Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 29th
At 3:10 PM ET, the Padres and Diamondbacks will face off in an NL West matchup. This one is taking place at Chase Field in Phoenix, and the Padres are 93-68 compared to the Diamondbacks at 88-73. Brandon Pfaadt will start for the Diamondbacks, while the Padres are starting Martín Pérez.
Arizona is at -182 on the money line compared to the Padres at +153. Sunday’s forecast in Phoenix calls for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. The over/under line is currently at 9 runs, and the Diamondbacks will be looking to end a two-game losing streak.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Padres 1.5 (-136) | Diamondbacks -1.5 (+112)
- Total: 9
- MoneyLine: Padres +153 | Diamondbacks -182
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Moneyline
San Diego cruised to a 5-0 win over the Diamondbacks in the most recent game of this series. The Padres had a huge 9th inning, scoring all five of their runs. As for the Diamondbacks, they only had two hits in the game and didn’t score a run until the 9th.
Randy Vásquez was excellent for the Padres in this one, going six innings and striking out four without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Wandy Peralta closed things out. Eduardo Rodriguez had a rough outing for the Diamondbacks, taking the loss.
Donovan Solano and Kyle Higashioka each homered for the Padres, while Brandon Lockridge scored three times and drove in a run while going 1/4. Xander Bogaerts also had a two-hit game at the plate.
San Diego is 93-68 overall this season, and they trail the Dodgers by four games in the NL West. The Padres have won two straight games, and they are winning the series vs. the Diamondbacks 2-0. In the NL West, they have gone 27-24 in divisional games.
As the road team today, the Padres are 48-32 this season, which goes along with a 45-36 mark at home. San Diego has been good as the underdog on the road, putting together a record of 26-17. They have also been tough to beat as the favorite, going 60-43 this year. San Diego’s overall series record is 30-16-6, and they are 7-3 over their last 10 games overall.
Arizona is 88-73 overall this year, and they are nine games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. So far, they have gone 27-24 against other teams in the NL West. The Diamondbacks have dropped two straight games, and this season, they are 52-34 as the favorite and 36-39 as the underdog.
At home, the Diamondbacks are 43-37 this year and 45-36 on the road. Arizona has an overall series record of 27-19-4 this year, and they have dropped two straight at home in series-deciding games. So far, they are 2-0 in series-deciding games on the road.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Over/Under
San Diego Padres games have gone over the total 81 times and under 76 times this season. The average over/under line in their games this year is 8 runs, and the average combined run total in their games is 8.8 runs. The over/under line for today’s game against the Arizona Diamondbacks is set at 9 runs. In games where the line has been set at 9 runs, the over has gone 6-6. Only 9.3% of their games this season have had higher over/under lines than 9 runs, and their games have gone over the total in two straight contests.
So far this season, the Padres have been the best hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .264. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the league’s top on-base percentage. Overall, they are 8th in the league in scoring, averaging 4.7 runs per game.
Manny Machado has been a key run producer for the Padres this season, as his 105 RBIs are 7th best in the league. He also leads the team with 29 home runs. Jurickson Profar and Jackson Merrill are also near the top of the Padres’ home run leaderboard, with 24 homers apiece. Profar comes into the game with a team-best on-base percentage of .380.
The Diamondbacks are back home today to face the Padres, and oddsmakers have set the over/under line at 9 runs. Arizona’s games have averaged 10.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 91-62. When the line has been set at 9 runs, their over/under record is 19-13-4. Only 14.9% of their games have had a higher over/under line than 9 runs this season, and they have gone under in their last two games.
Arizona comes into the game as the league’s top-scoring offense, averaging 5.4 runs per game. They have been even better at home, where they are averaging 5.6 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s top team in terms of on-base percentage (.336) and are 2nd in team batting average (.262). The Diamondbacks have also been one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 5th in home runs and have a collective slugging percentage of .438 (2nd).
Over the last five games, Corbin Carroll has gone 6/19 (.316) with a home run and two RBIs. He is also on a five-game hitting streak. However, Pavin Smith has struggled of late, going just 1/9 in his last four games. Ketel Marte and Eugenio Suarez have been the team’s top power hitters this season, with Marte leading the team with 35 homers and Suarez at 29.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Prediction: Spread
When the Padres are on the road, they have been a solid bet against the run line, going 51-29. They are currently on a two-game run line win streak on the road and have covered the run line in five straight games as the underdog. They have an average run margin of 1.2 on the road this season.
Martín Pérez gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Diamondbacks on the road. So far this season, he has made 25 starts and has a record of 5-5 with an ERA of 4.25. Looking at his overall numbers, opponents are batting .272 off Pérez this season. In his 25 starts, Pérez has turned in eight quality starts and is averaging 7.13 strikeouts per nine innings. The left-hander most recently faced the White Sox, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
Arizona has been a solid run line bet on the road this season, going 48-33. They have a run line record of 35-45 at home, and their average run margin is +0.6 runs per game. They have gone 47-28 against the run line as an underdog this season.
Arizona is sending right-hander Brandon Pfaadt to the mound today vs. the Padres. He has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 10-10 with a 4.80 ERA. Pfaadt’s WHIP for the season is 1.25, and he has turned in 13 quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Pfaadt took the loss vs. the Giants, going just 2 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs, six hits, two walks, and two home runs. Before that outing, he had won two straight starts. One of those wins was vs. the Brewers, where he went seven innings and gave up just one earned run.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pick: Over 9 Runs -103
Our prediction for this Padres vs. Diamondbacks matchup is to take the Diamondbacks to win at home. However, with the money line payout for a Diamondbacks win being -182, we actually recommend taking the over on the 9 run line. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Diamondbacks.
Looking at today’s starting pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is the third-best among today’s starters. As for Martin Perez, he is predicted to finish with five K’s, which is tied for the fourth-worst.
