Giants vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 6th
From PETCO Park in San Diego, we have the Giants and Padres facing off in an NL West matchup. First pitch for this one is set for 9:40 PM ET. The Giants are 69-72, while the Padres are 80-62, and they are 2nd in the NL West. San Diego is the heavy favorite on the money line (-215), while the Giants are at +180.
Friday’s forecast in San Diego calls for clear skies and temperatures in the mid-80s. APLTV is carrying this one on TV, and the over/under line is currently at 7.5 runs. Mason Black is starting for the Giants, and he is facing off against Michael King.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Giants 1.5 (-119) | Padres -1.5 (-104)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Giants +180 | Padres -215
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Giants vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
Heading into their last game vs. the Diamondbacks, the Giants closed out the series with a 3-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -157. Offensively, the Giants scored their three runs on nine hits and didn’t hit a home run.
Blake Snell got the start for the Giants but only lasted one inning, giving up one run on two hits. He also issued two walks in the inning and took the loss. Patrick Bailey was excellent out of the bullpen, going three innings and giving up just one run on two hits. The Giants also had three other relievers pitch a scoreless inning.
San Francisco is 69-72 overall and trail the Dodgers by 15.5 games in the NL West. So far, they are 22-21 in divisional games. The Giants are looking to get back on track, having gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games. This record has them 4th in the NL West, 15.5 games behind the Dodgers.
At home, the Giants have gone 40-32 this year compared to 29-40 on the road. As the underdog, the Giants are 25-40 this year, and they have dropped four straight as the underdog overall. San Francisco has been better as the favorite, putting together a mark of 44-32 this year.
Xander Bogaerts and the Padres will be looking to get back on track after closing out their series vs. the Tigers with a 4-3 loss. San Diego was the heavy favorite at -159 going into the game but couldn’t close things out, as the Tigers scored four runs in the top of the 9th. Martin Perez was excellent for the Padres, going 6 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. However, the Padres bullpen couldn’t hold the lead, and Robert Suarez took the loss out of the bullpen.
Martinez Perez was also sharp for the Padres, going 6 1/3 innings, and didn’t give up a run. They also got a big game from Xander Bogaerts, going 3/4 with a homer and two RBIs.
With an overall record of 80-62, the Padres are five games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. So far, they are just .500 in divisional matchups, and they will be hosting the Giants today. San Diego is 39-33 at home this season and 41-29 on the road.
San Diego has won two straight series, taking two of three from the Astros and Tigers. As for their overall form, the Padres are 6-4 across their last 10 games. So far, they have been the favorite in 89 games, going 51-38 in those matchups. As for their record as the underdog, they are 29-24.
Giants vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
The San Francisco Giants have an over/under record of 29-23 in games with an O/U line of 7.5 runs this season. The Giants have played in 72 games with O/U lines set above 7.5 runs, which accounts for 51.1% of their games. Their games have had an average combined run total of 8.7 runs per game this season.
So far this season, the Giants offense is averaging 4.3 runs per game, which is 17th in the league. They are also 18th in home runs and have a team batting average of .240, which is 15th in the MLB. One area where the Giants have been strong is drawing walks, as they are 9th in the league in this category.
San Francisco’s most consistent power hitter has been Matt Chapman, who has gone deep 22 times this season and is batting .247. He also leads the team with 69 RBIs. Heliot Ramos is right behind him in the home run department, with 20 homers and a batting average of .274. Over his last eight games, Mike Yastrzemski has three home runs but is just 6/26.
Tonight’s over/under line is 7.5 runs, which is lower than the Padres’ season average of 8 runs per game. San Diego’s games have gone over the total 76 times this season, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, the over/under record is 23-23. Overall, 59.2% of their games have had higher lines than 7.5 runs.
The Padres come into today’s game as the top-hitting team in the league, with a team batting average of .264. They are also the top home run hitting team in the league and have the league’s top two home run hitters in Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar. Both players have 22 homers this season. Machado’s 86 RBIs are the best mark on the team and 12th best in the league, while Profar and Jackson Merrill are 2nd and 3rd in the Padres lineup in RBIs.
Luis Arraez has been hot at the plate of late, going 12/29 in his last seven games. This has pushed his season average to .311, which is the 2nd best mark on the team. Arraez is also 2nd on the team in RBIs and is currently on a five-game hitting streak. Jackson Merrill has also been swinging a hot bat, going 9/31 with three homers in his last eight games.
Giants vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
San Francisco has been a strong bet on the run line this season, going 69-72 overall. They have been particularly good on the run line on the road, going 38-31. The Giants have been a better run line bet as the underdog, going 38-27, compared to 31-45 as the favorite. Their average run differential in games they have won is +3.1, while their average run differential in losses is -3.2.
Mason Black and the Giants are on the road to take on the Padres. Black has made 1 start and 1 relief appearance so far this season. In his start, he took the loss against the Marlins, going 5 innings and giving up 2 earned runs. He also made a relief appearance against the Pirates, giving up 4 runs in 2 2/3 innings.
The Padres have been a profitable run line team this season, going 72-70. They have been especially good on the road, where they are 44-26 against the run line. They have been a better run line bet as an underdog, going 36-17, compared to 36-53 as the favorite. Their average run differential this season is +0.5 runs per game.
Right-hander Michael King gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Giants at home. He has made 26 starts this season and has a record of 11-8 with a 3.17 ERA. King’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. In his 27 appearances, he has turned in 12 quality starts. King’s last outing came on August 29th vs. the Cardinals, where he took the loss, going 4 1/3 innings and giving up two earned runs. Before that, he had won three straight starts. His ERA at home is 3.66 compared to 3.36 on the road.
Giants vs. Padres Pick: Giants ML +180
The best way to play this Giants vs. Padres matchup is to take the Giants on the money line, where they are offering a payout of +180. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Giants, which means there is also some value on the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we do have Mason Black finishing with more strikeouts than Michael King. However, our projections have King going for seven K’s, which is higher than his line of six. As for Black, he is projected to finish with seven strikeouts.
