Cubs vs Phillies Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 25th

There does appear to be a chance for light rain in Philadelphia on Wednesday, where the Phillies and Cubs are playing at Citizens Bank Park. The game has a start time of 6:05 PM ET. MARQ is carrying this game on TV.

The Phillies are favored on the money line, with their odds sitting at -192 compared to the Cubs at +160. This NL matchup features a Cubs club that is 81-77, while the Phillies are 93-65, putting them first in the NL East. Javier Assad is starting for the Cubs, while the Phillies have Cristopher Sanchez on the mound.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Cubs 1.5 (-135) | Phillies -1.5 (+112)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Cubs +160 | Phillies -192

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Moneyline

Chicago cruised to a 10-4 win over the Phillies in the most recent game of this series. The Cubs had a huge 2nd inning, scoring six of their ten runs. As for the Phillies, they scored their final run in the 4th. Heading into the game, the Cubs were favored at -108.

Justin Steele only went four innings for the Cubs but gave up just two hits and two earned runs. He finished the game with three strikeouts but issued zero walks. On the other side, Tanner Banks was tagged for three homers and three runs in just 1 1/3 innings of work for the Phillies.

Cody Bellinger, Nico Hoerner, and Seiya Suzuki each had two RBIs for the Cubs’ offense. Bellinger, Dansby Swanson, and Pete Crow-Armstrong each had two hits and scored twice for Chicago.

Chicago is 81-77 overall, putting them 2nd in the NL Central. Currently, they trail the Brewers by 9.5 games. The Cubs are on the road today, facing the Phillies and are 39-41 on the road this year.

The Cubs have gone just 21-28 against other teams in the NL Central. Chicago has been the favorite in 81 of their games, going 43-38 in those matchups. As the underdog, the Cubs are 38-39 this season. Their overall series record is 22-25-3, and they are currently tied in this series vs. the Phillies.

Philadelphia is 93-65 overall this season, putting them in 1st place in the NL East. They currently lead the Mets by 5.5 games for the top spot in the division. The Phillies are 28-21 against other teams in the NL East.

At home, the Phillies have gone 53-27 this season, and they are just above .500 at 40-38 on the road. As the favorite, Philadelphia has gone 80-47 this year, and they are 52-24 as the favorite at home. Looking at their overall series record, the Phillies are 27-18-7, but they have dropped two straight series.

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Over/Under

Chicago Cubs games have had an average combined run total of 8.8 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 74-78. The over/under line for today’s game against the Philadelphia Phillies is set at 8 runs, and the Cubs have gone 13-19-2 in games with that line. Overall, 48.7% of their games have had over/under lines set at 8 or higher, with 29.7% of their games having lower lines.

For the season, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. However, they have been a better offensive team on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per game. As a team, they are batting .243, which is 12th in the league, and are 15th in home runs. Chicago has been good at drawing walks this season and have the 7th best on-base percentage in the league.

Ian Happ and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with 21 homers, and Happ leads the Cubs with 86 RBIs. Nico Hoerner has been hot of late, going 11/25 in his last seven games, and is batting .272 for the season. Seiya Suzuki is also batting well for the Cubs, hitting .281 with 21 homers.

The Philadelphia Phillies have an Over/Under record of 74-75 this season, with an average combined run average of 8.9 runs per game. When the O/U line is set at 8 runs, their record is 19-18-3. The O/U line for today’s game against the Chicago Cubs is set at 8 runs, which is right in line with their season average. The Phillies have played 73 games with O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, which accounts for 46.2% of their games this season.

As a team, the Phillies are 4th in the MLB in scoring at 4.8 runs per game. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. Overall, they are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams and have the 4th best team batting average in the league. Not only do they not strike out a lot, but they are also one of the league’s most disciplined teams at the plate, as they are 7th in walks.

Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber have been two of the Phillies’ top power threats this season, with Harper’s 30 homers being 2nd on the team and Schwarber leading the way with 38. Harper is also 3rd on the team in RBIs, while Schwarber’s 102 RBIs is the best mark in the league. Schwarber has three homers in his past eight games and is batting .257 in that stretch, while Nick Castellanos has gone 11/29 in his last eight games.

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Spread

When betting on the Cubs this season, it’s been more profitable to take the run line on the road, where they are 47-33. They have a run differential of +0.3 runs per game away from Wrigley Field, compared to +0.5 at home. They have been a better bet as the underdog, going 50-27 vs. the run line, compared to 27-54 as the favorite. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.8 runs per game, while it’s -3.1 in losses.

Right-hander Javier Assad gets the start for the Cubs today as he faces the Phillies on the road. He has made 28 starts this season and has a record of 7-5 with a 3.34 ERA. Out of his 28 starts, Assad has turned in six quality starts and is averaging 7.63 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Assad finished with a no-decision, giving up three earned runs in five innings of work. Before that, he had gone three straight starts without taking a loss. Assad has been much better at home this year, coming in with a 2.58 ERA compared to 4.43 on the road.

The Phillies have been a strong run line bet this season, covering in 76 of their 158 games. They have been especially good on the road, going 40-38 against the run line. They have an average run margin of +0.7 runs per game, but that number jumps to +1.1 runs per game at home.

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has made 30 starts this season and has a record of 11-9. His ERA is 3.25, along with a WHIP of 1.24. Sánchez has turned in 17 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout this year. Per nine innings, he is averaging 7.58 strikeouts and just 2.19 walks. In his last outing, Sánchez picked up the win, going five innings and giving up two earned runs on three hits. Before that, he had gone three straight outings without giving up an earned run.

Cubs vs. Phillies Pick: Over 8 Runs -112

Our prediction for today’s Cubs vs. Phillies game is to take the over, with the line sitting at 8 runs. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Phillies, giving us some wiggle room on the over/under line.

If you’re looking for a money line pick, we would also recommend taking the Phillies, but with a payout of -192, we think there is more value on the over. Looking at some potential player props, you could look at Javier Assad to finish with six strikeouts, compared to Cristopher Sanchez with five.