Marlins vs Pirates Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 11th
From PNC Park in Pittsburgh, we have the Marlins and Pirates facing off in an NL matchup. This one gets started at 12:35 PM ET, and it is being televised on SN PT. The money line odds have the Pirates at -178 compared to the Marlins at +150. The over/under line is 8.5 runs.
Jonathan Bermudez is starting for the Marlins, and he is facing off against Bailey Falter for the Pirates. Miami is 54-91, while the Pirates are 69-76. Pittsburgh is currently on a three-game winning streak, and they are 5th in the NL Central. The Marlins are 5th in the NL East and have lost two straight.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Marlins 1.5 (-139) | Pirates -1.5 (+116)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Marlins +150 | Pirates -178
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Moneyline
Pittsburgh picked up a 6-4 win over the Marlins in the most recent game of this series. The Pirates had a huge 5th inning, scoring four of their six runs. As for the Marlins, they scored their only run in the 5th and added three more in the 9th.
Joey Wentz got the win for the Pirates out of the bullpen, while Aroldis Chapman got the save. Adam Oller took the loss for Miami out of the bullpen.
Andrew McCutchen and Bryan Reynolds each had two hits and three RBIs for the Pirates. Isiah Kiner-Falefa also had a two-hit game and scored a run.
Miami is 54-91 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 33 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. The Marlins have dropped two straight games and are 16-29 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they are losing the series vs. the Pirates 0-2.
At home, the Marlins are just 28-47 this year, and they are 26-44 on the road. As the underdog, the Marlins are 50-77 this year, and they are 4-14 when favored. Miami’s overall series record is 11-26-9, and they have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Pittsburgh is 69-76 overall and trail the Brewers by 14.5 games in the NL Central. The Pirates have won three straight games, and they are 22-20 against other teams in the NL Central. So far, they have gone 36-38 at home and 33-38 on the road.
As the home favorite, the Pirates have gone 21-20 this year and 32-26 as the favorite overall. When they are the underdog, Pittsburgh is 37-50 this year. Their overall series record is 19-21-6, and they are currently up 2-0 in the series vs. the Marlins.
Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Over/Under
The Miami Marlins are on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates today. Their combined run average for the season is 9.0 runs per game, and their over/under record is 79-62. The over/under line for today’s game is set at 8.5 runs, and their over/under record when the line is set at 8.5 runs is 28-23. Overall, 26 of their games this season have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, accounting for 17.9% of their games.
Over his last four games, Connor Norby has gone 5/17 with three home runs, and seven RBIs. Otto Lopez is also swinging a hot bat right now, going 10/21 in his last five games, including a home run and four RBIs. Lopez is also on a five-game hitting streak heading into today’s game.
Jake Burger has been the Marlins’ top power threat this season, as his 25 homers are 15th in the league. He also leads the team with 61 RBIs. Burger’s batting average is just .241, but he has been able to get on base at a .297 clip. Jesus Sanchez is right behind Burger in the home run and RBI departments, with 17 and 59, respectively.
In games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs this season, the Pirates have gone over the total 30 times and under 22 times. Overall, their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game, and their over/under record for the season is 72-71. The Pirates have played 21 games with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, which accounts for 14.5% of their games this season.
Heading into today’s game, the Pirates are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 19th in the league. This is just slightly below their season-long average of 4.4 runs per game at home. As a team, they are batting .236, which is 16th in the league, and their team on-base percentage of .302 is 20th in the MLB. The Pirates have been one of the worst home run hitting teams in the league this season and are also near the bottom of the league in terms of slugging percentage and OPS.
Andrew McCutchen has been one of the Pirates’ top power threats this season, as his 20 home runs are 2nd on the team, and he is also on a three-game hitting streak. Over his last four games, McCutchen is 5/14 with two homers and four RBIs. Bryan Reynolds comes into the game with a team-high 83 RBIs and is batting .277 for the season.
Marlins vs. Pirates Prediction: Spread
When the Marlins are on the road, they have been a solid bet to cover the run line, as they are 36-34 on the run line away from home. The run line is 2-16 when Miami is the favorite, but 66-61 when they are the underdog. Miami’s average run margin in games they win is +2.8, while it’s -3.8 in games they lose.
Jonathan Bermúdez will be making his first start of the season for the Marlins, as he has been used out of the bullpen in his first two appearances. He went just one inning in his first outing, giving up one run on one hit and struck out two. Bermúdez’s last appearance was on the road against the Rockies, where he went 3 2/3 innings and gave up two runs on six hits.
Despite being under .500 overall, the Pirates have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 80-65. They have been especially good on the road, going 43-28, compared to just 37-37 at home. Pittsburgh’s average run margin is -0.3 runs per game, with a run line record of 57-30 as the underdog.
Bailey Falter gets the start for the Pirates today and is coming off a solid outing vs. the Nationals, where he picked up the win. In that outing, he went 5 innings and gave up 3 earned runs. Looking back further, he has made 24 appearances and seven of these have been quality starts. Falter’s ERA for the season is 4.45, along with a record of 7-7. For the year, he has given up 15 homers and is averaging 6.23 strikeouts per nine innings. Falter’s WHIP for the season is 1.31.
Marlins vs. Pirates Pick: Over 8.5 Runs -112
Our predicted final score for the Pirates vs. Marlins matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Pirates. However, with the Pirates’ money line sitting at -178, we actually like the over in this one, with the over/under line being set at 8.5 runs.
If you’re looking for a parlay, you could pair the Pirates’ money line with the over. However, if you’re looking for a straight bet, we would recommend taking the over, as we have the Pirates’ payout at -178, and we would like to see that line closer to -150.
