Red Sox vs Rays Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 18th
From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Red Sox and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. This game is getting started at 6:50 PM ET, and NESN is carrying it on TV. The Red Sox are -121 on the money line compared to the Rays at -107, and the over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Boston is looking to snap a two-game losing streak, as they are 75-76 this season, while the Rays are 74-77 overall. Tanner Houck is starting for the Red Sox, and Ryan Pepiot is on the mound for the Rays.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+166) | Rays 1.5 (-218)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Red Sox +100 | Rays -121
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Moneyline
Tampa Bay cruised to an easy 8-3 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their eight runs. As for the Red Sox, they scored their only three runs in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Rays were at +111 on the money line.
Shane Baz pitched well for the Rays in this one, going seven innings and giving up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued one walk. Nick Pivetta had a rough outing for the Red Sox, taking the loss after going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs.
Tampa Bay got a big performance from Triston Casas, as he went 1/2 with a home run and two RBIs. Jose Siri also had a two-hit game and drove in four runs for the Rays’ offense.
Boston is 75-76 overall and trails the Yankees by 13 games in the AL East. Currently, they are 3rd in the division and have gone 21-23 in AL East matchups. The Red Sox have dropped two straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Rays 0-1.
At home, the Red Sox are 35-40 this year, and they are over .500 at 40-36 on the road. As the road favorite, the Red Sox have gone 15-6 this year, and they are 41-34 as the favorite overall. As for their record as the underdog, they are 34-42 this season.
Tampa Bay is 74-77 overall and trails the Yankees by 14 games in the AL East. Currently, they are in 4th place in the division, just one game behind the Red Sox for the 3rd spot in the AL East. So far, they have gone 20-24 in divisional games.
At home, the Rays are an even 38-38 this year. They have been just below .500 on the road, going 36-39. Tampa Bay has been the favorite in 65 games, and they are 35-30 in those games. As the underdog, the Rays are 39-47 this year. Their overall series record is 22-18-7, and they are 1-0-0 in this series vs. the Red Sox.
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line for the Red Sox-Rays game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than the average over/under line for Boston games this season. The Red Sox have played 20 games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs this season, and the over has hit in nine of those games. Overall, Boston games have gone over the total 75 times this season, and the combined run average in their games is 9.5 runs per game.
Over his last 10 games, Tyler O’Neill has hit six home runs for the Red Sox, but he is batting just .237 during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .251 with a team-high 31 homers. Rafael Devers is also near the top of the league in homers, as his 28 is 14th in the MLB. He is also leading the Red Sox with 83 RBIs and is batting .276.
As a team, the Red Sox are 7th in home runs and are 5th in batting average. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. Currently, they are the league’s top team in terms of BABIP.
When the Tampa Bay Rays play at home, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.0 runs per game this season. Overall, the Rays have gone 66-77 on over/under bets this season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone 23-27 on over/under bets. This season, 57.0% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, while only 9.9% have had lower lines.
Yandy Diaz comes into the game as the Rays’ top hitter, batting .283 for the season, and he has been even better of late, going 12/29 in his last eight games. This stretch has also included a home run. Brandon Lowe has also been swinging the bat well, with a line of 7/27 (.259) in his last eight games, including three homers.
As a team, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team slugging percentage. Overall, they are batting just .231, which is 18th in the league.
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Spread
The Red Sox are 43-33 vs. the run line on the road this season, but they have failed to cover in their last two road games. Their average run differential on the road is +0.5 runs per game.
Tanner Houck gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Rays on the road. So far this season, he has made 28 starts and has a record of 8-10. Houck’s ERA is 3.24, along with a WHIP of 1.17. In his 28 appearances, he has one complete game shutout and 19 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Houck took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had not allowed an earned run in two straight outings.
When the Rays win, they win big, with an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of -3.4 runs per game. Overall, they have a run line record of 78-73, and they are 43-32 against the run line on the road. As the underdog, they are 54-32 against the run line.
Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today and is coming off a short outing vs. the Guardians, where he went just 2 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, 4 hits, and 2 walks. He did not give up a homer in that outing. Before that, he had given up a homer in three straight starts. Pepiot’s ERA for the season is 3.76, along with a record of 8-6. The right-hander has made 23 starts, and opponents are batting .211 off him this season. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is 1.17.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick: Red Sox ML +100
Getting the Red Sox at +100 on the money line is the way we recommend playing this Red Sox and Rays matchup. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Red Sox, giving us some nice value on the Red Sox to win this one outright.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Tanner Houck is projected to finish with around seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among all starters today. As for Ryan Pepiot, his projections have him finishing with just four strikeouts, which is the second-lowest among starters.
