Phillies vs Brewers Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 17th
At 7:40 PM ET, the Phillies and Brewers face off in an NL matchup. This one is taking place at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Phillies are the slight favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -141 compared to the Brewers at +120. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Frankie Montas will be going for the Brewers, while the Phillies are starting Zack Wheeler. Philadelphia is 90-60 this season, while the Brewers are 87-63. This puts them both in first place in their respective divisions.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+121) | Brewers 1.5 (-146)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Phillies -141 | Brewers +120
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction: Moneyline
Despite coming in as the slight underdogs on the road, the Phillies picked up a 6-2 win over the Brewers in the most recent game of this series. Milwaukee’s offense got off to a fast start, scoring two runs in the first and adding three more in the 3rd. On the other side, the Phillies got on the board with one run in the 5th and added their final run in the 7th.
Ranger Suarez only went five innings for the Phillies but gave up just three hits and three earned runs. Aaron Civale struggled on the mound for the Brewers, going just five innings and giving up seven hits and one earned run. He did finish the game with six strikeouts.
Brandon Marsh and Kyle Schwarber each homered for the Phillies, while Bryce Harper went 2/4 with two RBIs. Trea Turner also had a two-hit game and scored a run for Philadelphia’s offense.
With an overall record of 90-60, the Phillies lead the NL East by eight games over the Mets. The Phillies are on the road today, taking on the Brewers, and they trail the series 1-0. So far, they have gone 27-18 against other teams in the NL East.
At home, the Phillies have been very good this season, going 52-26. On the road, they are just above .500 at 38-34. As the favorite, the Phillies are 77-45 this year, and they are 13-15 when listed as the underdog. Philadelphia’s overall series record is 27-16-7, and they have won two straight series.
Milwaukee is 87-63 overall this season, which has them leading the NL Central by 10 games over the Cubs. The Brewers will take on the Phillies at home today, and they lead the series 1-0. So far, they have gone 30-19 in divisional play.
At home, the Brewers are 43-29 this season, and they have gone 44-34 on the road. Milwaukee has been good as the favorite this year, putting up a mark of 50-36. As for their record as the underdog, they are 37-27 this year. The Brewers have an overall series record of 27-17-4 and have won two straight series overall and four straight on the road.
Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction: Over/Under
The Philadelphia Phillies are on the road today against the Milwaukee Brewers. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is below their season average combined run average of 8.9. The Phillies have hit the over in 70 of their 142 games this season, and the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs in 27 of those games. Their record in games with an over/under line of 7.5 runs is 13-14.
Heading into today’s game, the Phillies are 5th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are 8th in home runs and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. Philadelphia has been a tough team to strike out this season and are near the top of the league in both on-base percentage and slugging.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Schwarber’s 35 homers leading the team and Harper’s 28 long balls being the 2nd most on the team. Harper is also 3rd on the team with 82 RBIs, while Schwarber’s 96 RBIs is the best mark on the team and 11th in the league. Harper has gone 5/18 with two homers over his last five games, while Brandon Marsh has also gone deep twice in his last four games while hitting .333.
The Milwaukee Brewers are playing at home against the Philadelphia Phillies today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. The Brewers have played 109 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and their over/under record for the season is 77-63.
William Contreras and Willy Adames have been the Brewers’ top power threats this season, as Adames’ 32 homers is 9th in the league, and Contreras has 22 long balls. Adames also comes into the game with the league’s 2nd most RBIs at 109. However, Adames has struggled of late, hitting just .211 over his last 10 games. Rhys Hoskins has also struggled this season, batting just .208, but he does have 24 homers.
As a team, the Brewers are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they have the league’s 7th best batting average and are 2nd in team walks.
Phillies vs. Brewers Prediction: Spread
When the Phillies are on the road, they are 37-35 against the run line this season, with an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game. They are 15-13 against the run line as an underdog and 22-22 against the run line in their last 44 road games. Their average run margin in all games is +0.8 runs per game.
Zack Wheeler gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Brewers on the road. He has made 29 starts this year and has a record of 15-6 with an ERA of 2.60. Wheeler’s WHIP for the season is .97, and he has turned in 23 quality starts. Wheeler has been pitching well lately, as he has won each of his last three starts. In his most recent outing, he went six innings, giving up two earned runs, and picking up the win. Wheeler finished that outing with nine strikeouts. Per nine innings, he is averaging 9.97 strikeouts. For the year, Wheeler has allowed 18 homers.
When the Brewers win, they do so by an average of 3.6 runs per game, which is why they are 44-20 vs. the run line as underdogs. They are 34-52 vs. the run line as favorites. Their average run margin for the season is +0.9 runs per game, but it’s slightly higher at home (+0.7) than on the road (+1.1). Their overall run line record is 78-72, but they are 35-37 at home and 43-35 on the road. They have covered the run line in four straight games as underdogs.
Frankie Montas will be looking to build off his last outing, where he didn’t give up an earned run and picked up the win. In that outing vs. the Giants, he went 6 innings and gave up just two hits. Looking back over his last four outings, Montas has finished with a no-decision, win, loss, and win. Montas has a record of 7-10 this season and an ERA of 4.49. Out of his 27 starts, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 8.33 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Montas has allowed 18 homers and is averaging 3.84 walks per nine innings.
Phillies vs. Brewers Pick: Brewers ML +120
Our prediction for this one is that the Brewers will pick up a 5-4 win at home, and with them coming in at +120 on the money line, that is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Zack Wheeler is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for fifth among starters. As for Frankie Montas, he is projected to finish with seven strikeouts as well, which is third best among starters.
