Guardians vs Royals Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 4th
At 7:40 PM ET, the Guardians and Royals will face off in an AL Central matchup. Wednesday’s matchup is taking place at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, MO. The forecast for Wednesday’s game calls for clear skies and temperatures in the upper 80s.
Kansas City is currently favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -138 compared to the Guardians at +117. The over/under line is at 8.5 runs, and the Royals will be looking to end a seven-game losing streak. Cleveland has won three straight, and they are 80-59 overall, while the Royals are 75-65. Starting for the Guardians is Ben Lively, and he is facing off against Seth Lugo.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Guardians 1.5 (-180) | Royals -1.5 (+148)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Guardians +117 | Royals -138
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction: Moneyline
Cleveland cruised to a 7-1 win over the Royals in the most recent game of this series. The Guardians had a huge 2nd inning, scoring seven of their eight runs. As for the Royals, they scored their only run in the 5th. Heading into the game, the Guardians were favored at -133 on the money line.
Tanner Bibee started for the Guardians and picked up the win, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with six strikeouts but issued three walks. On the other side, Brady Singer got the start for the Royals and took the loss, giving up two earned runs in 5 2/3 innings of work.
At the plate, the Guardians were led by Brayan Rocchio and Kyle Manzardo, who each had three hits and combined for five RBIs. Rocchio also hit the game’s only home run. As for the Royals, Bobby Witt Jr. went 2/3 with an RBI.
Cleveland is on a three-game winning streak, and they lead the AL Central with an 80-59 record. The Guardians are 4.5 games ahead of the Twins for the division lead. So far, they are 24-20 against other teams in the AL Central.
At home, the Guardians have gone 43-25 this year, and they are above .500 on the road as well, going 37-34. As the favorite, Cleveland has gone 56-30 this year, and they are 24-29 as the underdog. Cleveland has won two straight games on the road, and their overall series record is 25-13-5 this year.
Kansas City is 75-65 overall and 3rd in the AL Central, trailing the Guardians by 5.5 games. The Royals have dropped seven straight games, and they have lost the first two games of this series vs. the Guardians. So far, they have gone 29-16 in AL Central matchups.
At home, the Royals are 41-30 this season, and they are just above .500 at 34-35 on the road. As the favorite, the Royals are 43-26 this year, and they are 32-39 as the underdog. Kansas City has dropped four straight at home, and their overall series record is 19-22-2.
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction: Over/Under
The Cleveland Guardians are on the road to face the Kansas City Royals with an over/under line of 8.5 runs. The combined run average for their games this season is 8.6 runs, and their over/under record is 65-64. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 20-17. Overall, 27 of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, accounting for 19.4% of their contests.
Heading into today’s game, José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are the Guardians’ top home run threats, as Ramírez has 34 homers (5th in the league) and Naylor has gone deep 29 times (9th in the MLB). As a team, the Guardians are 11th in home runs and are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the majors. Overall, they are batting .239 and have the 3rd fewest strikeouts in the league.
Josh Naylor has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 12/28 in his last seven games with a homer and eight RBIs. Andrés Giménez has also been swinging well, batting .241 in his last seven games and has a three-game hitting streak. During this stretch, he has two homers and four RBIs.
When the Kansas City Royals play at home this season, the over/under line has been set at 8.5 runs 49 times, and the over has hit in 15 of those games. Their games have averaged 8.9 runs per game this season, and their overall over/under record is 64-71. Their games have had an average over/under line of 8 runs, and the over has hit in 35.0% of their games when the line has been set at 8.5 runs.
For the season, the Royals are averaging 4.8 runs per game, which is 10th in the league. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 5.1 runs per game. Overall, they are 13th in the league in home runs and have the 7th best team batting average in the MLB. Kansas City’s offense has been led by Bobby Witt Jr., who is batting .340 for the season and has a team-high 30 home runs. Witt Jr. is also 6th in the league with 97 RBIs.
Over his last nine games, Witt Jr. has gone 8/34 with four homers. Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino have also been key run producers for the Royals, as they are also 1-2 on the team in RBIs, with 94 and 97, respectively. Both players have also hit at least 19 homers this season.
Guardians vs. Royals Prediction: Spread
The Cleveland Guardians have a run line record of 70-69 this season, and are 33-35 against the run line at home. They have a run line record of 37-34 on the road, and have covered the run line in two straight road games. As the underdog, the Guardians have a run line record of 31-22 this season.
Right-hander Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians today as he faces the Royals on the road. He has made 24 starts this season and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. Lively’s WHIP for the season is 1.23, and he has turned in nine quality starts. In his last outing, Lively finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Lively’s ERA at home is 4.29, compared to 4.03 on the road.
When it comes to the run line, the Royals have been a solid play this season, going 76-64 overall. They have been especially good at home, going 39-32 against the run line. Their average run margin for the season is +0.6, and they have been a good play as the underdog, going 41-30 against the run line. In their wins, they have an average run margin of +4.1, while in their losses, it drops to -3.4.
Seth Lugo gets the start for the Royals today and comes into the game with a record of 14-8 and an ERA of 3.12. So far, he has made 28 starts, and opponents are batting .229 this season. Lugo has turned in 19 quality starts this year, and his ERA at home is 3.53 compared to 3.47 on the road. In his last outing, Lugo finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on six hits. Before that, he had given up at least five earned runs in three straight starts.
Guardians vs. Royals Pick: Royals ML -138
Getting the Royals at -138 on the money line is a great value, and it’s our recommended bet for this matchup. We actually have the Royals winning this one at home by a final score of 7-6. Offensively, we have the Royals finishing with 10 hits compared to the Guardians with 11.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Seth Lugo is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is actually the third-worst among starters. As for Ben Lively, he is projected to finish with five strikeouts, which is the fourth worst.
