Rays vs Red Sox Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 28th
From Fenway Park in Boston, we have the Rays and Red Sox facing off in an AL East matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 4:10 PM ET. NESN is carrying this one on TV, and the Red Sox are the slight favorite on the money line (-122).
Tampa Bay will be looking to pull off the road upset with their money line odds sitting at +104. Kutter Crawford will be on the mound for the Red Sox. The Rays are 79-81, while the Red Sox are 80-80 overall. Shane Baz is Saturday’s Rays starter.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Rays 1.5 (-200) | Red Sox -1.5 (+169)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: Rays +104 | Red Sox -122
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Moneyline
Tampa Bay picked up a 2-1 win over the Red Sox in the most recent game of this series. The Rays offense only had five hits but still picked up the win thanks to a good outing from Taj Bradley, who went six innings and didn’t give up a run.
Bradley finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued just one walk. He picked up a win in the game, while Edwin Uceta got the save. Nick Pivetta had a good outing for the Red Sox in the losing effort, going 6 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs.
Josh Lowe was the difference for the Rays, as he homered twice, scored three times, and finished with two RBIs. Vaughn Grissom had a three-hit game for Boston.
The Rays are 79-81 overall and trail the Yankees by 14 games in the AL East. Currently, they are in 4th place in the division, just a game behind the Red Sox for the 3rd spot. So far, they have gone 25-25 in divisional games.
At home, the Rays have gone 42-39 this season and are just under .500 at 37-42 on the road. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 42-50 this year and 37-31 when favored. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 23-20-7, and they are currently up 1-0 in this series vs. the Red Sox.
Boston is sitting at .500 with an overall record of 80-80, and they are 13 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox lost the first game of their series vs. the Rays and are 3rd in the AL East with an overall division record of 24-26. So far, they are 37-42 at home and 43-38 on the road.
This season, Boston is just above .500 both as the favorite and as the underdog. As the home favorite, the Red Sox are 26-29 this season. They have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 25-19-6.
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line for the Tampa Bay Rays’ game against the Boston Red Sox is set at 8 runs. The Rays have played to an over/under record of 66-85 on the season, with an average combined run average of 7.8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 17-25-2. The over/under line has been set at 8 runs in 44.9% of their games this season.
Coming into the game, the Rays are 29th in the league in runs scored, averaging just 3.7 runs per game. This is also the worst mark in the league. As a team, they are batting just .230, which is 16th in the league, and their on-base percentage of .302 is 18th. Tampa Bay’s offense has been a little better at home, scoring 3.8 runs per game, compared to 3.7 on the road.
Yandy Diaz comes into the game as the Rays’ top hitter, with a batting average of .280, and he also leads the team with 65 RBIs. Diaz is 3rd on the team with 14 home runs. Christopher Morel and Brandon Lowe are tied for the team lead in homers, but Morel is batting just .194, and Lowe is at .239. Jose Siri is 2nd on the team in homers but is batting just .188.
When the Red Sox are at home this season, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs, and the over has hit in 15 of the 30 games. Overall, the over/under record for Boston is 78-74, with the average line set at 9 runs. The combined run average in Red Sox games is 9.3 runs per game this season.
The Red Sox have been one of the league’s best offenses this season, as they are 7th in home runs and have the league’s best team BABIP at .32. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game (9th) and are batting a collective .252 (6th). One of the reasons for their strong offensive numbers is their team on-base percentage of .319, which is 8th in the league.
Jarren Duran has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 11/41 in his last 10 games, and he is currently on a seven-game hitting streak. For the season, he is batting .286 with 21 homers. Rafael Devers has also been a key power bat for the Red Sox, as he has 28 homers and is batting .272.
Rays vs. Red Sox Prediction: Spread
When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 46-33 on the season. They have covered in two straight games and have been particularly good as the underdog, going 59-33 against the run line. Their average run differential in wins is +2.7, while it is -3.4 in losses.
Right-hander Shane Baz gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 13 starts this season and has a record of 3-3 with a 3.07 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.09. In his 13 starts, he has turned in seven quality starts and is averaging 7.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Baz most recently faced the Blue Jays, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and giving up one earned run on four hits. Before that outing, he had given up at least two earned runs in three straight starts.
When the Red Sox are favored, they are a poor bet against the run line, going 28-49. However, when they are the underdog, they are a solid 48-35 vs. the run line. Overall, they are 76-84 vs. the run line this season. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.9, while it is -3.8 in losses.
Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford will be looking to build off his last outing, where he pitched well and picked up the win. Against the Twins on September 22nd, he went 7 2/3 innings, giving up three earned runs, and picking up the win. Looking at his overall numbers, Crawford has made 32 starts and has a record of 9-15. His ERA for the season is 4.17, along with a WHIP of 1.10. Opposing batters are hitting .219 off Crawford this season. Out of his 32 starts, Crawford has turned in 15 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.48 strikeouts and 2.36 walks.
Rays vs. Red Sox Pick: Red Sox ML -122
Our prediction for this one is that the Red Sox will pick up a 5-4 win over the Rays. With the Red Sox being the predicted winner, we recommend taking them on the money line, where the payout is -122.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Shane Baz is projected to finish with just four strikeouts, and his team is projected to finish with just two home runs. As for Red Sox starter Kutter Crawford, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts.
