Mets vs Braves Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 25th
There does appear to be a chance of rain for Wednesday’s Braves vs. Mets matchup, with the forecasted temperature being 77 degrees in Atlanta. The game is being played at Truist Park in Atlanta, and the Braves are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -188, while the Mets are +158.
David Peterson is starting for the Mets, while the Braves are sending Chris Sale to the mound. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and this NL East matchup can be seen on SNY.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Mets 1.5 (-141) | Braves -1.5 (+117)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Mets +158 | Braves -188
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Moneyline
The most recent game o of this Mets and Braves series came right after the All-Star break. New York had a late rally in the 7th inning, scoring their only run, but the Braves held on for a 5-1 win. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -145 on the money line.
Atlanta got to Mets starter Luis Severino, scoring four runs off him in just four innings of work. On the other side, Spencer Schwellenbach put together a good outing for the Braves, giving up just one run in seven innings of work.
Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna each homered for the Braves, while Mark Vientos went deep for the Mets. Harris, Ozuna, and Vientos each had two RBIs.
With an overall record of 87-70, the Mets trail the Phillies by 5.5 games in the NL East. Currently, they lead the NL Wild Card race by one game over the Padres. The Mets are on a three-game losing streak on the road, and they are 41-35 on the road this season.
At home, the Mets have gone 46-35 this season. As the favorite, the Mets are 58-37 this year, and they are 29-33 as the underdog. New York’s overall series record is 27-17-8, and they have won two straight series.
With an overall record of 86-71, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East, trailing the Phillies by 6.5 games. Currently, they trail the Mets by just one game for the 2nd spot in the division. The Braves have won three straight games, and they are favored today as they are at home.
At home, the Braves are 43-33 this season and 43-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 73-53 this season and 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 28-16-7, and they have won two straight series.
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Over/Under
The New York Mets are on the road today against the Atlanta Braves, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. The Mets have had a combined run average of 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 79-73. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, the Mets have gone over 21 times and under 17 times. Overall, 67.5% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs, and they are currently on a two-game under streak.
One of the Mets’ top priorities this offseason was to add more power to their lineup, and it’s safe to say they have done that, as they are 6th in home runs and have two of the league’s top home run hitters in Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Alonso has 34 homers this season, which is 9th in the league, while Lindor is 11th with 31. Alonso’s 88 RBIs are the best on the team, while Lindor is 3rd at 86. Lindor comes into the game with a four-game hitting streak.
Over the Mets’ last nine games, Jose Iglesias has gone 16/38, and he is also on a 17-game hitting streak. During this stretch, he has scored seven runs and has three homers. Luisangel Acuña and Brandon Nimmo have also been swinging the bat well of late, with Acuña hitting .357 with three homers in his last nine games and Nimmo has three homers over his last eight games.
Today’s over/under line of 7.5 runs is lower than the average over/under line for Atlanta Braves games this season, which has been set at 8 runs per game. The Braves have a 58-93 over/under record this season, and their games have averaged a combined 8.2 runs per game. When the over/under line has been set at 7.5 runs, the over has gone 13-20 in those games. In total, 73.2% of Braves games this season have had over/under lines set higher than 7.5 runs.
Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson have been two of the top power hitters in the league this season, as Ozuna’s 39 home runs are 5th in the MLB, and Olson’s 29 homers are 13th. Ozuna also comes into the game with a team-high 102 RBIs and a batting average of .310. Olson has also been swinging a good bat of late, hitting .422 over his last ten games, with five homers and 10 RBIs.
Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.4 runs per game, and they have been a better offensive team on the road this season. As a team, they are batting .244, which is 11th in the league, and are 4th in the league in home runs. Currently, they have seven players who are on a hitting streak, with Michael Harris II leading the way with a streak of eight games.
Mets vs. Braves Prediction: Spread
When the Mets are the favorite, they are just 44-51 against the run line. They are 36-26 against the run line as the underdog. The Mets have a run line record of 42-34 on the road this season. Their average run margin in all games is +0.5 runs per game. Their average run margin in wins is +3.7 runs per game, while their average run margin in losses is -3.5 runs per game.
David Peterson gets the start for the Mets today as he faces the Braves on the road. He has made 20 starts this season and has a record of 9-3 with a 3.08 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Peterson has a WHIP of 1.33 and has issued 3.39 walks per nine innings compared to 7.34 strikeouts. The left-hander has turned in 11 quality starts this year. In his last outing, Peterson took the loss, going 3 2/3 innings and giving up four earned runs on eight hits. Before that, he had gone 7 2/3 innings without giving up an earned run. So, he has been a bit up and down recently.
Atlanta is 75-82 against the run line this season, but they have been a better bet on the road, going 43-38. The Braves have been favored in 126 games this season, and they are 57-69 against the run line in those contests. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.8, while it is -3.3 in losses.
Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today vs. the Mets and comes into the game with a record of 18-3. He has made 29 starts this season and has a league-leading 1.98 ERA. Out of his 29 appearances, Sale has turned in 18 quality starts and has a WHIP of 1.01. In his last outing, Sale went 5 innings, giving up 2 earned runs, and got the win. Before that, he had won three straight starts. Sale’s last loss came on August 23rd. At home, he is 10-0 with a 2.75 ERA.
Mets vs. Braves Pick: Mets ML +158
With the Mets coming in at +158 on the money line, we see them as a great value pick to pick up a win over the Braves. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Mets, giving you the option to also take the over if you prefer, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Chris Sale finishing with the most strikeouts among all starters today, and he is also the best option to pick up a win. However, we have Sale’s strikeout total at seven, and with David Peterson’s projected strikeout total at six, there’s not a huge difference between the two.
Offensively, the Mets are projected to finish with nine strikeouts, while the Braves are predicted to finish with eight. As for home runs, the Mets are projected to finish with 1.1, which has the Braves at 1.6.
