Rays vs Phillies Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 11th
The Phillies are the heavy favorite heading into this interleague matchup, with the money line odds sitting at -204 compared to the Rays at +172. This one is getting started at 6:40 PM ET from Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, and the forecast is clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s.
Shane Baz is starting for the Rays, and he is facing off against Zack Wheeler. The Phillies are 87-58 and have won two straight, while the Rays are 71-74 and are 4th in the AL East. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and the game can be seen on BSSUN.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Rays 1.5 (-131) | Phillies -1.5 (+108)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Rays +172 | Phillies -204
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Rays vs. Phillies Prediction: Moneyline
Philadelphia cruised to a 9-4 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 8th inning, scoring five of their nine runs. As for the Rays, they scored their final run in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -181 on the money line.
Trea Turner had a big game for the Phillies, going 3/5 with two homers and four RBIs. Bryce Harper also had a four-hit game and scored two runs. For the Rays, Junior Caminero went 3/4 with an RBI.
Ranger Suarez only went 5 1/3 innings for the Phillies but gave up just two earned runs and struck out six. He did not factor in the decision, as Jose Alvarado got the win out of the bullpen. Richard Lovelady took the loss for the Rays out of the bullpen.
Tampa Bay is 71-74 overall, putting them 4th in the AL East, 12 games behind the Yankees for the division lead. The Rays have dropped two straight games, and they are losing the series vs. the Phillies 0-2 heading into today’s matchup. In the AL East, they are two games behind the Red Sox for 3rd place and trail the Blue Jays by 2.5 games for 3rd place.
As the road underdog, the Rays have gone 23-25 this year compared to 37-38 at home. As the underdog overall, Tampa Bay is 36-44 this season and 35-30 as the favorite. Their overall series record is 22-18-6, and they are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
With an overall record of 87-58, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Mets. The Phillies have taken two straight games, and they are 25-17 in divisional matchups this year. Philadelphia has won four straight games at home, and they are 49-25 at home this season.
Philadelphia has been good as the favorite this season, putting together a mark of 74-43. As the underdog, the Phillies are 13-15 this year. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 25-16-7 this season.
Rays vs. Phillies Prediction: Over/Under
When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs. The Rays have a combined run average of 8.1 runs per game this season. Overall, their games have gone over the total 65 times and under 72 times. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their games have gone over 23 times and under 25 times. In total, 57.2% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Yandy Diaz has been one of the few bright spots in the Rays lineup this season, as he is batting .280 with 14 homers and 65 RBIs. Diaz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/25 in his last six games with two homers. Jonny DeLuca has also been swinging a hot bat for the Rays, going 11/31 in his last eight games.
As a team, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average. Overall, they are batting just .231 and are just 24th in team slugging percentage.
With a combined run average of 9.0, the Phillies have seen their fair share of high-scoring games this season. Their over/under record is 68-70, and the average over/under line for their games is 8 runs. When the line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 13-14. Overall, 73.1% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, with just 8.3% having lower lines.
As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is good for 5th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the league’s best hitting teams, coming in 4th in batting average and 3rd in OPS. Philadelphia also has the 2nd best collective BABIP in the league.
Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late, going 14/31 (.452) with seven homers and 13 RBIs over his last eight games. He is currently 9th in the league with 95 RBIs and is also 7th in the league with 35 homers. Bryce Harper is also having a strong season, batting .291 with 26 homers and 79 RBIs.
Rays vs. Phillies Prediction: Spread
Despite being a road underdog, the Rays’ run line record is 50-30, and their average run margin in losing games is -3.5. They have a run line losing streak of 1 on the road, but overall, they are 74-71 against the run line this season.
Right-hander Shane Baz gets the start for the Rays today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with a 3.27 ERA. Baz’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.24. In his last outing, he took the loss, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One of those outings was on the road, where he pitched 7 2/3 scoreless innings. Baz has made five quality starts this year and is averaging 7.53 strikeouts per nine innings.
Philadelphia is 34-40 against the run line at home this season, with a scoring margin of 1.2 runs per game. The Phillies are 71-74 overall against the run line, with an average run differential of 0.8 runs per game. They are 37-34 against the run line on the road, with a scoring margin of 0.5 runs per game. Philadelphia has covered the run line in each of its last two games as the favorite, improving to 56-61 against the run line as the favorite this season.
Zack Wheeler will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in six innings of work. In that September 6th outing vs. the Marlins, he came away with the win. Looking back over his last three outings, Wheeler has given up two earned runs in two of them. He has a total of 22 quality starts this season and a record of 14-6. Wheeler’s ERA for the season is an impressive 2.59, along with a WHIP of .96. For the year, he has allowed 17 home runs and is averaging 9.85 strikeouts per nine innings.
Rays vs. Phillies Pick: Over 7.5 Runs +100
Our prediction for today’s Rays vs. Phillies game is to take the over, with the line being set at 7.5 runs. We actually have the Phillies winning this one 5-4, but with the payout for a Phillies win being -204, we see better value on the over.
Looking at some potential player props, Zack Wheeler is projected to finish with seven strikeouts. As for Shane Baz, we have him finishing with four K’s. Offensively, you could look at the Phillies to finish with 1.5 home runs compared to the Rays at 0.5.
