Reds vs Braves Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 9th
First pitch for Monday’s Braves vs. Reds matchup is set for 6:40 PM ET from Truist Park in Atlanta, GA. The forecast for the game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. BSSO is carrying this game on TV.
Currently, the Braves are 78-65, while the Reds are 69-75. Atlanta is favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds, and the Braves are going with Charlie Morton. In the NL Central, the Reds are 4th, while the Braves are 3rd in the NL East.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Reds 1.5 (-150) | Braves -1.5 (+123)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Reds +138 | Braves -165
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Reds vs. Braves Prediction: Moneyline
Cincinnati closed out their series vs. the Mets with a 3-1 win on the road. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at +177. It was a big 3rd inning for the Reds, as they scored all three of their runs in the inning. The Mets could only score one run, and it came in the 6th.
Julian Aguiar put together a good start for the Reds, going 4 2/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out two. However, the Reds had to use six different pitchers to close things out, and Buck Farmer got the win out of the bullpen. The Reds also designated hitter Santiago Espinal went 2/4 with two RBIs.
Cincinnati is 69-75 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Cardinals by 3.5 games for 3rd place in the division and are 13.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds are just below .500 at home with a 36-39 record and are 33-36 on the road.
The Reds will be on the road today, taking on the Braves. This season, the Reds have gone 33-33 as the favorite but are just 36-42 as the underdog. As the road underdog, they have gone 21-30 this season. Cincinnati’s series record is 16-26-3, and they are coming off losing their series vs. the Mets 2-1.
Heading into their last game vs. the Blue Jays, the Braves closed out the series with a 4-3 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -276. Offensively, the Braves scored their four runs on eight hits and only had one home run.
Chris Sale put together a good start for the Braves, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out seven Blue Jays batters. Jarred Kelenic was hot at the plate, going 1/3 with a homer and scoring a run. The Braves’s other three runs came in the 2nd inning.
With a record of 78-65, the Braves are seven games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Atlanta is 3rd in the division and has a record of 23-21 in the division. Today, the Braves host the Reds with an overall series record of 26-15-5, and they have won two straight series.
At home, the Braves are 40-30 this season compared to 38-35 on the road. As the favorite, Atlanta has gone 66-49 and 12-16 as the underdog. They closed out their series vs. the Blue Jays with a win and are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Reds vs. Braves Prediction: Over/Under
The Cincinnati Reds are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves. The over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is below their season average of 9 runs per game. The Reds have gone over the total in 16 of 29 games this season when the line is set at 8.5 runs. Their combined run average is 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 67-70.
Elly De La Cruz has been a consistent run producer for the Reds this season, as his 65 RBIs are the 2nd most on the team, and he is also leading the team with 23 homers. De La Cruz is batting .261 for the season, but he has struggled a bit of late, hitting just 6/27 in his last seven games. Spencer Steer has also struggled for the Reds, batting just .232 for the season and is on a 3-game hitting streak.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .233 is 20th in the league, and they are also among the league leaders in strikeouts. Overall, they are 10th in the league in home runs.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs for the Atlanta Braves’ game against the Cincinnati Reds is slightly higher than their average combined run average of 8.1 runs per game. The Braves have played 44 games this season with over/under lines higher than 8.5, and their over/under record for those games is 13-23. Overall, their over/under record for the season is 52-86.
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, batting .306 with a team-high 37 home runs and 98 RBIs. He has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/27 in his last seven games. Jarred Kelenic has also been hot of late, going 5/16 in his last five games with two homers. For the season, Kelenic is batting just .220.
As a team, the Braves are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.3 runs per game. However, they have been better on the road (4.6 RPG) than at home (3.9 RPG). Overall, they are just 15th in batting average and are averaging 9 strikeouts per game.
Reds vs. Braves Prediction: Spread
The Reds have been a tough team to predict against the run line this season, as their average run margin is just 0.1 runs per game. They have a winning record against the run line at 77-67, including a 42-27 mark on the road. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 50-28 against the run line in those games.
Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 7-6 with a 3.67 ERA. Martinez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.15. In his 38 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Martinez picked up the win vs. the Astros, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up a homer, but he has given up at least one homer in four of his last six starts.
The Braves have been a strong run line bet on the road this season, going 39-34. Their average run differential on the road is +0.9 runs per game, compared to -0.0 runs per game at home. They have been the favorite in most games, going 51-64 against the run line, but have been a solid bet as the underdog, going 17-11.
Charlie Morton will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Rockies. In that September 4th start, he went 5 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Morton has made 26 starts, and his record for the season is 8-7. The right-hander’s ERA is 4.24, along with a WHIP of 1.32. Opposing batters have a batting average of .244 vs. Morton this season. He has a total of 10 quality starts and is averaging 9.36 strikeouts per nine innings.
Reds vs. Braves Pick: Reds ML +138
We see the Reds pulling off the win on the road against the Braves, and with the money line payout sitting at +138, that is the route we recommend going. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Reds.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Charlie Morton is projected to finish with eight strikeouts compared to Nick Martinez with just four. However, Martinez is projected to give up fewer earned runs, and we have him finishing with a higher chance of picking up a win.
Offensively, we have the Reds finishing with 11 total strikeouts compared to the Braves with eight. The Braves are also projected to finish with fewer home runs than the Reds, and overall, the Braves lineup is projected to finish with fewer hits than the Reds.
