Mets vs Blue Jays Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 11th
Sean Manaea will start for the Mets, as they are 79-66 and 2nd in the NL East. The Blue Jays are 5th in the AL East with a record of 69-77 and will start Bowden Francis. New York is currently favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 8 runs.
MLB Network will be televising this interleague matchup, and the first pitch from the Rogers Centre in Toronto is set for 3:07 PM ET. On the money line, the Mets are -124 compared to the Blue Jays at +105.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Mets -1.5 (+135) | Blue Jays 1.5 (-164)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: Mets -124 | Blue Jays +105
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Moneyline
Toronto picked up a 6-2 win over the Mets in the most recent game of this series. The Blue Jays had a huge 3rd inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Mets, they scored their only two runs in the 7th. Heading into the game, the Blue Jays were the slight underdogs at +109.
Chris Bassitt pitched well for the Blue Jays in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with eight strikeouts but issued one walk. On the other side, David Peterson got the start for the Mets and went just 4 1/3 innings while giving up four runs and took the loss.
Toronto’s offense was led by Ernie Clement, Spencer Horwitz, and Joey Loperfido, as they were the only three Blue Jays hitters to have more than one hit. Clement scored three times and stole three bases. Both Horwitz and Loperfido each drove in two.
New York is 79-66 overall and trails the Phillies by eight games for the NL East lead. The Mets are 22-17 against other teams in the NL East. The Mets have been playing well of late, going 8-2 over their last 10 games. This mark includes taking the first two games of their series vs. the Marlins.
At home, the Mets are 40-34 this season, and they are just above .500 at 39-32 on the road. New York has been good as the favorite this year, putting up a mark of 52-37. As the underdog, the Mets are 27-29 this season. The Mets’ overall series record is 25-16-8, and they have won four straight series overall and two straight on the road.
Toronto is 69-77 overall and trails the Rays by 2.5 games for 4th place in the AL East. So far, they are 20-26 in divisional games. The Blue Jays have dropped three straight series and are 3-7 in their last 10 games overall. At home, they are 35-36 this year and 34-41 on the road.
As the favorite, the Blue Jays have gone 41-28 this year and 28-49 as the underdog. Toronto has dropped three straight series and has an overall series record of 16-24-6 this year.
Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Over/Under
The Mets are on the road against the Blue Jays today, with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average in Mets games this season is 9.1, and their over/under record is 71-69. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 14-8-1. Overall, 54.5% of their games have had over/under lines set above 8 runs.
Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso have been two of the Mets’ top power hitters this season, as Alonso is 10th in the league with 31 homers, and Lindor is just behind him with 30 long balls. Lindor is also the Mets’ leader in RBIs, with 84, and comes into the game with a batting average of .269. Alonso’s batting average is just .239 for the season.
As a team, the Mets are 6th in home runs and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. They have been even better on the road, averaging 4.9 runs per contest. New York comes into the game with a team batting average of .247, which is 9th in the league.
The Blue Jays are at home today against the Mets, and the over/under line is set at 8 runs. Toronto’s games have averaged 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 75-67 overall. When the line has been set at 8 runs, they have gone over 23 times, under 14 times, and pushed twice. Overall, 48.6% of their games have had lines set at over 8 runs.
Heading into today’s game, the Blue Jays are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 20th in the league. This season, they are batting .242 as a team, and their on-base percentage of .314 is 12th in the league. Toronto is also near the top of the league in terms of avoiding strikeouts, as they are 6th in the league in this category.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been one of the league’s top hitters this season, as he comes into the game with a batting average of .321 to go along with 28 home runs and 94 RBIs. He is also on a 4 game hitting streak. George Springer is 2nd on the team with 19 homers but has struggled with a batting average of just .221.
Mets vs. Blue Jays Prediction: Spread
When betting the run line on the Mets this season, it’s been a coin flip. They have a 72-73 record against the run line, with a 39-32 mark on the road. Their average run margin is +0.4 runs per game, and they have a 3.6 run margin in wins and a -3.5 run margin in losses. They have been the favorite in 89 games, going 39-50 against the run line in those contests.
Sean Manaea is looking to bounce back from his last outing, where he finished with a no-decision. Against the Reds on September 6th, he gave up four earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. In that outing, he gave up two home runs. Leading up to that start, Manaea had picked up the win in two straight outings. He didn’t give up a homer in either of those starts. Manaea’s ERA for the season is 3.43, along with a record of 11-5. The left-hander has a WHIP of 1.10 and has made 12 quality starts this year.
Despite being under .500 on the run line overall, the Blue Jays have been a solid bet on the road, going 48-27. They have been particularly good as the underdog, going 44-33 on the run line. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.3 runs per game, while it is -3.6 runs per game in losing efforts.
Bowden Francis is getting the start for the Blue Jays today and comes into the game with a record of 8-4 and an ERA of 3.72. In his 10 starts, he has turned in five quality starts and is averaging 8.61 strikeouts per nine innings. Francis most recently pitched on September 4th, where he took the loss, going six innings and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that outing, he had won three straight starts. So far, he has been much better on the road, with an ERA of 3.91 compared to 5.39 at home.
Mets vs. Blue Jays Pick: Blue Jays ML +105
The best way to play this Mets vs. Blue Jays matchup is to take the Blue Jays on the money line, where they are getting +105. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Blue Jays, meaning you could also look to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Bowden Francis is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for sixth among all starters. As for Sean Manaea, his projected strikeout total is six, which has him coming in at 10th.
