Phillies vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 22nd
At 7:15 PM ET, the Phillies and Mets square off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citi Field in New York, and the Phillies are the division leaders with a record of 92-63, while the Mets are 2nd in the NL East at 86-69.
ESPN is carrying Sunday’s TV coverage, and the money line odds have the Phillies at -158 compared to the Mets at +133. The over/under line is currently 6.5 runs, and today’s starting pitching matchup is Zack Wheeler for the Phillies and Tylor Megill for the Mets.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+110) | Mets 1.5 (-133)
- Total: 6.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -158 | Mets +133
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline
New York picked up a 6-3 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a two-run lead after the 2nd inning and added three insurance runs in the 7th. As for the Phillies, they scored their final run in the 8th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -117 on the money line.
Sean Manaea started for the Mets and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up three earned runs. He finished the game with six strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. On the other side, Ranger Suarez got the start for the Phillies and took the loss, giving up two earned runs in five innings of work.
New York’s offense was led by Francisco Alvarez and Luisangel Acuna, as they were the only two Mets hitters to have more than one hit. Alvarez hit the game’s only home run while going 2/4 with three RBIs.
With an overall record of 92-63, the Phillies lead the NL East by six games over the Mets. The Phillies have gone 28-20 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have been really good at home, going 52-26, and they are above .500 on the road, with a record of 40-37.
Philadelphia has dropped two of the first three games of this series vs. the Mets. This season, they are 79-45 as the favorite and 28-22 when favored on the road. The Phillies’ overall series record is 25-17-7, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
The Mets are 86-69 overall and trail the Phillies by six games for the NL East lead. New York has gone 28-20 against other teams in the division. The Mets have taken two of the first three games of this series vs. the Phillies and are playing at home today.
At home, the Mets are 45-35 this season compared to a 41-34 mark on the road. New York has dropped three straight games as the underdog, and they are 28-32 as the underdog overall. As the favorite, the Mets are 58-37 this season, and they have an overall series record of 27-15-8.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under
Philadelphia is on the road in New York to face the Mets, with the over/under line set at 6.5 runs. The Phillies have played in games with an average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 73-74. The over has hit in each of their last three games, and they have played in games with an average line of eight runs.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 4th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, putting up 5 runs per contest. As a team, they are batting .258, which is the 4th best mark in the league, and are also among the league leaders in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS. The Phillies have been one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts this season.
Kyle Schwarber has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 36 home runs are the best mark in the league. He is also 11th in the league with 99 RBIs. Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm have also been big run producers this season, with Harper’s 86 RBIs being 3rd on the team and Bohm’s 94 RBIs being the 2nd best mark in the league.
The New York Mets will host the Philadelphia Phillies today with an over/under line of 6.5 runs. The Mets have been involved in games with an average of 9.1 runs per game this season. They have an over/under record of 79-71 for the season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. The over has hit in their last five games.
Heading into today’s game, the Mets are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been especially good at home, where they are also averaging 4.8 runs per contest. Overall, the Mets are 6th in home runs and have the 9th ranked team batting average in the league. New York’s offense is also one of the better teams in terms of drawing walks.
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have been two of the Mets’ top power threats this season, with Alonso leading the team with 34 homers and Lindor right behind him at 31. Lindor is batting .271 for the season, while Alonso’s batting average is at .245. Lindor and Francisco Alvarez are both on four-game hitting streaks, with Alvarez going 5/16 in his last five games.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Spread
When the Phillies win, they do so by an average of 3.9 runs per game, and they have a run line record of 75-80 on the season. They have covered the run line in two straight games and are 40-37 against the run line on the road. Overall, they have a run line record of 59-65 when favored and 16-15 when the underdog.
Right-hander Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces his former team, the Mets. Wheeler has been excellent this season, going 16-6 with a 2.56 ERA. In his 30 starts, he has turned in 24 quality starts and has a WHIP of 0.95. Wheeler has been especially tough at home, coming in with a record of 10-3 and an ERA of 2.56. On the road, he is 6-3 with a 3.49 ERA. Wheeler has won his last four starts, most recently giving up just one earned run in seven innings of work against the Brewers. He has allowed just one homer in each of his last three outings.
When betting the run line on the Mets this season, it’s been a better proposition to take them on the road, where they are 42-33 compared to 37-43 at home. They have been a run line underdog in 60 games, and they have covered the run line in 35 of those games. Their average run differential in games they’ve won is 3.8, while in losses, it’s -3.5.
New York starter Tylor Megill will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win. Against the Nationals on September 17th, he went six innings, giving up just one earned run. Looking at his overall numbers, Megill has made 13 starts and three of them have been quality starts. His record for the season is 4-5, and his ERA is 4.08. Opposing batters are hitting .217 off Megill this season. Per nine innings, he is averaging 10.14 strikeouts and 3.69 walks.
Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Mets ML +133
Given that the Mets are the underdogs in this one, we see them as a great value pick with a money line payout of +133. Our predicted final score is 6-4 in favor of the Mets, giving us some room to take the Mets on the run line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler has a good chance to pick up a win, but his odds are not as good as Tylor Megill’s. Megill is projected to finish with six strikeouts compared to Wheeler with seven.
