Rays vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 12th

Thursday’s forecast in Cleveland calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 80s. The Guardians will be hosting the Rays, and they are the betting favorite, with the money line odds sitting at -142. On the other side, the Rays have lost three straight and are 4th in the AL East with a record of 71-75.

First pitch from Progressive Field is set for 7:15 PM ET, and FOX will be carrying the TV rights for this AL matchup. Ryan Pepiot is starting for the Rays, while the Guardians are going with Gavin Williams. The over/under line is at 8 runs.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Rays 1.5 (-184) | Guardians -1.5 (+152)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Rays +121 | Guardians -142

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline

The Rays will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Phillies with a 3-2 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 7th inning before the Phillies scored two runs in the bottom of the 7th. Tampa Bay was the +191 underdog going into this road game.

Shane Baz got the start for the Rays and took the loss. He only lasted 5 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs on three hits. Jonathan Aranda had a good day at the plate, going 2/3 with a homer and scoring both of the Rays’ runs.

Tampa Bay is 71-75 overall and trails the Yankees by 13 games in the AL East. The Rays have dropped three straight games, and they lost the final three games of their series vs. the Phillies. In the AL East, they are 4th and trail the Red Sox by three games for the final Wild Card spot.

As the road team today, the Rays are 34-37 this season. They have been just above .500 at home, going 37-38. As the underdog, Tampa Bay is 36-45 this year, and they are 35-30 when favored. Tampa Bay’s overall series record is 22-19-6 this year.

Led by a big game by Austin Hedges at the plate, the Guardians are coming off a 6-4 win over the White Sox to close out their series. Hedges went only 1/3, but it was a home run, and he drove in three runs. The Guardians really broke things open with a three-run 3rd inning. Cleveland was the -238 favorite going into the game.

Matthew Boyd got the start for the Guardians, going 4 1/3 innings, and giving up just one run on six hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and got the win.

Cleveland will host the Rays today with an overall record of 84-62, good for 1st place in the AL Central. The Guardians lead the Royals by 4.5 games for the top spot in the division. They have won three straight games and closed out their series vs. the White Sox with three straight wins.

At home, the Guardians are 43-25 this season and have gone 41-37 on the road. As the favorite, Cleveland is 59-30 this year and 38-18 when favored at home. Their overall series record is 27-15-5 this year.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under

When the Tampa Bay Rays are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 65-73 overall. When the line is set at 8 runs, their over/under record is 16-20-1. So far this season, 31.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 runs.

For the season, the Rays are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is the worst mark in the MLB. They are also near the bottom of the league in home runs and batting average. However, they do have a few players who have been swinging the bat well of late. Yandy Diaz has gone 11/31 in his last eight games and is also on a four-game hitting streak. Over this stretch, he has two homers and six RBIs. Jonny DeLuca is also swinging a hot bat, going 13/36 in his last 10 games.

Christopher Morel and Jose Siri are both near the top of the Rays’ home run leaderboard, but they are batting just .196 and .184, respectively. Morel has 57 RBIs this season, which is 2nd on the team, while Siri is 4th at 43 RBIs.

Today’s over/under line for the Cleveland Guardians game against the Tampa Bay Rays is set at 8 runs. The Guardians have played in 69 games with over/under lines set above 8 runs, which accounts for 47.3% of their games this season. Their over/under record for the season is 66-69, and their combined run average is 8.5 runs per game.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in the league. At home, they have been even better, averaging 4.9 runs per game. As a team, they are batting just .239, which is 15th in the league, but they have been good at avoiding strikeouts and are 10th in the league in home runs. Cleveland’s team BABIP of .27 is the worst in the league.

Jose Ramirez has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 34 home runs are 8th in the league. His 106 RBIs are 2nd in the league. Over his last seven games, Lane Thomas is hitting .357 with two homers and 10 RBIs. He is also on a seven-game hitting streak.

Rays vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread

When the Rays are on the road, they are 41-30 against the run line, with an average run margin of -0.5 runs per game. They are 51-30 against the run line as an underdog, compared to 24-41 as a favorite. In their wins, they have an average run margin of +2.8 runs per game, while in their losses, it’s -3.4 runs per game.

Ryan Pepiot gets the start for the Rays today as he faces off against the Guardians on the road. So far this season, he has made 22 starts and has a record of 8-6 with a 3.66 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Pepiot has a WHIP of 1.14 and opponents are batting .207 this season. In his last outing, Pepiot picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up just one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Pepiot has been much better on the road, coming in with a 5-3 record and 3.53 ERA compared to 3-3 with a 4.73 ERA at home.

The Guardians have been a solid run line bet at home this season, going 33-35. They have a run line record of 74-72 overall, and their average run margin is +0.5 runs per game. They have covered the run line in five straight games, and their average run margin in wins is +3.3 runs per game.

Gavin Williams will be looking to rebound from a rough outing vs. the Dodgers, as he gave up five earned runs in just two-thirds of an inning of work. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Before that outing, Williams had pitched well, giving up two earned runs or fewer in three straight starts. Williams’ record for the season is 3-8, and his ERA is 5.25. At home, he is 0-5 with an 8.04 ERA. Williams has a WHIP of 1.37 and is averaging 9.6 strikeouts per nine innings.

Rays vs. Guardians Pick: Guardians ML -142

Our pick for this Rays vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Guardians on the money line at -142. We see the Guardians coming out on top by a score of 5-4, giving us some wiggle room with the money line.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Gavin Williams finishing with seven strikeouts, which is the second-best among all starters today. As for Ryan Pepiot, we have him finishing with just four strikeouts, which is the third worst among all starters.