Nationals vs Cubs Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 22nd
From Wrigley Field in Chicago, we have the Nationals and Cubs facing off in an NL matchup. Sunday’s forecast in Chicago calls for moderate rain and temperatures in the upper 60s. The over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs, and the Cubs are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -197. The Nationals are +167 underdogs.
First pitch for Sunday’s matchup is set for 2:20 PM ET. MARQ will be televising this one, and the money line odds have the Nationals at +167 compared to the Cubs at -197. Jake Irvin is starting for the Nationals, and he is facing off against Shota Imanaga for the Cubs. Washington is 4th in the NL East, while the Cubs are 2nd in the NL Central.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Nationals 1.5 (-133) | Cubs -1.5 (+109)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Nationals +167 | Cubs -197
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction: Moneyline
Washington cruised to a 5-1 win over the Cubs in the most recent game of this series. The Nationals had a huge 6th inning, scoring four of their five runs. As for the Cubs, they scored their only run in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Nationals were at +117 on the money line.
MacKenzie Gore pitched well for the Nationals in this one, going seven innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with nine strikeouts but issued three walks. Kyle Hendricks had a rough outing for the Cubs, giving up four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings of work.
Joey Gallo and Juan Yepez each homered for the Nationals, while Jose Tena went 3/4 with an RBI. Ildemaro Vargas and Luis Garcia Jr. each had two hits and an RBI.
Washington is 69-86 overall this season, and they are 23.0 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. So far, they have gone 23-26 in divisional games. The Nationals are on the road today, and they are 1-2 in the series vs. the Cubs.
At home, the Nationals are 36-39 this season, and they are 33-47 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 54-73 this year, compared to a mark of 15-13 as the favorite. Their overall series record is 19-24-6, and they are just 4-6 over their last 10 games.
Chicago is 79-76 overall and trails the Brewers by nine games in the NL Central. The Cubs are 21-28 against other teams in the division. At home, the Cubs are 41-36 this year and 38-40 on the road.
So far, the Cubs have been the favorite in most of their games, where they are 42-38. As the underdog, the Cubs are 37-38 this season. Looking at their overall series record, the Cubs are 21-25-3 and have dropped two straight series.
Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction: Over/Under
The Washington Nationals have played in 80.6% of their games this season with an over/under line higher than today’s 7.5-run total. Their combined run average is 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 73-76. Their games have averaged a total of 9 runs per game, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 17-10. The under has hit in their last two games.
Washington’s offense has struggled this season, averaging just 4.1 runs per game, which is 24th in the league. They have been even worse in terms of power, as their 130 home runs are 26th in the MLB. However, they do come into the game with a few players on a nice streak at the plate. Joey Gallo, Lane Thomas, and Darren Baker all have three-game hitting streaks. Gallo has two homers in his last four games and is 4/13 in that stretch.
CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. have been the Nationals’ top power threats this season, as Abrams leads the team with 20 homers, and Garcia Jr. is 2nd with 16. Abrams has also been hot of late, going 7/14 in his last four games. For the season, he is batting .246, and Garcia Jr. is at .281.
Today’s over/under line for the Chicago Cubs’ home game against the Washington Nationals is set at 7.5 runs. The Cubs have played 109 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, and their games have averaged 8.7 runs per game. Their over/under record for the season is 73-77, and their over/under record when the line is set at 7.5 runs is 18-16. The over has hit in two straight games for the Cubs.
Over his last six games, Ian Happ has two homers and has gone 7/26 (.269). Happ is the Cubs’ leader in RBIs this season, with 85, and also leads the team with 25 homers. Seiya Suzuki is 2nd on the team in homers and is batting .279 for the season.
Chicago’s offense is averaging 4.6 runs per game and has been even better on the road, at 5.1 runs per contest. As a team, they are 17th in home runs and are batting a combined .243. The Cubs are also one of the league’s best teams at drawing walks.
Nationals vs. Cubs Prediction: Spread
Washington has been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 86-69. They have been especially good on the road, going 46-34 against the run line. They have been an underdog in most of those games, going 73-54. Their average run margin for the season is -0.6 runs per game.
Jake Irvin will be looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 7 1/3 innings of work. In that outing vs. the Mets, he finished with a no-decision. Looking back further, Irvin had a rough outing vs. the Pirates on September 5th, where he gave up six earned runs in five innings of work. He has made 31 starts this year and has a record of 10-12, along with an ERA of 4.07. Opponents are batting .237 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, Irvin is averaging 7.53 strikeouts and just 2.26 walks.
When betting the Cubs on the run line this season, it’s been more profitable to take them on the road, where they have covered at a 59% clip compared to just 38% at home. They are also a much better bet as the underdog, covering at a 65% rate compared to just 33% as the favorite. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.8, while it drops to -3.1 in losses.
Shota Imanaga gets the start for the Cubs today and is coming off a strong outing vs. the Athletics. In that September 16th start, he went six innings, picking up the win, and gave up just two earned runs. Looking back further, Imanaga has picked up the win in three straight starts and has allowed three earned runs in each of his last two outings. The left-hander’s record for the season is 14-3, and he has an ERA of 3.03 to go along with a WHIP of 1.03. Opposing batters are hitting .221 off Imanaga this season.
Nationals vs. Cubs Pick: Over 7.5 Runs -112
Our prediction for this one is that the Cubs will pick up a 5-4 win over the Nationals, which would make the Nationals money line a good value bet at +167. However, we actually like the over in this matchup, with the line sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Shota Imanaga finishing with six strikeouts compared to Jake Irvin with five. Imanaga is also predicted to go longer in this one, with our projections having him going seven innings.
Offensively, we have the Cubs finishing with eight hits compared to the Nationals with seven. However, the Nationals are actually projected to finish with fewer runs than the Cubs, and they are also projected to hit fewer home runs.
