Marlins vs Twins Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 26th
Thursday’s interleague matchup between the Marlins and Twins is set for 7:40 PM ET from Target Field in Minneapolis. The Twins are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -252, while the Marlins are +209 underdogs. The over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
David Festa will start for the Twins, while the Marlins are sending Valente Bellozo to the mound. The Marlins are 58-100 this season, which has them in 5th place in the NL East. The Twins are 82-76 and are 4th in the AL Central. BSFL will be televising Thursday’s matchup.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Marlins 1.5 (-105) | Twins -1.5 (-117)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Marlins +209 | Twins -252
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Marlins vs. Twins Prediction: Moneyline
It was all Minnesota in the last game of this series, as the Twins took down the Marlins by a score of 8-3. The Twins offense only had eight hits but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -193 on the money line.
Miami got off to a fast start in this one, scoring three runs in the first inning. However, they didn’t score another run until putting up five in the top of the 7th. As for the Twins, they scored two runs in the 3rd and added five more in the 7th.
Byron Buxton and Trevor Larnach each had two hits and two RBIs for the Twins. Carlos Santana also drove in three runs while going 1/4. Jake Burger had a two-hit game and drove in three runs for the Marlins.
Miami is on the road today, facing the Twins with an overall record of 58-100, which has them 5th in the NL East, 35.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 18-34 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are looking to even their record on the road, as they are currently 28-49 at home.
As the underdog, the Marlins have gone 54-86 this year compared to just 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-30-9, and they have dropped four straight series overall. Their overall series record is tied 1-1 heading into today’s game three vs. the Twins.
With an overall record of 82-76, the Twins are 4th in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 9.5 games. Minnesota is 29-23 against other teams in the AL Central. The Twins will be at home today, hosting the Marlins, and they are 43-34 at home this season.
Minnesota has dropped three straight series, and their overall series record is 26-20-4 this season. As the favorite, the Twins are 65-46 and 36-27 as the favorite at home. So far, they have gone 39-42 on the road.
Marlins vs. Twins Prediction: Over/Under
The Miami Marlins are on the road today against the Minnesota Twins. The O/U line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Miami’s games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 83-69. When the O/U line has been set at 8.5 runs this season, their record is 29-25. Overall, 20.9% of their games have had O/U lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Heading into today’s game, the Marlins are 28th in the league in runs per game at just 3.8. They have been a little better at home, averaging 4.2 runs per contest. Miami is also near the bottom of the league in home runs and have a collective batting average of just .242. One positive note is that they have the 6th best BABIP in the league.
Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 8/27 in his last seven games with three homers. For the season, he is batting .247 with a team-high 72 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is also batting .247 and is 2nd on the team with 18 homers.
The Twins have played 169 games this season, and 97 have had over/under lines lower than 8.5 runs. The over/under record for the season is 80-72, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the record is 25-22. The combined run average in Twins games this season is 9.1 runs per game.
Carlos Santana comes into the game as the Twins’ leader in home runs, but he is batting just .234 this season. Santana has also struggled at the plate of late, going 7/39 in his last 10 games. Willi Castro and Ryan Jeffers are also near the top of the Twins’ home run leaderboard, but they are batting just .250 and .224, respectively.
Over his last eight games, Byron Buxton has gone 10/33 with one home run and four RBIs. This has pushed his season average to .250. Buxton is also on a five-game hitting streak. Willi Castro is also swinging a hot bat, as he has gone 10/35 in his last 10 games.
Marlins vs. Twins Prediction: Spread
The Marlins have been a solid run line team this season, going 74-84 overall. They have been a bit better on the road, going 39-38 against the run line compared to 35-46 at home. They have been a much better bet as an underdog, going 72-68 against the run line in those games. The Marlins have an average run differential of -1.4 runs per game this season.
Right-hander Valente Bellozo gets the start for the Marlins today as he faces the Twins on the road. Bellozo has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-4 with a 3.82 ERA. In his 12 appearances, he has turned in just two quality starts and is averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo’s most recent outing came on September 20th, where he picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. So far, he has been better on the road, coming in with a 3.89 ERA compared to 4.74 at home.
Minnesota has been a solid run line bet this season, going 73-85 overall. They have been better on the road, going 40-41, compared to 33-44 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 25-22, compared to 48-63 as the favorite. In their wins, they have outscored opponents by an average of 3.7 runs, while in their losses, they have been outscored by an average of 3.7 runs.
Right-hander David Festa gets the start for the Twins today as he faces the Marlins at home. He has made 12 starts this year and has a record of 2-6 with an ERA of 4.80. Festa’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. In his 13 appearances, he has only turned in one quality start. Looking at his numbers, Festa has a strikeouts-per-nine figure of 10.8 and is coming off an outing in which he gave up one earned run in five innings of work. In that start, he gave up three walks and four hits. Festa has given up a homer in three straight outings.
Marlins vs. Twins Pick: Over 8.5 Runs -116
For this Marlins vs. Twins matchup, we actually like the over/under line more than picking the Twins straight up. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Twins, which would give us a push on the money line.
Instead, we recommend taking the over at 8.5 runs. This is paying out at -116, and we have the Twins finishing with a combined 17 hits compared to the Marlins with 15.
If you are looking for a starter to pick up a win, David Festa is a good option. However, we have him finishing with just five strikeouts compared to Valente Bellozo with six.
