Nationals vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 4th
Wednesday’s matchup between the Nationals and Marlins has a first pitch set for 6:40 PM ET from loanDepot Park in Miami. The Nationals are the betting favorite, with their money line odds sitting at -141 compared to the Marlins at +119. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
MacKenzie Gore will start for the Nationals, and he is facing off against Valente Bellozo for the Marlins. Washington is 4th in the NL East, while the Marlins are 5th with an overall record of 51-87.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Nationals -1.5 (+120) | Marlins 1.5 (-144)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Nationals -141 | Marlins +119
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
Washington cruised to a 6-2 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a big 4th inning, scoring three of their six runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only two runs in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were the slight underdogs at -105.
Patrick Corbin got the win for the Nationals, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Max Meyer struggled on the mound for the Marlins, taking the loss after going 5 2/3 innings and giving up five earned runs.
Keibert Ruiz and Joey Gallo each homered for the Nationals, while Jacob Young scored three times and drove in a run while going 3/3. Connor Norby had a two-hit game for the Marlins.
Washington is 62-76 overall this season, and they are 4th in the NL East, 20 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone 19-20 in divisional matchups. The Nationals picked up their last win and are 4-6 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Nationals are 32-37 this season, and they are just under .500 at 30-39 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 50-65 this season, and they are 12-11 when favored. Washington has won two straight games as the road favorite, and their overall series record is 17-23-3.
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 51-87, putting them 31 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 13-27 in divisional games. At home, the Marlins are 25-45 and 26-42 on the road.
So far, the Marlins have really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14 this year. As for their record as the underdog, they are 47-73 and have won two straight games as the underdog. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-7, and they have dropped four straight series at home.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
The Washington Nationals are on the road today against the Miami Marlins, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. The Nationals have played in 57 games this season with over/under lines higher than 8.5 runs, which represents 41.3% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 66-67.
Washington’s offense has been very consistent this season, as they are averaging 4.2 runs per game both at home and on the road. Their team batting average of .245 is 11th in the league, and they have also been tough to strike out, coming in 5th in the league in fewest strikeouts. However, they are just 24th in the league in home runs and have a collective ISO of .134, which is also 24th in the league.
Luis Garcia Jr. has been the Nationals’ most consistent hitter this season, batting .290 with a team-leading 63 RBIs. He is also 2nd on the team with 15 homers. CJ Abrams has also been a solid power threat, as he is 1st on the team with 18 homers but is batting just .242. Over his last six games, Dylan Crews has two homers and is batting .259.
The Miami Marlins have a combined run average of 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-59. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, the Marlins have a record of 25-21 in those games. Overall, 18.8% of their games have had an over/under line set at 8.5 runs or higher.
One of the few bright spots for the Marlins offense has been the play of Jake Burger, who leads the team with 59 RBIs and is 12th in the league with 25 home runs. His batting average of .247 is also the best mark among Miami’s regulars. Jesús Sánchez is right behind him in the home run department, with 17, and is 2nd on the team with 57 RBIs. Sánchez is also on a three-game hitting streak.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. They have been even worse in terms of drawing walks, as they are the league’s worst team in that category. Miami’s team batting average is just .241, and they are near the bottom of the league in terms of on-base percentage and OPS.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
Washington is 41-28 against the run line on the road this season, and they have covered in two straight games. The Nationals are 67-48 against the run line as an underdog this season, and their average run margin in winning games is 3.4 runs.
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 8-11 with a 4.45 ERA. Gore’s WHIP for the season is 1.55, and opponents are batting .270 off him this year. In his 27 appearances, Gore has turned in seven quality starts. Looking back at his last outing, Gore got the win vs. the Yankees, going six innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts.
The Marlins have a run line record of 64-74 this season, with a -1.4 run differential on average. They are 29-41 against the run line at home and 35-33 on the road. They have covered the run line in two straight games as the underdog, and their run line record as the favorite is just 2-16.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Nationals at home. Bellozo has made eight starts this season and has a record of 2-2 with an ERA of 4.32. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in four innings of work. Looking back over his last four outings, Bellozo has allowed at least two home runs in each start. His WHIP for the season is currently 1.34. Bellozo has a total of nine home runs allowed this year.
Nationals vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +119
We see the Marlins taking this one at home with a final score of 6-5. Given that they are the underdogs, you can get them at +119 on the money line, and that is our recommended bet for this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we actually have Valente Bellozo finishing with six strikeouts, and he is projected to have a better outing than MacKenzie Gore. Bellozo is also going to be a lot cheaper than Gore in terms of DFS, and you can expect him to go around six innings.
