Marlins vs Nationals Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 14th
At 4:05 PM ET, the Marlins and Nationals square off in an NL East matchup. This one is being played at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Nationals are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -146 compared to the Marlins at +124. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
Miami will be starting Valente Bellozo, while Patrick Corbin will be on the mound for the Nationals. Corbin has struggled this season, as he is 66-81. The Marlins are 55-93, which has them in 5th place in the NL East. BSFL will be televising Saturday’s matchup.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Marlins 1.5 (-173) | Nationals -1.5 (+143)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Marlins +124 | Nationals -146
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Moneyline
It was all Washington in the last game of this series, as the Nationals took down the Marlins by a score of 4-1. The Nationals offense only had four hits but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were favored at -142 on the money line.
Miami’s lone run came in the 4th inning, as they could only muster eight hits in the game. The Marlins wasted a good outing from Edward Cabrera, who gave up just one hit and no earned runs in six innings of work.
DJ Herz got the start for the Nationals, giving up just one earned run across five innings. He finished with five strikeouts but issued four walks. Kyle Finnegan came out of the bullpen for the save.
Miami is 55-93 overall, putting them 5th in the NL East, 33.5 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. So far, they have gone just 17-30 against other teams in the NL East. The Marlins are 4-6 over their last 10 games and are 27-46 on the road compared to 28-47 at home.
As the road underdog, the Marlins are 27-46 this year, and they are 51-79 as the underdog overall. Miami has really struggled as the favorite, going just 4-14 this year. The Marlins’ overall series record is 11-26-9, and they will be looking to pick up a series win today vs. the Nationals.
Washington is 66-81 overall and 22 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. The Nationals are 4th in the division and have gone 21-23 in divisional games this year. At home, the Nationals are 34-39 this year and 32-42 on the road.
As the favorite, the Nationals have gone 13-13 this year and 9-9 as the home favorite. They have been the underdog in most of their games, where they are 53-68. Washington’s overall series record is 17-23-6, and they are currently tied with the Marlins in their series.
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Over/Under
When the Miami Marlins are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs. This season, their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game, and their over/under record is 79-64. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 28-23. In total, 28 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 18.9% of their games this season.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 29th in the league. This number is even worse on the road, where they are averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Miami does have a decent team batting average of .241, but their on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and OPS numbers are all among the worst in the MLB.
Jake Burger and Jesús Sánchez have been the Marlins’ top power threats this season, with 25 and 17 homers, respectively. Burger also leads the team with 61 RBIs, while Sánchez is right behind him at 59. Sánchez comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak, and Bryan De La Cruz has also been swinging a hot bat, with a five-game hitting streak.
The Nationals are at home against the Marlins today, and the over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs. Washington’s games have had an average of 9.0 runs scored per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-71. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 19-22. Overall, 39.5% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs or higher.
Washington’s offense has been one of the worst in the league this season, as they are just 22nd in runs per game at 4.2. They have been a bit better at home, averaging 4.1 runs per contest. As a team, the Nationals are batting .244, which is 12th in the league, and they are also one of the best teams in terms of not striking out a lot. However, their team OBP and SLG are both just average.
CJ Abrams comes into the game as the Nationals leader in home runs (20) but is hitting just .239 for the season. Over his last six games, he has two home runs but is just 5/23. Luis Garcia Jr. is hitting .282 for the season and is 2nd on the team with 16 homers.
Marlins vs. Nationals Prediction: Spread
When the Marlins win, they do so by an average of 2.8 runs per game. When they lose, they lose by an average of 3.8 runs per game. Their overall run line record is 69-79, including a 37-36 mark on the road. They are 32-43 against the run line at home. They have been the favorite in 18 games and are just 2-16 in those games.
Miami is sending Valente Bellozo to the mound today vs. the Nationals. He has made 10 starts this year and has a record of 2-3 with a 3.57 ERA. Bellozo’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.28. In his 10 appearances, he has turned in two quality starts and is averaging 5.94 strikeouts per nine innings. Bellozo most recently faced the Nationals on September 4th, where he finished with a no-decision, going six innings and not giving up a run. Before that outing, he had given up at least one homer in three straight starts.
Washington has a losing run differential on the season, but they have been profitable on the run line. They are 82-65 on the run line this season, including a 43-31 mark on the run line on the road. They have been a better bet on the run line as the underdog, going 70-51, compared to 12-14 as the favorite.
Left-hander Patrick Corbin gets the start for the Nationals today as he faces off against the Marlins at home. This year, he has made 29 starts and has a record of 5-13. Corbin’s ERA is 5.60, along with a WHIP of 1.52. In his 29 appearances, he has turned in eight quality starts. Looking back at his most recent outing, Corbin took the loss, giving up seven earned runs in six innings of work. Before that, he had won three straight starts. So far, he has been much better at home, coming in with an ERA of 4.73 compared to 7.34 on the road.
Marlins vs. Nationals Pick: Marlins ML +124
Our pick for today’s Marlins vs. Nationals game is to take the Marlins on the money line, where they are currently at +124. We have the Marlins winning this one by a final score of 5-4.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Patrick Corbin finishing with six strikeouts, while Marlins starter Valente Bellozo is projected to finish with six as well. However, we have Bellozo finishing with a better line than Corbin, as he is predicted to give up fewer runs.
Offensively, the Marlins are projected to finish with nine hits, compared to the Nationals, who we have finishing with nine. However, the Nationals are projected to finish with fewer runs, and they are also predicted to finish with fewer home runs.
