Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 22nd
At 2:10 PM ET, the Diamondbacks and Brewers square off in an NL matchup. This one is being played at American Family Field in Milwaukee, and the Brewers are the slight favorites on the money line, with their odds sitting at -122. The money line odds for an Arizona win are at +103, and the Diamondbacks are 3rd in the NL West, with a record of 87-68.
Arizona will be looking to extend their four-game winning streak with a win on Sunday, as they have won four straight. They will send Jordan Montgomery to the mound vs. a Brewers team that is starting Frankie Montas.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Diamondbacks 1.5 (-207) | Brewers -1.5 (+168)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Diamondbacks +103 | Brewers -122
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction: Moneyline
It was all Arizona in the last game of this series, as the Diamondbacks took down the Brewers by a score of 5-0. The D-backs offense only had two more hits than the Brewers and struck out seven times, but still picked up a convincing win. Heading into the game, they were at -107 on the money line.
Merrill Kelly started for the Diamondbacks and picked up the win, going five innings and not giving up a run. He finished the game with just two strikeouts and didn’t issue a walk. Aaron Civale got the start for the Brewers and took the loss, giving up three earned runs in just 4 1/3 innings of work.
Ketel Marte and Joc Pederson each homered for the Diamondbacks, while Jose Herrera went 1/4 with two RBIs. Marte, Pederson, and Marte each scored two runs for Arizona’s offense.
Arizona is on a four-game winning streak, and they are 87-68 overall this season. In the NL West, they are five games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. So far, they have gone 26-20 in divisional games.
The Diamondbacks have taken a 3-0 series lead vs. the Brewers heading into today’s game. At home, the Diamondbacks are 42-33 this season, and they are 45-35 on the road. As the road underdog, the Diamondbacks have gone 29-24 this year, and they are 36-38 as the underdog overall. Arizona’s overall series record is 26-19-4, and they have lost two straight series.
Milwaukee is looking to avoid losing four straight games today, as they have dropped three in a row and are 88-67 overall. The Brewers lead the NL Central by nine games over the Cubs. So far, they have gone 30-19 against other teams in the NL Central.
At home, the Brewers are 44-33 this year and 44-34 on the road. As the favorite, Milwaukee has gone 51-37 and 37-30 as the underdog. The Brewers have won three straight series and are 28-17-4 overall in series this year.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction: Over/Under
The Diamondbacks are on the road today against the Brewers, with the over/under line set at 8.5 runs. Arizona’s games have averaged 10.3 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 88-60. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 34-19. Overall, 57 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 36.8% of their games this season.
Arizona comes into today’s game as the top-scoring offense in the league, averaging 5.5 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5.8 runs per contest. The Diamondbacks have been one of the league’s top power-hitting teams, as they are 5th in home runs and have the league’s best on-base percentage and OPS.
Ketel Marte has been swinging a hot bat of late, going 9/29 with three homers over his last nine games. For the season, he is batting .296 with a team-high 92 RBIs. Eugenio Suárez has also been a big power threat for the Diamondbacks, as he is 2nd on the team with 28 homers and is 12th in the league with 97 RBIs.
The Milwaukee Brewers are home today against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The over/under line for the game is set at 8.5 runs, which is slightly lower than their combined run average of 8.8 runs per game. The Brewers have played 30 games this season with an over/under line of 8.5 runs, and their record in those games is 30-24. Overall, the over/under record for the Brewers this season is 78-67.
William Contreras has been swinging a hot bat for the Brewers, going 7/17 in his last five games with a home run and four RBIs. For the season, he is batting .284 and is 2nd on the team with 92 RBIs. Willy Adames has been a big run producer for the Brewers, as his 109 RBIs is 5th in the league, and he is also 10th in the league with 32 homers.
As a team, the Brewers are 7th in the league in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better on the road this season, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. Overall, they are 9th in batting average and have the 5th best on-base percentage in the MLB.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Prediction: Spread
Arizona is a team that has been profitable on the run line this season, going 81-74 overall. They have been especially good on the run line on the road, going 47-33. They have covered the run line in four straight road games and have been a strong bet as the underdog, going 46-28 on the run line in those games.
Jordan Montgomery gets the start for the Diamondbacks today and comes in with a record of 8-7 and an ERA of 6.23. So far, he has made 20 starts, and opponents are batting .297 this year. In his 20 starts, Montgomery has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 6.15 strikeouts per nine innings. The left-hander most recently started on September 17th, where he took the loss, going 4 2/3 innings, and giving up three earned runs on six hits. Before that, he had made three straight bullpen appearances.
When betting the run line for the Milwaukee Brewers, it’s been more profitable to take them as the underdog, as they are 44-23 against the run line in those games. They have a losing run line record at home (35-42) and have failed to cover in their last five games at home. The Brewers have an average run margin of 0.8 runs per game, with a scoring margin of 0.5 runs per game at home and 1.1 runs per game on the road. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.6 runs per game, compared to -2.9 runs per game in losing games.
Frankie Montas will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Phillies, as he gets the start for the Brewers today. In that September 17th start, he took the loss, going 5 2/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Looking back over his last four outings, Montas has given up at least three earned runs in three of them. Montas’ record for the season is 7-11, and his ERA is 4.50. Out of his 28 starts, he has nine quality starts and is averaging 8.62 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, Montas has allowed 20 homers and is averaging 3.81 walks per nine innings.
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Pick: Diamondbacks ML +103
Getting the Diamondbacks at +103 on the money line is a great value bet for today’s Diamondbacks and Brewers matchup. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Diamondbacks, making them a great pick to win straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Frankie Montas finishing with six strikeouts compared to Jordan Montgomery with five. However, we still have Montas finishing with a better chance of picking up the win compared to Montgomery.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks are projected to have a much better day at the plate compared to the Brewers. The Diamondbacks are projected to finish with 10 hits compared to the Brewers with eight.
Another way to play this one would be to take the over, as we have the line sitting at 8.5 runs, and our prediction is for this one to finish with a combined 11 runs.
