Pirates vs Reds Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 20th

From Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, we have the Pirates and Reds facing off in an NL Central matchup. This one gets started at 6:40 PM ET, and it is being televised by SN PT.

The Reds are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -124 compared to the Pirates at +105. Nick Martinez is starting for the Reds, and they are looking to end a two-game losing streak. The Pirates have Mitch Keller on the mound, and they are 72-81, putting them 5th in the NL Central.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Pirates 1.5 (-195) | Reds -1.5 (+158)
• Total: 9
• MoneyLine: Pirates +105 | Reds -124

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Moneyline

Heading into their last game vs. the Cardinals, the Pirates closed out the series with a 3-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the slight favorite at +126 on the money line. It was a good start for the Pirates, as they got on the board with a run in the 4th inning and added another run in the 7th to take the lead. Pittsburgh’s offense scored their third run of the game in the 8th to close things out. Yasmani Grandal went 1/3 with a homer and two RBIs.

Luis Ortiz put together a good start for the Pirates, going six innings and giving up just two runs on five hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win.

Pittsburgh is on the road today, heading into their matchup with the Reds two games below .500 at 72-81. The Pirates are in 5th place in the NL Central, two games behind the Reds for 4th place. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 16 games in the NL Central.

At home, the Pirates are 38-40 this season, and they are just one game under .500 at 34-41 on the road. As the underdog, Pittsburgh is 38-53 this season compared to 34-28 as the favorite. The Pirates have dropped two straight series and have an overall series record of 19-23-6.

The Reds will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Braves with a 15-3 loss. Cincinnati was the +182 underdog at home going into this matchup. Things really got away from the Reds in the 4th inning, as the Braves scored seven runs in the inning. Cincinnati’s offense scored their only three runs in the 3rd.

Julian Aguiar got the start for the Reds and took the loss. He only lasted four innings, giving up seven earned runs. Offensively, the Reds had 10 hits but only scored three runs. Blake Dunn had a homer and was only json the bases three times.

Cincinnati is 74-80 overall and trail the Brewers by 14.5 games in the NL Central. The Reds are also 4th in the division, three games behind the Cardinals for the 3rd spot in the division. The Reds lost the first two games of their series vs. the Braves but won the final game.

At home, the Reds are 37-41 this season compared to 37-39 on the road. So far, they have dropped two straight at home as the favorite. As the favorite overall, the Reds are 33-33 and 41-47 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3, and they are 5-5 over their last ten games.

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Over/Under

When the Pittsburgh Pirates are on the road, the over/under line is set at 9 runs. Their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 74-77. The average over/under line for their games is set at 8 runs, and when the line is set at 9 runs, their record is 4-10-1. Only 4.6% of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 9 runs, with the majority of their games having lower lines.

For the season, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the league. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.3 runs per game. Overall, they are batting just .236 and are near the bottom of the league in home runs. One thing they have done well is avoid strikeouts, as they are 26th in the league in strikeouts per game.

Bryan Reynolds has been the Pirates’ top offensive player this season, as he is batting .280 with a team-high 22 home runs and 85 RBIs. He comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak. Andrew McCutchen and Bryan De La Cruz are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers apiece.

The Reds have played to the over in 72 of their 147 games this season, with an average O/U line of 9 runs. When the line is set at 9 runs, the over has hit in just 33.3% of their games (8-20-5). Cincinnati’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season.

Elly De La Cruz comes into the game as the Reds’ top home run hitter this season, and he is also 2nd on the team in RBIs. De La Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat of late, as he has gone 9/19 in his last five games. This has helped him raise his season average to .260. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also tied for 2nd on the team with 20 homers, but both players are batting under .230 for the season.

As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. They have been pretty consistent at home and on the road, as they are 15th in both categories. Overall, the Reds are batting just .233, which is 17th in the league.

Pirates vs. Reds Prediction: Spread

When the Pirates win, they win big, averaging a run margin of +3.2. But when they lose, it’s usually by a wide margin, as they average a run margin of -3.6 in losses. They’ve been a good bet on the run line overall, going 82-71, but have been better on the road, going 44-31. They’ve been especially good on the run line as the underdog, going 58-33.

Pittsburgh is sending Mitch Keller to the mound today vs. the Reds. The right-hander has made 29 starts this year and has a record of 11-10. Keller’s ERA is 3.87, along with a WHIP of 1.25. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in 15 quality starts and is coming off a rough outing vs. the Royals, where he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work. Keller took the loss in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .247 off Keller this season.

The Reds are 36-42 against the run line at home this season, and their average run margin is -0.5 runs per game. They have lost their last two home games against the run line, and they are 27-39 against the run line as the favorite this season. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8 runs per game.

Cincinnati is sending right-hander Nick Martinez to the mound today vs. the Pirates. He has made 14 starts this season and has a record of 9-6 with a 3.37 ERA. Out of his 40 appearances, Martinez has turned in four quality starts and is averaging 7.29 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he went six innings, giving up one earned run and picking up the win. Before that, he had gone seven innings without giving up an earned run. So, he comes into the game with a streak of 13 innings without giving up an earned run.

Pirates vs. Reds Pick: Reds ML -124

There is a lot of value in taking the Reds on the money line at -124. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Reds, and at this price, they are a great pick to win outright.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Nick Martinez is projected to finish with four strikeouts, which is third worst among today’s starters. As for Mitch Keller, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which has him right in the middle of today’s starters.