Red Sox vs Rays Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 17th
From Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, we have the Red Sox and Rays facing off in an AL East matchup. This one gets started at 6:50 PM ET, and it will be televised by NESN. The Red Sox are favored on the money line (-111), while the Rays are the slight underdogs (+106). The over/under line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Boston’s record is 75-75, while the Rays are 73-77. Nick Pivetta is starting for the Red Sox, and the Rays are starting Shane Baz. Tampa Bay is currently on a two-game losing streak.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+152) | Rays 1.5 (-185)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Red Sox -111 | Rays -106
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Moneyline
The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Yankees with a 5-2 loss. Boston was the +149 underdog on the money line going into this road game. Things started off well for the Red Sox, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Yankees scored three times in the bottom of the second.
Kutter Crawford got the start for the Red Sox and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up four earned runs on six hits. Offensively, the Red Sox only had two fewer hits than the Yankees but scored just two runs. Tyler O’Neill had a homer in the 2nd inning but went only 1/4.
Boston is at an even .500 at 75-75, and they trail the Yankees by 12 games in the AL East. The Red Sox are in 3rd place in the division, and they are 21-22 against other AL East teams. Boston will kick off their series vs. the Rays, with a 3.0-game lead over the Red Sox.
At home, the Red Sox are just 35-40 this year, but they have been better on the road at 40-35. As the road favorite, the Red Sox have gone 15-5 this season, and they are 41-33 overall as the favorite. Boston’s series record is 22-19-6 this year.
The Red Sox lost three of four games to the Yankees in their most recent series, and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games overall.
Heading into their last game vs. the Guardians, the Rays closed out the series with a 2-0 loss. Tampa Bay was the +106 underdog on the money line. It was a rough start for the Rays, as the Guardians scored a run in the 2nd inning. Tampa Bay’s offense didn’t score their first run until the 4th.
Taj Bradley got the start for the Rays and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on five hits. The Rays also wasted a good game from Brandon Lowe, who went 2/4 with a run scored.
Tampa Bay will host the Red Sox today with an overall record of 73-77, which has them 4th in the AL East. Currently, they trail the Yankees by 14 games in the division. The Rays head into today’s game having lost two straight games, and they are just 4-6 across their last ten games.
So far, the Rays are 19-24 against other AL East teams. At home, they are 37-38 compared to 36-39 on the road. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 38-47 this year, which includes having lost two straight as the underdog. Their overall series record is 22-18-7, and they most recently split their series vs. the Guardians.
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Over/Under
The Boston Red Sox are on the road today against the Tampa Bay Rays, and the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is 9.4, and their over/under record is 74-68. Their average over/under line for the season is 9 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, the Red Sox have gone over 9 times and under 11 times. Overall, 85.3% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs. They are currently on a 2-game under streak.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 5th in the league in batting average and have been one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league this season. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. One of the things that has really helped the Red Sox offense is their league-leading .32 BABIP, which is a big reason why they are also one of the top teams in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.
Rafael Devers has been the Red Sox’s top power threat this season, as his 28 homers are 2nd on the team and 13th in the league. He also leads the team with 83 RBIs and comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat for the Red Sox, but he has struggled at the plate of late, going just 3/21 in his last six games.
The Tampa Bay Rays have an over/under record of 65-77 this season, with an average over/under line of 8 runs per game. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 23-27. The over has hit in 56.7% of their games this season. They are currently on a five-game under streak.
For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. This is also the 24th ranked home run hitting team in the league, and they are batting a combined .230. However, they do have the 9th fewest strikeouts in the league. Yandy Diaz is batting .283 for the season and is on a seven-game hitting streak. He also leads the team with 65 RBIs and has 14 homers.
Over his last five games, Jonathan Aranda has gone 5/15 with two homers and three RBIs. However, he is batting just .198 for the season. Christopher Morel is the team’s leader in homers, but he is batting just .198 for the year. Brandon Lowe has gone deep 18 times this season and is batting .244.
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction: Spread
When betting the run line on the Red Sox, it’s been a good idea to take them on the road, where they are 43-32. They have a positive run differential on the road, averaging 0.6 more runs per game than they allow. Their overall run line record is 71-79, and they have a run line record of 43-33 when they are the underdog.
Right-hander Nick Pivetta gets the start for the Red Sox today as he faces the Rays on the road. He has made 23 starts this season and has a record of 5-10 with an ERA of 4.25. Pivetta’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his last outing, Pivetta finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Looking back further, he has finished with a no-decision in three straight outings. Pivetta has allowed just one earned run in each of his last two outings. Per nine innings, he is averaging 10.86 strikeouts compared to just 2.23 walks.
The Rays have a run line record of 77-73 on the season, including a 34-41 mark at home. They have been better against the run line on the road, going 43-32, and have covered the run line in their last two games at home. As the underdog, they have a run line record of 53-32.
Through 11 starts, Shane Baz has a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.28. He has made five quality starts this year and is coming off an outing in which he didn’t allow a run. In that September 11th start vs. the Phillies, Baz went 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, four hits, and three walks. He finished with a no-decision in the outing. Looking back further, Baz had given up at least one homer in three straight starts before the outing vs. the Phillies. So far, he has allowed seven homers at home and 3.01 on the road.
Red Sox vs. Rays Pick: Red Sox ML -111
Our prediction for this Red Sox and Rays matchup is that the Red Sox will come out on top by a final score of 5-4. With the Red Sox predicted to win, we would recommend taking them on the money line, where they are at -111.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Shane Baz finishing with five strikeouts compared to Nick Pivetta with six. However, we have Baz finishing with a higher ERA than Pivetta, and if you’re looking for a starting pitcher to pick up a win, Pivetta comes in at 14th in our rankings compared to Baz at 10th.
