Phillies vs Nationals Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 29th
At 3:05 PM ET, the Phillies and Nationals face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Nationals Park in Washington, and the Phillies are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -179 compared to the Nationals at +150. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs.
Philadelphia will be looking to end a two-game losing streak and is 94-67 overall, while the Nationals have won two straight and are 71-90. Jake Irvin is starting for the Nationals, and he is facing off against Aaron Nola. MASN is carrying this game on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-106) | Nationals 1.5 (-115)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -179 | Nationals +150
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Moneyline
It was all Washington in the last game of this series, as the Nationals took down the Phillies by a score of 6-3. The Nationals offense only had two more hits than the Phillies and struck out 14 times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at +173 on the money line.
This game featured a starting pitching matchup between Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and MacKenzie Gore for the Nationals. Wheeler went 6 1/3 innings and gave up just two hits and two earned runs, but took the loss. Gore only went six innings for the Nationals, but didn’t give up a run and got the win.
Washington’s two homers came from James Wood and Joey Gallo. Wood, Keibert Ruiz, and Dylan Crews each had two hits and two RBIs for the Nationals’ offense.
With an overall record of 94-67, the Phillies lead the NL East by five games over the Braves. The Phillies have dropped two straight games, and this came after winning four in a row. Their two most recent wins were the final two games of a series vs. the Braves. In the NL East, they have gone 28-23 this season.
Philadelphia has been really good at home this season, going 54-27. On the road, the Phillies are an even 40-40 this season. As the favorite, the Phillies are 81-49 this season and 13-18 as the underdog. So far, they have gone 28-25 as the favorite on the road, and their overall series record is 27-18-7.
Washington is 4th in the NL East with an overall record of 71-90. They trail the Phillies by 23 games for the NL East lead. The Nationals have an even record of 25-26 against other NL East teams. The Nationals have won two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last 10 contests.
At home, the Nationals are 38-42 this season compared to 33-48 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 56-77 this season, and they have won two straight games as the underdog. Washington’s overall series record is 19-25-6, and they have dropped three straight series.
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Over/Under
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Washington Nationals. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Phillies have had an over/under record of 77-75 this season, with an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 7.5 runs, their record is 15-16. The combined run average in their games this season is 9.0 runs per game. The over has hit in their last four games.
The Phillies come into today’s game as one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 7th in the league in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. One of the reasons for their success has been their ability to avoid strikeouts, as they are just 16th in the league in strikeouts.
Over his last six games, Kyle Schwarber has hit just .174 for the Phillies, but he has gone deep twice during that stretch. For the season, he is batting .248 with 38 homers, which is 6th in the MLB. Nick Castellanos has been red hot for the Phillies, going 10/20 over his last six games and is currently on a nine-game hitting streak.
With an over/under line of 7.5 runs, the Washington Nationals have seen their games go over the total in 17 out of 29 games (58.6%) this season when the line has been set at that number. The Nationals have an over/under record of 76-79 on the season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Washington is currently on a three-game over streak.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are just 25th in the league in runs per game at 4.1. This is also the 26th ranked home run hitting team in the league. However, they do come in as one of the league’s best teams at not striking out. So, while they don’t have a lot of power, they do put the ball in play.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams have been the team’s top power threats this season, as they have 17 and 20 homers, respectively. Garcia Jr. comes into the game on a three-game hitting streak, while James Wood has gone 10/33 in his last nine games with two homers.
Phillies vs. Nationals Prediction: Spread
Despite their losing streak against the run line, the Phillies have been a solid bet overall this season, posting a 77-84 record. They have been a much better bet at home, where they are 37-44 against the run line, compared to 40-40 on the road. Their average run margin for the season is +0.7 runs per game, with a scoring margin of +1.1 runs per game at home and +0.3 runs per game on the road.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Nationals on the road. He has made 32 starts this season and has a record of 13-8 with a 3.52 ERA. Nola’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.18. In his 32 appearances, he has turned in 20 quality starts and is averaging 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Nola’s last outing came on September 23rd, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.
The Nationals are 43-37 vs. the run line at home this season and have covered in two straight games. They are 89-72 overall vs. the run line and 46-35 on the road. As the underdog, they are 76-57 vs. the run line, compared to 13-15 as the favorite. Their average run differential in wins is +3.4, while their average run differential in losses is -3.8.
Jake Irvin will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Cubs, as he gets the start for the Nationals today. Against the Cubs, he gave up five earned runs in four innings of work, taking the loss. Looking back over his last four outings, Irvin has finished with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 4.22. For the season, he is 10-13 with a 4.22 ERA and has given up a total of 29 homers. Out of his 32 starts, Irvin has turned in 16 quality starts and is averaging 7.51 strikeouts per nine innings.
Phillies vs. Nationals Pick: Nationals ML +150
Our predicted score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Nationals, and with them being the underdog at +150, that is the way we recommend playing this one. We actually have the Nationals’ money line at +150, and with the over/under sitting at 7.5 runs, we would take the over if you’re looking for a second bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Jake Irvin going five innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Aaron Nola, we have him going six innings and finishing with six strikeouts. Nola is projected to finish with 13th most strikeouts among starters today.
