Nationals vs Mets Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 17th
At 7:10 PM ET, the Nationals and Mets face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at Citi Field in New York, and the Nationals are 4th in the NL East with an overall record of 68-82. The Mets are 2nd in the NL East and their money line odds are sitting at -163 compared to the Nationals at +139.
Today’s forecast in New York calls for overcast skies and temperatures in the upper 70s. Tylor Megill is slated to start for the Mets, while the Nationals are going with Mitchell Parker. SNY will be televising this one, and the over/under line is at 7.5 runs.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Nationals 1.5 (-158) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Nationals +139 | Mets -163
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Nationals vs. Mets Prediction: Moneyline
New York picked up a 2-1 win over the Nationals in the most recent game of this series. The Mets had a late rally, scoring one run in the 8th and another in the 10th. As for the Nationals, they scored their only run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Mets were favored at -201 on the money line.
Sean Manaea started for the Mets and picked up the win, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued one walk. Jake Irvin got the start for the Nationals, going just 7 1/3 innings and giving up one earned run.
Jose Iglesias was the difference for the Mets, as he homered twice and scored both of their runs. For the Nationals, Trea Turner went 2/4 with a double.
Washington is 68-82 overall, and they are 22 games behind the Phillies in the NL East. The Nationals are 4th in the division and have gone 23-24 in divisional games this year. The Nationals have dropped two straight games and are looking to even up their series with the Mets today.
At home, the Nationals are 36-39 this year and 32-43 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 53-69 compared to 15-13 as the favorite. So far, their overall series record is 19-22-6, and they are currently losing this series vs. the Mets.
The Mets are 82-68 overall and trail the Phillies by eight games for the NL East lead. New York is 24-19 in divisional games and took the first game of this series vs. the Nationals. So far, they are 25-17-8 in series this year.
At home, the Mets are 41-34 this season and have the same 41-34 record on the road. New York has won two straight games as the favorite, and they are 54-37 when favored this year. As the home favorite, the Mets have gone 34-23 this season.
Nationals vs. Mets Prediction: Over/Under
Washington’s over/under record is 70-74, and the over/under line for today’s game against the Mets is set at 7.5 runs. The Nationals have played 122 games with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season. Their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 16-10, and they are currently on a four-game under streak.
The Nationals offense has been one of the league’s worst this season, as they are averaging just 4.2 runs per game, which is 22nd in the MLB. They have been even worse in the power department, coming in 26th in the league in home runs. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 12th in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. and CJ Abrams come into the game tied for the team lead in RBIs, with 65 apiece. Abrams also leads the team with 20 home runs, while Garcia Jr. is batting .281 for the season. The Nationals will be looking for James Wood to break out of his recent slump, as he is just 4/18 in his last five games.
The New York Mets are playing at home against the Washington Nationals today. The over/under line for the game is set at 7.5 runs. The Mets’ games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 74-71. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 18-16. Overall, 70.0% of their games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have both been swinging the bat well for the Mets this season, with Lindor hitting .271 and Alonso at .242. Alonso does lead the team with 32 home runs, which is 9th in the league. Lindor is 2nd on the team with 86 RBIs, and Alonso is right behind him at 81. Lindor comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak, as does Pete Alonso.
As a team, the Mets are 5th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game, which is good for 9th in the league. They have been a slightly better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. Over their last six games, Jose Iglesias is hitting .375, and Francisco Alvarez has gone deep twice, but is hitting just .200 in that stretch.
Nationals vs. Mets Prediction: Spread
Washington has been a profitable run line team this season, going 84-66 overall. They are 40-35 on the run line at home and 44-31 on the road. The Nationals are 13-15 on the run line as the favorite and 71-51 as the underdog. Their average run differential on the season is -0.5 runs per game.
Washington is sending left-hander Mitchell Parker to the mound today vs. the Mets. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 7-9 with an ERA of 4.24. Parker’s WHIP for the season is 1.27, and he has turned in 11 quality starts. In his last outing, Parker went 6 1/3 innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. Before that, he had been tagged for at least two homers in three straight starts. Parker has an ERA of 11.06 on the road compared to 3.49 at home.
When the Mets win, they tend to win big, with an average run margin of +3.6. But when they lose, they lose by an average of -3.4 runs. Overall, they are 75-75 against the run line, and they are 33-42 at home.
New York is sending right-hander Tylor Megill to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-5 with an ERA of 4.48. Megill’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.32. In his 13 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 10.54 strikeouts per nine innings. Megill’s last outing came vs. the Blue Jays, where he went six innings, giving up no earned runs on nine hits. He finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had given up at least one homer in three straight outings.
Nationals vs. Mets Pick: Over 7.5 Runs -121
We see the Mets taking this one by a score of 5-4, which means there isn’t a ton of value on the money line. Instead, we are recommending taking the over at 7.5 runs. If you’re looking for a money line pick, the Mets are the way to go, but at -163, we see the over as the better bet.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Tylor Megill finishing with six strikeouts compared to Mitchell Parker with six. However, Megill is projected to go one inning longer, and we have him finishing with a better ERA than Parker.
