Phillies vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 21st
From Citi Field in New York, we have the Phillies and Mets facing off in an NL East matchup. First pitch is set for 4:10 PM ET, and the Phillies are the slight money line favorite (-108). The money line odds for the Mets are at -109, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
SNY will be televising this Phillies-Mets matchup, and Sean Manaea will be on the mound for the Mets. The Phillies are starting Ranger Suarez, and they are currently 1st in the NL East with a record of 92-62. The Mets are 2nd in the division at 85-69.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+156) | Mets 1.5 (-193)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -108 | Mets -109
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline
Philadelphia cruised to a 12-2 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Phillies had a huge 4th inning, scoring six of their twelve runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only two runs in the 1st. Heading into the game, the Phillies were favored at -119.
Cristopher Sanchez only went five innings for the Phillies but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued five walks. On the other side, David Peterson was tagged for four homers and four runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto each homered for the Phillies, while Nick Castellanos went 3/5 with two RBIs. Johan Rojas also had a two-hit game and scored three times for Philadelphia’s offense.
With an overall record of 92-62, the Phillies lead the NL East by seven games over the Mets. The Phillies are 28-19 against other teams in the NL East. Philadelphia has won two straight games as the favorite, and they are 79-45 when favored this season. As for their record as the road favorite, they are 28-22 this year.
At home, the Phillies have been very good this year, going 52-26. On the road, they are just above .500 at 40-36. Heading into game three of their series vs. the Mets, the Phillies are 25-17-7 in series this year. Over their last 10 games, the Phillies are 6-4.
With an overall record of 85-69, the Mets are seven games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. New York is 27-20 in divisional matchups this season. The Mets will take on the Phillies at home today, and they are 44-35 at home compared to 41-34 on the road.
As the underdog, the Mets have dropped three straight, and they are 28-32 as the underdog overall. New York has been good as the favorite, putting together a record of 57-37. The Mets’ overall series record is 27-15-8, and they are 1-1 in their current series vs. the Phillies.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the New York Mets, and the over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 72-74. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 14-16. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs this season, and 72.1% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs. Their current over streak is at 2 games.
As a team, the Phillies are averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 4th in the league. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per game. Overall, they are one of the league’s best-hitting teams, with a team batting average of .259, which is 4th in the MLB. Philadelphia also has the 3rd best on-base percentage in the league and have the 4th best OPS in the league.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are both among the league leaders in home runs, with Schwarber’s 35 homers leading the Phillies and being the 8th best mark in the league. Schwarber also comes into the game with a five-game hitting streak. Harper has struggled a bit of late, hitting just .235 over his last nine games.
The New York Mets are playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have had a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 78-71. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and they have gone over the 7.5-run line in 20 of their 36 games this season. The over has hit in four straight games for the Mets.
Francisco Alvarez has been swinging a hot bat for the Mets, going 7/28 with four homers over his last nine games. Jose Iglesias is also on a hot streak, hitting .415 over his last ten games. This has helped him extend his hitting streak to 14 games. Overall, Iglesias has just one homer during this stretch.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. New York comes into the game with the 6th most homers in the league and have the 8th best team slugging percentage in the league.
Phillies vs. Mets Prediction: Spread
The Phillies are 40-36 against the run line on the road this season, and their average run margin in those games is +0.5. They are 16-14 against the run line as an underdog and 59-65 as a favorite. Their average run margin for the season is +0.8, and they have gone over the run line in their last two games.
Left-hander Ranger Suárez gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Mets on the road. This year, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 12-7 with a 3.13 ERA. Suárez’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.14. In his last outing, he took the loss, going five innings and giving up three earned runs on five hits. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Suárez has one complete game shutout this year and 11 quality starts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 8.71 strikeouts and just 2.26 walks.
When the Mets win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, which has helped them to a run line record of 78-76. They are 36-43 against the run line at home, where they have an average scoring margin of +0.6 runs per game.
Sean Manaea will be looking to build off his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Nationals on September 16th, he went seven innings, giving up just one earned run on six hits. Looking back over his last three outings, Manaea has finished with a no-decision in each one. He has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 11-5 with a 3.26 ERA. Out of his 30 starts, Manaea has 14 quality starts and is averaging 9.32 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has allowed 18 homers and is averaging 3.21 walks per nine innings.
Phillies vs. Mets Pick: Mets ML -109
Our predicted final score for this Phillies and Mets matchup is 6-5 in favor of the Mets. With the Mets’ money line sitting at -109, we see this as a great value pick for today’s game.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Sean Manaea is projected to finish with six strikeouts, and his chances of picking up a win are right in the middle of today’s starters. As for Ranger Suarez, we have him finishing with five K’s and his chances of getting a win are the eighth best.
