Padres vs Dodgers Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 26th
At 10:10 PM ET, the Padres and Dodgers face off in an NL West matchup. This one is being played at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, and the Dodgers are the slight money line favorite at -125. The money line odds for a Padres win are sitting at +106, and the over/under line is at 8.5 runs.
Joe Musgrove is starting for the Padres, and he is facing off against Walker Buehler. The Dodgers are 94-64, while the Padres are 91-67 overall. This game is the first of a four-game series, and the Dodgers are currently in first place in the NL West.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Padres 1.5 (-196) | Dodgers -1.5 (+165)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Padres +106 | Dodgers -125
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Moneyline
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Dodgers vs Padres series. Los Angeles went into the matchup as slight favorites at -139 and squeaked out a 4-3 win. San Diego had a chance to tie or take the lead in the 9th inning but could only muster one run.
Both teams scored one run in the first inning, and the Padres didn’t score another run until putting up two in the 4th. As for the Dodgers, they scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 6th, and both offenses went silent after that.
Jack Flaherty got the start for the Dodgers, going five innings while giving up three runs and striking out five. He did not factor in the decision, as Alex Vesia got the win out of the bullpen. Dylan Cease had a rough outing for the Padres, taking the loss after going five innings and giving up three earned runs.
With an overall record of 91-67, the Padres are 2nd in the NL West this season. Currently, they trail the Dodgers by three games for the division lead. The Padres are 25-23 against other teams in the NL West this season.
At home, the Padres have gone 45-36 this season, and they are 46-31 on the road. San Diego has won three straight series and has an overall series record of 29-15-6 this season. They are also 8-2 across their last ten games overall.
Los Angeles is currently 94-64 overall and leads the NL West by three games over the Padres. The Dodgers took the series opener, but the Padres were able to even up the series in the second game. So far, the Dodgers have gone 27-21 in divisional games.
As the favorite, the Dodgers have gone 89-52 this year, and they are 50-29 as the favorite at home. Los Angeles has been good on the road, putting together a record of 43-35. Heading into today’s game, the Dodgers have won two straight series and have an overall series record of 30-16-4.
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Over/Under
The San Diego Padres are on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers today, and the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. The combined run average for Padres games this season is 8.8 runs, and their over/under record is 80-74. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Padres have a record of 19-16. So far this season, 25 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs.
San Diego has the league’s best team batting average, and they have also been one of the best home run-hitting teams in the league this season. Overall, they are averaging 4.7 runs per game, and they have been even better on the road, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. The Padres come into the game as the league’s top team in terms of fewest strikeouts per game.
Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar have been the Padres’ top power threats this season, as Machado’s 29 homers are 13th in the league, and Profar has also gone deep 24 times. Machado’s 104 RBIs are 7th in the league and the best mark on the team. Over his last seven games, Machado has gone 6/26 with three homers. Fernando Tatis Jr. has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/30 with three homers in his last seven games.
Los Angeles has played in 49 games with an over/under line higher than 8.5 runs, going 35-26 in those contests. The Dodgers’ games have averaged 9.4 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 87-67 overall. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Shohei Ohtani has been on a tear for the Dodgers of late, going 21/42 in his last 10 games with six homers and 21 RBIs. For the season, he is batting .303 with a league-leading 125 RBIs and is 2nd in the MLB with 53 homers. Teoscar Hernández has also been swinging a hot bat for the Dodgers, as he is currently on an eight-game hitting streak and has 31 homers this season.
As a team, the Dodgers are averaging 5.1 runs per game and have been even better on the road, averaging 5.3 runs per contest. They are the MLB’s top home run hitting team and have the league’s best isolated power figure. Overall, they have the league’s best slugging percentage and are 2nd in on-base percentage.
Padres vs. Dodgers Prediction: Spread
The Padres are 49-28 against the run line on the road this season, and they have covered in their last two games. They have an average run margin of 1.2 runs per game on the road, and their overall run line record is 82-76.
Joe Musgrove gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Dodgers on the road. He has made 18 starts this season and has a record of 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA. Musgrove’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.19. In his last outing, Musgrove finished with a no-decision, going six innings and not giving up a run to the White Sox. Before that, he had given up at least two homers in three straight starts. Musgrove has made nine quality starts this season and is averaging 9.16 strikeouts per nine innings.
When betting on the Dodgers’ run line this season, it’s been a bit of a coin flip. They’ve gone 78-80 overall, with a 39-41 mark at home. Their average run margin is +0.8, and they’ve been favored in 141 of their 158 games, going 71-70 in those contests. They’ve also been a solid bet on the road, going 39-39 on the run line with a +0.9 run margin.
Walker Buehler is looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Rockies, as he gave up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up five hits, issued one walk, and served up one homer. Buehler took the loss in that game. Before that outing, he had made three straight starts and gave up five earned runs in each of those outings. Buehler’s record for the season is 1-6, and his ERA is 5.63. Opponents are batting .279 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, Buehler is averaging 3.45 walks compared to 8.06 strikeouts.
Padres vs. Dodgers Pick: Dodgers ML -125
Our predicted final score for this one is 5-4 in favor of the Dodgers, and with them on the money line at -125, this is the way we recommend playing this one. We do see this as a close matchup, and with the Dodgers at home, we like them to pick up the win.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Walker Buehler finishing with five strikeouts compared to Joe Musgrove at six. However, we have Buehler finishing with a lower ERA than Musgrove and finishing with a better chance to pick up the win.
