Pirates vs Yankees Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 28th
At 1:05 PM ET, the Pirates and Yankees square off in an interleague matchup. This one is being played at Yankee Stadium in New York, and the Yankees are the heavy favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -134 compared to the Pirates at +114. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Paul Skenes will be starting for the Pirates, while the Yankees are sending Luis Gil to the mound. Pittsburgh is 75-85, putting them 5th in the NL Central, while the Yankees are 93-67 and are 1st in the AL East. MLBN will be televising Saturday’s matchup.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Pirates 1.5 (-198) | Yankees -1.5 (+161)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Pirates +114 | Yankees -134
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction: Moneyline
Pittsburgh picked up a 4-2 road win over the Yankees in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates offense got off to a fast start, scoring three runs in the first and adding their final run in the 2nd. On the other side, the Yankees got on the board with two runs in the 5th.
Jared Jones only went 4 1/3 innings for the Pirates but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued two walks. Carmen Mlodzinski got the win out of the bullpen, and Aroldis Chapman got the save.
Carlos Rodon had a rough outing for the Yankees, going just 5 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs on four hits. He did finish the game with five strikeouts. Tommy Kahnle took the loss.
Pittsburgh is 75-85 overall, which is good for 5th place in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Reds by just one game for the 4th spot in the division. The Pirates are 17 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. So far, they have gone 25-27 in divisional games.
At home, the Pirates are 39-42 this season and 36-43 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh has gone 41-57 this year and 34-28 as the favorite. The Pirates have dropped four straight series and are 20-25-6 in series this year.
The Yankees are 93-67 overall this season, putting them 1st in the AL East. Currently, they lead the Orioles by four games for the top spot in the division. So far, they are just .500 in divisional games, going 26-26. New York is the favorite today, and they have a record of 75-59 when favored this year.
At home, the Yankees are 43-36 this season, and they have been really good on the road at 50-31. New York has an overall series record of 30-17-4, and they have won three straight series on the road. So far, they are 18-8 as the underdog.
Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction: Over/Under
The Pirates have played in 115 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs this season, which is the highest percentage in the league at 71.9%. Their games have averaged 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 76-82 on the year. Their current under streak is at three games.
Heading into today’s game, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz are the Pirates’ top home run hitters this season, with 24 and 21 home runs, respectively. Reynolds also comes into the game with a team-high 88 RBIs and is batting .276 for the season. Cruz is hitting .262 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 76 RBIs. Bryan De La Cruz is also at 21 homers this season but has struggled with a batting average of just .233.
Over his last eight games, Billy Cook has gone 6/21 with two homers and four RBIs, while Bryan De La Cruz has also gone deep twice but is just 5/28 in his last eight games. Bryan Reynolds has also gone deep twice in his last nine games but is batting just .212 during that stretch.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs for the New York Yankees-Pittsburgh Pirates game is lower than the average over/under line for Yankees games this season, which is 8 runs. The Yankees have played 138 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which is 86.2% of their games this season. Their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game, and their over/under record is 84-71 for the season.
Not only do the Yankees lead the league in home runs this season, but they also have the top offense in the league, averaging 5 runs per game. This is also the best mark in the league. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .249, which is 7th in the league, and have the best team on-base percentage in the league.
Aaron Judge has been on a tear of late, going 6/12 in his last four games with four homers and seven RBIs. For the season, he is batting .325 and leads the league with 144 RBIs. Juan Soto is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he is 4th in the league with 41 homers.
Pirates vs. Yankees Prediction: Spread
When the Pirates have won, they have done so by an average of 3.1 runs per game. In their losses, they have been outscored by an average of 3.6 runs. They have been a good bet against the run line overall, going 85-75. They have been especially good on the road, going 46-33 on the run line. They have covered the run line in two straight games and have been a good bet as the underdog, going 61-37.
Pittsburgh is sending right-hander Paul Skenes to the mound today as he faces the Yankees on the road. Skenes has made 22 starts this year and has a record of 11-3 with a 1.99 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Skenes has a WHIP of .96 and has turned in 15 quality starts. In his last outing, Skenes didn’t allow a run, picking up the win in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least one earned run in three straight starts. Skenes has been particularly tough on the road, coming in with a record of 5-2 and an ERA of 1.35.
The Yankees are a good team to bet on the run line with, as they have a positive run differential on the season and are 83-77 against the run line. They are 34-45 against the run line at home, but 49-32 against the run line on the road. They are 61-73 against the run line as the favorite, but 22-4 against the run line as the underdog.
New York starter Luis Gil has been pitching well recently, as he has picked up the win in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he faced the Athletics on September 22nd and gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. Looking back at his last 28 games, Gil has a record of 15-6 and an ERA of 3.27. Opponents are batting .180 off the right-hander this season. Gil has made 10 quality starts this year and is averaging 10.23 strikeouts per nine innings. For the season, he has allowed 14 homers and is averaging 4.68 walks per nine innings at home compared to 3.84 on the road.
Pirates vs. Yankees Pick: Yankees ML -134
There are a few ways you could look to bet on this Yankees vs. Pirates matchup, but we see the best value coming on the money line, with the Yankees taking this one at home. At the current odds, the Yankees are sitting at -134 to win, and we have them taking this one 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Luis Gil finishing with six strikeouts compared to Paul Skenes with five. If you’re looking to bet on the over/under, the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have this one going over.
