Phillies vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 7th
First pitch for this NL East matchup is set for 4:10 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami, FL. The Phillies are currently on a six-game winning streak and are 85-56, which has them in 1st place in the NL East. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East with a record of 52-89.
Philadelphia has Aaron Nola on the mound, while the Marlins are starting Darren McCaughan. The Phillies are heavy road favorites, with their money line odds sitting at -240 compared to the Marlins at +198. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs, and this game can be seen on NSPPH.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (-137) | Marlins 1.5 (+114)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -240 | Marlins +198
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
Despite being the heavy favorites on the road, the Phillies picked up a 16-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. Philadelphia’s offense got off to a fast start, scoring three runs in the first and adding four more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Marlins got on the board with one run in the 4th and added their final run in the 5th.
Zack Wheeler only went six innings for the Phillies but gave up just one run and two hits. He finished the game with seven strikeouts but issued one walk. As for the Marlins, Austin Kitchen was tagged for six runs in just two innings of work. He gave up nine hits and struck out one.
Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber each homered for the Phillies, while Bryce Harper went 3/5 with two RBIs. Kody Clemens also had a three-hit game and drove in a run. Johan Rojas scored three times for Philadelphia’s offense.
Philadelphia is on a six-game winning streak, and they lead the NL East with an overall record of 85-56. The Phillies hold an eight-game lead over the Mets for the division lead. So far, they have gone 25-15 against other teams in the NL East.
At home, the Phillies have been really good this year, going 47-25. On the road, they are 38-31 and have won six straight. This season, the Phillies are 72-41 as the favorite and 26-19 when favored on the road. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 24-16-6, and they have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road.
Miami is 52-89 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 33 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have really struggled against other NL East teams, going 14-29 in the division this year. They Marlins have dropped two straight games and are 0-2 in the series vs. the Phillies.
So far, the Marlins are just 4-14 when favored this year and 22-33 as the underdog at home. On the road, Miami is 26-42 as the underdog. The Marlins have an overall series record of 11-25-8 this year, and they are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
When the Phillies play on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. Overall, their over/under record is 65-69, and their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their over/under record is 13-14. In 42 of their games, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 29.8% of their games. In 72 games, the over/under line has been set below 8.5 runs, which is 51.1% of their games.
Philadelphia’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game, which is 5th in the MLB. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. The Phillies are also one of the league’s top home run-hitting teams, coming in 8th in the league. As a team, they are batting .260, which is the 3rd best mark in the league.
Over his last five games, Kyle Schwarber has been on fire, going 11/24 with five homers and 10 RBIs. For the season, Schwarber is batting .249 and is 9th in the league with 33 home runs. This season, he is also 1st on the team in RBIs (92). Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm are also near the top of the Phillies’ home run leaderboard, with Harper having 26 and Bohm at 13.
Today’s over/under line of 8.5 runs is slightly lower than the Miami Marlins’ average combined run total of 9.0 runs per game this season. The Marlins have played 26 games with over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 25-23. Overall, Miami has a 76-61 over/under record this season, and the average over/under line in their games is 8 runs.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this season, which is the worst in the league. They have been slightly better at home, averaging 4 runs per game. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and on-base percentage.
Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with Burger leading the team with 25 homers and Sánchez right behind him at 17. Burger also leads the team with 60 RBIs, while Sánchez has driven in 58 runs. Derek Hill has three homers in his last six games and is 5/18 over that stretch, while Otto Lopez is hitting .308 over his last 10 games.
Phillies vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
Philadelphia has been a solid bet against the run line on the road this season, going 37-32. The Phillies have covered the run line in six straight road games and three straight overall. They have an average run margin of 0.9 runs per game this season, and their average run margin in winning games is +4.0.
Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Nola has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 12-6 with an ERA of 3.29. Looking at his overall numbers, Nola has a WHIP of 1.15 and has pitched one shutout and one complete game this year. Nola’s last outing came against the Braves, where he finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in six innings of work. Before that outing, he had gone three straight starts without giving up an earned run. Per nine innings, Nola is averaging 8.46 strikeouts and just 2.25 walks.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they are a solid bet against the run line, going 63-60. Their average run margin in losses is -3.9, and they have covered the run line in 35 of 68 road games this season.
Miami is starting right-hander Darren McCaughan today vs. the Phillies. He has made one start and six appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with an ERA of 8.24. McCaughan’s WHIP for the season is 1.98, and he has allowed a total of six home runs. In his most recent outing, McCaughan faced the Giants and finished with a no-decision. He gave up three earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back at his last three outings, McCaughan has finished with a no-decision in each appearance. Per nine innings, he has 4.58 walks compared to 4.58 strikeouts.
Phillies vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +198
With the Marlins at +198 to pick up a win at home, we see this as a great opportunity to take advantage of the money line payout. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Marlins, giving us some room to take the Marlins on the money line.
Looking at some of the projections for Aaron Nola, we have him finishing with just five strikeouts, which has him ranked 19th among starters. We also have his final line finishing with six hits and two earned runs. As for the Phillies, they are projected to finish with just eight hits, which is the third-lowest in the league today.
