Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 9th
First pitch for Monday’s Orioles vs. Red Sox matchup is set for 7:10 PM ET from Fenway Park in Boston, MA. The Red Sox are 3rd in the AL East and are favored on the money line (-120), while the Orioles are +101 and looking to snap a two-game losing streak.
The over/under line is currently at 9.5 runs, and tonight’s pitching matchup features Cade Povich for the Orioles and Brayan Bello for the Red Sox. Baltimore is 82-62 this season, while the Red Sox are 72-71.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+151) | Red Sox 1.5 (-189)
- Total: 9.5
- MoneyLine: Orioles +101 | Red Sox -120
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Moneyline
The Orioles will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Rays with a 2-0 loss. Baltimore was the heavy favorite at -218 going into the game but couldn’t get anything going offensively, as they only had five hits and didn’t score a run. The Orioles also wasted a good start from Corbin Burnes, who took the loss, going six innings and giving up just two runs on seven hits. He only had three strikeouts in the outing and issued the loss.
Gunnar Henderson was hot at the plate, going 3/4, but the Orioles didn’t have any other big performances. Cedric Mullins was the only other player with more than one hit, going 2/4. The Orioles also wasted a good game from their bullpen, as the Rays scored their only two runs in the 6th.
With an overall record of 82-62, the Orioles are just a half-game behind the Yankees for the AL East lead. Baltimore has dropped two straight games, losing the final two games of their series vs. the Rays. This year, the Orioles have gone 29-17 in AL East play and are 2nd in the division.
At home, the Orioles are 42-33 this season, and they have gone 40-29 on the road. As the favorite, the Orioles are 67-47 this season, and they are an even 15-15 as the underdog. Baltimore’s overall series record is 24-14-7 this season, and they have an even 5-5 record over their last 10 games.
The Red Sox will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the White Sox with a 7-2 loss. This was especially tough, as it was the White Sox’s bullpen that took the loss, and the Red Sox were the -282 favorite at home going into the game.
Richard Fitts got the start for the Red Sox, going 5 2/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Red Sox’s offense scored only two runs on eight hits and didn’t have a hit after the 2nd inning.
Boston is at home today, hosting the Orioles, and they are 10 games behind the Yankees in the AL East. Overall, the Red Sox are 72-71 and are 18-18 in AL East matchups. The Red Sox closed out their series with the White Sox with a win and took the series 2-1.
At home, the Red Sox are 33-39 this year and 39-32 on the road. So far, they have been the underdog at home 21 times, going 9-12 in those games. As the underdog overall, the Red Sox are 33-39, and they are 39-32 as the favorite. Boston’s overall series record is 22-17-6.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line of 9.5 runs is a bit higher than the Orioles’ season average of 9.2 runs per game, but Baltimore has played to the over in 77 of their 133 games this season. When the over/under line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit in six of the eight games. Overall, only 2.1% of Baltimore’s games have had an over/under line set at 9.5 runs or higher.
Heading into today’s game, the Orioles are 4th in the league in scoring at 4.9 runs per game. They have been especially good on the road, averaging 5.2 runs per contest. Overall, they are the league’s 2nd best home run hitting team and are also the league’s top team in isolated power. As a team, they are batting .250, which is 9th in the league.
Anthony Santander has been the team’s top power threat this season, as his 39 home runs are 3rd in the league. He has also driven in 91 runs, which is 11th best in the MLB. Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers and six runs scored.
The Boston Red Sox are playing at home against the Baltimore Orioles today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 9.5 runs. The combined run average for Red Sox games this season is also 9.5 runs, and their over/under record is 73-63. When the over/under line is set at 9.5 runs, their record is 12-14. Overall, 70.6% of their games have had lower over/under lines than 9.5 runs.
Heading into today’s game, the Red Sox are 6th in the league in home runs and have the league’s top batting average on balls in play at .32. Overall, they are 5th in batting average and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. Boston has been even better on the road, averaging 5 runs per contest.
Rafael Devers has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 28 homers are 14th in the league and the most on the Red Sox. He also leads the team with 81 RBIs and is batting .278. Tyler O’Neill has also been a big power threat, with 27 homers this season. O’Neill has gone 6/20 in his last six games, including two homers.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Prediction: Spread
On the road, the Orioles have been a solid bet against the run line, going 42-27. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the favorite, and their run line record as the underdog is 21-9.
Cade Povich gets the start for the Orioles today as he faces the Red Sox on the road. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-7 with an ERA of 5.76. Povich’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.60. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in three quality starts. Povich’s most recent outing was a good one, as he went 7 1/3 innings, picking up the win and not allowing a run. Before that, he had allowed at least two earned runs in four straight outings. The left-hander has an ERA of 24.39 on the road compared to 3.94 at home.
The Red Sox have been a poor run-line bet at home this season, going just 26-46, while they have been a solid run-line bet on the road at 40-31. They have been a run-line underdog in 72 games and have gone 40-32 in those contests. Their average run differential in games they win is +3.8, while it is -4.0 in games they lose.
Brayan Bello will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Mets, as he gets the start for the Red Sox today. Against the Mets, he took the loss and gave up four earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last four outings, Bello has alternated between wins and losses. His record for the season is 12-7, and he has an ERA of 4.75. Bello’s WHIP for the season is 1.38. Out of his 26 starts, he has turned in 10 quality starts and is averaging 8.56 strikeouts per nine innings.
Orioles vs. Red Sox Pick: Orioles ML +101
Our prediction is that the Orioles will pick up a 6-5 road win over the Red Sox. With the Orioles being the underdogs, they are a great value pick at +101.
Looking at some of the starting pitcher projections, Brayan Bello is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is 10th among starters. As for Cade Povich, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which is fourth worst.
