Rays vs Orioles Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 7th

There are overcast clouds in the forecast for Saturday’s matchup between the Rays and Orioles, which is set to get started at 4:05 PM ET from Oriole Park at Camden Yards in Baltimore, MD. Ryan Pepiot will start for the Rays, and they are +155 on the money line. Baltimore will start Zach Eflin and they are the heavy favorite at -185.

The over/under line is currently at 8 runs, and the Orioles are leading the AL East with an overall record of 82-60. The Rays are 4th in the AL East with a record of 69-72.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Rays 1.5 (-141) | Orioles -1.5 (+116)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Rays +155 | Orioles -185

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction: Moneyline

Baltimore picked up a 2-0 win over the Rays in the most recent game of this series. The Orioles had just two more hits than the Rays and struck out 12 times, but still picked up a win thanks to a good outing from Dean Kremer, who went six innings and didn’t give up a run.

Shane Baz started for the Rays and gave up just one run in six innings of work. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued three walks. Tampa Bay’s offense was held in check, as they scored their only run in the 5th inning.

Gunnar Henderson was the difference for the Orioles, as he homered and scored both of their runs. Cedric Mullins also had a two-hit game for Baltimore’s offense.

The Rays are 69-72 overall and trail the Orioles by 12.5 games for the AL East lead. Currently, they are 4th in the division, 2 games behind the Red Sox for 3rd place. Tampa Bay has dropped two straight games, and they are 4-6 across their last 10 games.

At home, the Rays are 37-38 this season, and they are just above .500 at 32-34 on the road. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 34-42 this season, and they are 35-30 when favored. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 21-17-6, and they have lost two straight games as the underdog.

The Orioles hold a slim half-game lead over the Yankees in the AL East, and they are 82-60 overall this season. The Orioles have gone 29-15 against other teams in the AL East. They took the first game of their series vs. the Rays and have an overall series record of 24-13-7 this year.

At home, the Orioles are 42-31 this season, and they have been good on the road, going 40-29. So far, they have been good as the favorite, putting up a mark of 67-45. As the home favorite, the Orioles are 38-28 this season. Looking at their overall record, the Orioles have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction: Over/Under

The Tampa Bay Rays are on the road today against the Baltimore Orioles. The over/under line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Rays and their opponents have combined to average 8.2 runs per game this season. Overall, the over/under record for Tampa Bay games this season is 63-70. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Rays have a record of 16-18-1. So far this season, 46 of the Rays’ games have had over/under lines set at more than 8 runs, which accounts for 32.6% of their games. On the other hand, 60 games have had over/under lines set at fewer than 8 runs, which accounts for 42.6% of their games.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.9 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and team batting average. However, they do have the 8th fewest strikeouts in the league and have been good at drawing walks this season. As a team, they have a collective on-base percentage of just .305.

Yandy Diaz comes into the game with a team-high 62 RBIs and is batting .275. His 13 homers are 4th on the team. Christopher Morel is the team’s home run leader with 21, but he is batting just .197. Morel does come into the game on a three-game hitting streak, and Jonny DeLuca has gone 6/19 in his last five games.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the average over/under line for the Orioles this season. Baltimore games have averaged 9.3 runs per game, and their over/under record is 76-55. When the line has been set at 8 runs, the over has hit 17 times, the under has hit 7 times, and there have been 3 pushes. Overall, 61.3% of Orioles games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.

As a team, the Orioles are the MLB’s 2nd ranked home run hitting team and are also near the top of the league in terms of runs scored, averaging 5 runs per game. One of the reasons they have been so good offensively is their league-leading isolated power figure of .190. Overall, they are batting .252, which is the 7th best mark in the league.

Gunnar Henderson has been one of the Orioles’ top hitters this season, batting .282 with 36 homers and 85 RBIs. He is also on a six-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 10/23 with three home runs. Anthony Santander has also gone deep a lot this season, with his 39 homers good for 3rd in the league. He is batting just .241, but his 91 RBIs are the best on the team.

Rays vs. Orioles Prediction: Spread

When playing on the road, the Rays have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 37-29. They have covered the run line in 47 of 76 games as the underdog, but are just 24-41 when favored. Their average run margin in wins is +2.7, while it drops to -3.5 in losses.

Ryan Pepiot will be looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he gave up three earned runs in just three innings of work vs. the Padres. In that outing, he gave up four hits, issued four walks, and gave up a homer. Coming into this game, he has a record of 7-6 and an ERA of 3.76. Pepiot’s WHIP for the season is 1.12. Looking back over his last four outings, he has finished with a no-decision in two of them and has allowed at least one homer in three of the four outings. The right-hander has made eight starts on the road, going 4-3 with a 3.76 ERA.

When the Orioles win, they win by an average of 3.8 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.5 runs per game. Overall, they have a run differential of +0.7 runs per game. Their run line record is 78-64, and they are 36-37 at home and 42-27 on the road. As the favorite, they are 57-55 vs. the run line, and as the underdog, they are 21-9.

Zach Eflin has been pitching well for the Orioles, as he has won his last four starts. Most recently, he faced the Rockies and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four starts, Eflin has allowed one earned run in three of them. For the season, he has a record of 10-7 and an ERA of 3.60. Eflin’s WHIP for the season is 1.12. Opposing batters are hitting .251 off Eflin this season. He has made 24 starts, 11 of which were quality starts.

Rays vs. Orioles Pick: Over 8 Runs -104

Our prediction for the Orioles vs. Rays game is to take the over, as we see the final score being 6-4 in favor of the Orioles. With the line sitting at 8 runs, there is some room for this line to move, but we would jump on it now if you can get it at -104.

Looking at some potential player props, we do have Zach Eflin finishing with six strikeouts, which is good for 14th among starters today. As for Ryan Pepiot, we have him finishing with just four strikeouts, which is the third lowest among starters.