Phillies vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 8th
At 1:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Phillies are the division leaders with a record of 85-57, while the Marlins are 5th in the NL East at 53-89.
Philadelphia is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs. Edward Cabrera is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Seth Johnson for the Phillies. NSPPH is carrying this one on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+126) | Marlins 1.5 (-154)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -133 | Marlins +111
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
Miami cruised to a 9-5 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a huge 7th inning, scoring three of their nine runs and picking up three of their eight hits. As for the Phillies, they scored their final run in the 5th and could only muster two hits after that.
Darren McCaughan got the win for the Marlins, going just 4 2/3 innings but giving up just two hits and two earned runs. Aaron Nola had a rough outing for the Phillies, taking the loss after going just 4 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on nine hits.
Miami’s offense was led by a big game from Otto Lopez, who went 3/5 with a home run and three RBIs. Both Connor Norby and Jonah Bride each drove in three for the Marlins’ offense.
Philadelphia is 85-57 overall this season, putting them 1st in the NL East. Currently, they lead the Mets by 7.0 games for the top spot in the division. The Phillies have gone 25-16 against other teams in the NL East.
So far, the Phillies have been really good at home, going 47-25. On the road, they are 38-32 this season. As the favorite, Philadelphia has gone 72-42 and they are 13-15 as the underdog. The Phillies have an overall series record of 24-16-6 and have won four straight series.
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 53-89, putting them 32 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 15-29 in divisional games. The Marlins are looking to bounce back in today’s game, as they are 27-47 at home this year.
As the underdog, the Marlins are 49-75 this season compared to 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-8, and they are losing the series vs. the Phillies 1-2.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road against the Miami Marlins today, with the Over/Under line set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 9.0 runs, and their Over/Under record is 66-69. When the O/U line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-14. Overall, 29.6% of their games have had higher O/U lines than 8.5 runs, and their current Over streak is at 2 games.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are one of the league’s top-scoring offenses, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 3rd in batting average and have the league’s 8th ranked home run total. Philadelphia’s offense has been patient at the plate, as they are 7th in walks and have the league’s 2nd best team BABIP.
Kyle Schwarber has been on a tear of late, going 11/23 in his last five games with five home runs and 11 RBIs. For the season, Schwarber is 9th in the league with 33 home runs. He is also 1st on the team in RBIs, with 93. Alec Bohm and Bryce Harper have also been key run producers for the Phillies, with Bohm’s 89 RBIs being 2nd on the team and Harper’s 78 RBIs being 3rd.
The Miami Marlins are playing as the home team against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than the teams’ combined run average of 9.0 runs per game. The Marlins have a 77-61 over/under record for the season, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line has been set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 26-23. Miami has played 26 games with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs this season, accounting for 18.3% of their games. The over has hit in their last two games.
For the season, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per game. Miami has been one of the worst home run-hitting teams in the league this season, and they also have the league’s worst walk rate.
Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with Burger leading the team with 25 homers and Sánchez right behind him at 17. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs, while Sánchez is 2nd at 59. Over his last seven games, Connor Norby is hitting .276 with two homers and five RBIs.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
Philadelphia has been a pretty good bet on the run line this season, going 70-72, but they’ve been especially good on the road, going 37-33. Their average scoring margin on the road is +0.6 runs per game, which is slightly lower than their overall average of +0.9 runs per game. They’ve been a better bet on the run line as the favorite, going 55-59 compared to 15-13 as the underdog.
For today’s game against the Marlins, the Phillies will rely on Seth Johnson to set the tone. It’s his debut for the season and he’s looking to put together a strong start in his debut.
The Marlins have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 66-76 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 35-33, compared to 31-43 at home. They have been a much better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 64-60, compared to just 2-16 as the favorite. Their average run differential in losing games is -3.9, compared to +2.7 in winning games.
Miami is starting right-hander Edward Cabrera vs. the Phillies today. He has made 16 starts this year and has a record of 3-6 with a 5.33 ERA. Cabrera’s WHIP for the season is 1.47. In his 16 starts, he has turned in three quality starts and is averaging 9.95 strikeouts per nine innings. The last time he pitched, Cabrera picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that outing, he had given up at least three earned runs in three straight starts. Opponents are batting .230 off Cabrera this season.
Phillies vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +111
We see the Marlins coming away with a 5-4 win over the Phillies in this one. With the money line sitting at +111, that is the route we recommend going. Offensively, the Marlins are projected to finish with just five hits, but they are also projected to pick up the win.
Looking at Edward Cabrera’s projections, we have him going seven innings, finishing with six strikeouts, and giving up two earned runs. If you’re looking for a strikeout prop, you could take Cabrera, as he is projected to finish with six K’s.
