Nationals vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Tuesday, September 3rd
From loanDepot Park in Miami, we have the Nationals and Marlins facing off in an NL East matchup. The Nationals are 61-76 and their losing streak is at three games. The Marlins have an overall record of 51-86 and they are favored on the money line today (-113). Washington is starting Patrick Corbin, while Max Meyer is on the mound for the Marlins.
BSFL will be televising this game, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs. First pitch is at 6:40 PM ET.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Nationals -1.5 (+158) | Marlins 1.5 (-201)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Nationals -105 | Marlins -113
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
Washington closed out their series vs. the Cubs with a 14-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Nationals were the slight favorite at +110 on the money line. Things really got away from the Nationals in the 3rd inning, as the Cubs scored three runs in the inning. Washington’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd.
Mitchell Parker put together a good start for the Nationals, going six innings and giving up just three runs on seven hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and took the loss. Washington’s offense scored their only run in the 2nd inning but finished with just five hits.
Washington is 61-76 overall, putting them 4th in the NL East, 20 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Nationals head into today’s game having lost three straight games, and they dropped their final three games of their series vs. the Cubs. So far, they are 18-20 in divisional games.
At home, the Nationals are 32-37 this season, and they are just under .500 at 29-39 on the road. As the road favorite, the Nationals have gone 4-3 this season, and they are 12-11 overall as the favorite. Washington’s two most recent wins have come as the favorite. Their series record is 17-23-3 this year, and they have gone 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Miami is coming off a big 7-5 win over the Giants to close out their series. This was especially impressive, as they were the +227 underdog on the money line. It was a four-run 5th inning that really turned things in their favor, and the Giants could only score one run after the 5th.
Darren McCaughan put together a good start for the Marlins, going four innings and giving up just three runs on five hits. Miami’s offense was carried by Kyle Stowers, who went 1/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Miami is 51-86 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 30 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have gone just 13-26 in divisional games this year. They will host the Nationals, with Washington 4th in the NL East, 20 games ahead of Miami.
At home, the Marlins are 25-44 this year, and they are just under .500 at 26-42 on the road. The Marlins have won two straight games, and they are 47-73 as the underdog this year, which includes going 21-31 as the underdog at home. Miami’s overall series record is 11-25-7, and they won their most recent series vs. the Giants.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
The Washington Nationals are on the road against the Miami Marlins today. The over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. The Nationals have played in 57 games this season with over/under lines higher than 8.5, and their over/under record for the season is 66-66.
Washington’s offense is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season, which is 21st in the league and is also 21st in home runs. As a team, they are batting .245, which is 11th in the league. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .290 for the season and leads the team with 63 RBIs. CJ Abrams has a team-high 18 homers but is batting just .244.
Andres Chaparro and Dylan Crews have both struggled at the plate of late, with Chaparro going 4/23 in his last seven games and Crews at 6/25. However, Jacob Young has been hot, going 8/22 in his last seven games. Ildemaro Vargas and Lane Thomas both come into the game on three-game hitting streaks.
When the Marlins are at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-58. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 25-20, and 19.0% of their games have had higher over/under lines. Overall, 48.2% of their games have had lower over/under lines.
Over the past five games, Derek Hill has gone 5/18 with three homers and four RBIs. Kyle Stowers has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/21 with two homers in his last six games. Stowers also has eight RBIs during this stretch. Josh Bell is currently on a seven-game hitting streak for the Marlins.
Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are 12th in the league. He is also 1st on the team with 59 RBIs. Overall, the Marlins are 29th in scoring (3.8 runs per game) and have the league’s 23rd home run total.
Nationals vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
The Nationals are 40-28 vs. the run line on the road this season, and their average run margin is -0.5 runs per game. They are 2-0 vs. the run line in their last two games as the favorite, and their run line record as the underdog is 66-48.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Corbin has made 27 starts this year and has a record of 4-12 with a 5.50 ERA. So far, he has turned in eight quality starts and is coming off back-to-back outings in which he didn’t allow an earned run. In his most recent outing, Corbin went six innings for the win, giving up just two hits and two walks. He finished with six strikeouts in that outing. Corbin’s WHIP for the season is 1.51, and opponents are batting .290 off him this year.
When the Marlins are the underdog, they have been a good bet against the run line, going 62-58. Their average run differential in those games is -1.4. They have been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 35-33, but have struggled at home, going 29-40.
Miami is sending right-hander Max Meyer to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 3-4 with a 5.43 ERA. Meyer’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.38, and he has turned in three quality starts. In his last outing, Meyer took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work vs. the Rockies. Before that, he had gone 2-0 in three straight outings. Meyer’s ERA at home is 5.46, compared to 6.33 on the road.
Nationals vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML -113
Our prediction for today’s Nationals vs. Marlins game is to take the Marlins on the money line at -113. We have the Marlins winning this one by a final score of 6-5. At -113, the Marlins have an implied win probability of 53.1%, and we see this as a good value.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Max Meyer finishing with around six strikeouts, which is good for sixth among all starters today. As for Patrick Corbin, we have him finishing with just five K’s, which is the third fewest among starters.
