Orioles vs Twins Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 27th
From Target Field in Minneapolis, we have the Orioles and Twins facing off in an AL matchup. Friday’s first pitch is set for 8:10 PM ET, and the forecast calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. Cade Povich is starting for the Orioles, and he is facing off against Pablo Lopez. The Twins are favored on the, with money line odds of -173, while the Orioles are +144 underdogs.
Baltimore is 2nd in the AL East with a record of 88-71, while the Twins are 4th in the AL Central at 82-77. On the run line, the Orioles are 1.5 (-145), and the over/under line is sitting at 8.5 runs. BSN is carrying Friday’s TV coverage for this matchup.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Orioles 1.5 (-145) | Twins -1.5 (+118)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Orioles +144 | Twins -173
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Orioles vs. Twins Prediction: Moneyline
Baltimore closed out their series vs. the Yankees with a 10-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Orioles were at +141 on the money line. Things started off well for the Orioles, as they got on the board with a run in the 2nd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Yankees scored one run in the bottom of the 2nd.
Corbin Burnes took the loss for the Orioles, going five innings and giving up six earned runs on only two hits. He also issued seven walks and hit a batter. The Orioles’ offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning and finished with a total of seven hits.
The Orioles are 88-71 overall, putting them five games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Baltimore is heading into today’s game vs. the Twins five games behind the Yankees for the division lead. They have gone 32-20 in AL East matchups this year.
At home, the Orioles are 44-37 this year, and they are 44-34 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles are 70-52 this year, and they are 18-19 as the underdog. Baltimore has an overall series record of 26-18-7, and they have dropped three straight series at home.
Heading into their last game vs. the Marlins, the Twins closed out the series with an 8-6 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the 10th inning before the Marlins scored three runs in the top of the 11th. Minnesota was the -254 favorite at home going into the game.
David Festa got the start for the Twins and took the loss. He only lasted 4 1/3 innings, giving up three earned runs on seven hits. The Twins’s offense was carried by Carlos Correa, who went 3/5 with a homer and two RBIs.
With an overall record of 82-77, the Twins are 10 games behind the Guardians for the AL Central lead. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games. Minnesota is coming into today’s game with a record of 3-7 over their last 10 and dropped two of three in their series vs. the Marlins.
Minnesota has really struggled as the underdog this year, going just 17-30 in those games. As the favorite, the Twins are 65-47 and 36-28 as the favorite at home. The Twins have an overall series record of 26-21-4 this year but have dropped four straight series.
Orioles vs. Twins Prediction: Over/Under
When the Baltimore Orioles hit the road to face the Minnesota Twins, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly below their season average of 9.2 runs per game. The over/under record for the Orioles this season is 85-63, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, they are 26-22. Overall, the over has hit in 47 of their games this season, which is 29.6% of their games.
Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are 2nd in the league in home runs and are 5th in runs per game at 4.8. Overall, they are batting .248 as a team, which is the 9th best mark in the league. Baltimore’s offense has been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per game.
Anthony Santander has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 44 home runs are the 3rd most in the MLB. However, he has struggled at the plate of late, going just 5/33 in his last nine games. Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat, going 12/38 in his last nine games, but he has yet to go deep during this stretch.
Minnesota’s over/under record is 81-72, and the combined run average in their games is 9.1. The over/under line for today’s game is 8.5, and their average over/under line for the season is 8. They have played 26 games with an over/under line of 8.5, and their record in those games is 26-22. Their over streak is currently at 2 games.
Carlos Santana has been one of the Twins’ top power threats this season, as his 22 homers are the best on the team. He is also the team’s leader in RBIs, coming into the game with 68. However, he is batting just .234 for the season. Willi Castro is hitting just one point higher than Santana at .248, and his 60 RBIs are the 3rd most in the Twins’ lineup.
Over his last eight games, Carlos Correa has gone 11/32 for the Twins, including one home run and seven RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Byron Buxton has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/33 in his last seven games. This stretch includes a home run and three RBIs.
Orioles vs. Twins Prediction: Spread
The Orioles have been a solid run line bet this season, going 84-75 overall. They have been especially profitable on the road, where they are 46-32 against the run line. Baltimore has an average run margin of +0.4 runs per game this season.
Baltimore is sending left-hander Cade Povich to the mound today as he faces the Twins on the road. Povich has made 15 starts this year and has a record of 2-9 with an ERA of 5.59. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on seven hits. Looking back over his last three starts, Povich has allowed exactly two earned runs in each outing. Opponents are batting .263 off Povich this year, and his ERA on the road is 18.14 compared to 3.90 at home.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 73-86 overall, including 33-45 at home. The Twins have a run differential of +0.1 runs per game overall, but that number jumps to +0.4 runs per game at home. They have been a better run line bet on the road, going 40-41, compared to 33-45 at home.
Pablo López will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Red Sox, as he gave up seven earned runs in four innings of work. In that outing, he gave up three homers. Before that start, he had pitched well, going 7 innings and giving up just one earned run vs. the Angels. López has a record of 15-9 and an ERA of 4.11. For the season, he has made 31 starts, and opponents are batting .248 vs. López this season. The right-hander has a BB/9 figure of 1.9 compared to 9.52 strikeouts per nine innings.
Orioles vs. Twins Pick: Over 8.5 Runs -114
Our predicted final score for this game is 5-4 in favor of the Twins, which would give us a good payout if you are looking to take them on the money line at -173. However, we actually like the over in this one, with the line sitting at 8.5 runs.
Looking at some of the projections for the starters, Pablo Lopez is actually predicted to go deeper into the game than Cade Povich, and we have Lopez finishing with six strikeouts compared to Povich’s six.
Offensively, we have the Twins finishing with 8 hits compared to the Orioles with 8. If you’re looking for some player props, you could look to the Twins to finish with the sixth-fewest strikeouts as a team today.
