 7.5-run total.
Coming into today’s game, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are averaging 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest. Baltimore is also among the league leaders in slugging percentage and OPS. One area they have struggled in is with their batting average on balls in play, as their mark of .28 is 14th in the league.
Gunnar Henderson and Anthony Santander have been the Orioles’ top power threats this season, as Henderson is 2nd on the team with 37 homers and Santander is just ahead of him with 42. Santander is also 13th in the league with 97 RBIs. However, both players have gone deep just once in their last six games, with Santander hitting just .130 over that stretch and Henderson batting .292.
Tigers vs. Orioles Prediction: Spread
The Tigers have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 82-71 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 49-29. They have covered the run line in four straight road games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 60-33 on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.6, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.3.
Keider Montero has been pitching well for the Tigers, as he has won each of his last two starts. Most recently, he faced off against the Orioles, where he picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run. Before that, he had a complete game shutout. Montero has a record of 6-6 this season and an ERA of 4.60. Opponents are batting .250 off Montero this season. The right-hander has made 15 starts, one of which was a complete game shutout, and has four quality starts. So far, he has a WHIP of 1.27.
When betting the run line, the Orioles have been a better bet on the road this season, going 44-31 compared to 37-41 at home. They have an average run differential of +0.5 runs per game this season, and their average run differential in wins is +3.7 runs per game.
Corbin Burnes will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Tigers, he went seven innings, giving up just two hits and one walk. Looking back over his last four outings, Burnes has finished with a no-decision, win, win, and loss. His record for the season is 14-8, and his ERA is 3.06. Out of his 30 starts, Burnes has turned in 21 quality starts and is averaging 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has given up 21 homers and is averaging just 2.17 walks per nine innings.
Tigers vs. Orioles Pick: Tigers ML +166
Our pick for today’s Tigers vs. Orioles matchup is to take the Tigers on the money line, with the payout being +166. We actually have the Tigers winning this one by a score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Corbin Burnes finishing with six strikeouts for the Orioles, and for the Tigers, Keider Montero is projected to finish with just four K’s.
Offensively, the Tigers are projected to finish with nine hits, compared to the Orioles, who we have finishing with eight. However, the Orioles are projected to finish with just four runs, with the Tigers finishing with five.
