Cubs vs Phillies Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 23rd

From Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, we have the Cubs and Phillies facing off in an NL matchup. Monday’s forecast in Philadelphia calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. The money line odds have the Phillies at -177 compared to the Cubs at +149. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.

First pitch for this one is set for 6:40 PM ET, and MARQ will be televising the game. Nate Pearson is starting for the Cubs, and they are 80-76, which has them 2nd in the NL Central. The Phillies are 92-64 and are 1st in the NL East. Aaron Nola is the Phillies’ starter.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Cubs 1.5 (-149) | Phillies -1.5 (+122)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Cubs +149 | Phillies -177

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Moneyline

Heading into their last game vs. the Nationals, the Cubs closed out the series with a 5-0 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -207. Offensively, the Cubs scored their five runs on seven hits and didn’t hit a home run.

Shota Imanaga put together a good start for the Cubs, going seven innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just three walks and struck out four Nationals batters. Chicago’s offense was carried by Miguel Amaya, who went 2/3 with a double, two RBIs, and a run scored. The Cubs also had three other players with a single hit.

Chicago is nine games behind the Brewers in the NL Central, heading into today’s road matchup vs. the Phillies. The Cubs are 80-76 overall, and they are 21-28 in divisional games. This year, they have been good at home, going 42-36, but they are just below .500 at 38-40 on the road.

As the favorite, the Cubs are 43-38 this season and 37-38 as the underdog. They have an overall series record of 22-25-3, and they took their most recent series vs. the Nationals. The Cubs are 5-5 over their last 10 games and are playing today’s game as the road team.

Heading into their last game vs. the Mets, the Phillies closed out the series with a 2-1 loss. This was especially tough, as they held a lead going into the bottom of the 7th before the Mets scored a run to tie things up. Philadelphia was the -141 favorite on the money line going into the game.

Zack Wheeler put together a good start for the Phillies, going seven innings and giving up just two earned runs, and striking out eight. However, he was stuck with the loss, as the Phillies’ offense scored only one run. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos each had two hits, and the Phillies’s only run came from a solo home run by Turner in the 1st inning.

Philadelphia is 92-64 overall and leads the NL East by five games over the Mets. The Phillies lost the final two games of their series vs. the Mets and are just 4-6 across their last 10 games. At home, the Phillies are 52-26 this season and 40-38 on the road.

So far, the Phillies have gone 28-21 against other teams in the NL East. As the favorite, the Phillies have gone 79-46 this year and 13-18 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 27-18-7, and they lost two straight series.

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Over/Under

The Chicago Cubs are on the road today against the Philadelphia Phillies. The O/U line for the game is set at 8 runs. The Cubs’ games have averaged 8.7 runs per game this season, and their O/U record is 73-78. When the O/U line has been set at 8 runs, their record is 12-19-1. So far this season, 49.4% of their games have had O/U lines set higher than 8 runs, and 30.1% have had lower lines. The under has hit in their last three games.

So far this season, the Cubs are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 13th in the league. They have been even better on the road, putting up 5.1 runs per contest. Chicago has been a good home run-hitting team, as they are 13th in the league in homers. As a team, the Cubs are batting .243, which is 12th in the MLB.

Coming into the game, Ian Happ and Michael Busch are tied for 2nd on the team with 21 homers, with Happ leading the team with 85 RBIs. However, Busch has struggled at the plate of late, going 6/27 over his last nine games. Nico Hoerner and Seiya Suzuki are also near the top of the Cubs’ home run leaderboard, with Hoerner batting .269 and Suzuki at .279.

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Chicago Cubs tonight with the over/under line set at 8 runs. The combined run average for Phillies games this season is 8.9 runs, and their over/under record is 73-75. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, the Phillies have a record of 18-18-2. So far this season, 46.8% of their games have had over/under lines set higher than 8 runs.

Philadelphia comes into the game as one of the top offenses in the league, averaging 4.8 runs per game and batting a collective .257. They have been even better at home, averaging 5 runs per contest. The Phillies are also 6th in the league in home runs and have the 2nd best team BABIP in the league.

Over the past five games, Alec Bohm has gone 6/20 with two homers and six RBIs, while Nick Castellanos has gone 8/23 with two homers over his last six games. Castellanos is also on a four-game hitting streak. For the season, Kyle Schwarber leads the team with 36 homers and is 11th in the league with 99 RBIs.

Cubs vs. Phillies Prediction: Spread

When the Cubs win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, which is well above the 0.4 runs per game they’ve been outscoring opponents by overall. Their run line record is 76-80, and they’ve been a good bet on the run line on the road, going 46-32. They’ve been an underdog in 75 games, and they’ve covered the run line in 49 of them.

The Cubs are sending Nate Pearson to the mound today, and he has made 57 appearances this season but no starts. Pearson’s ERA is 4.71, and his WHIP is 1.33. This year, he has a record of 2-2. Opponents have hit .257 off Pearson this year, and his strikeout per nine innings figure is 10.14. Looking back at his recent outings, Pearson has finished with a no-decision in each of his last three outings. Most recently, he pitched two-thirds of an inning out of the bullpen and didn’t allow a run. Before that, he had given up a homer in two straight outings.

When betting on the Phillies’ run line this season, it’s been a coin flip as they have a 75-81 record. They’ve been a better bet on the road, going 40-38, compared to 35-43 at home. They’ve been favored in 125 games, going 59-66 on the run line, and have gone 16-15 as the underdog. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.9, while it’s -3.8 in losses.

Right-hander Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies today as he faces the Cubs at home. Nola has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 12-8 with an ERA of 3.54. In his 31 appearances, he has turned in 19 quality starts and is averaging 8.75 strikeouts per nine innings. Nola’s most recent outing came against the Brewers, where he finished with a no-decision, going seven innings and giving up one earned run on three hits. Before that, he had lost three straight starts. One of his complete games this year was a shutout.

Cubs vs. Phillies Pick: Cubs ML +149

Our recommended bet for today’s Cubs vs. Phillies game is to take the Cubs on the money line, where they are currently listed at +149. We actually have the Cubs winning this one by a score of 5-4, giving us some good value with the Cubs as the underdog.

Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Aaron Nola going five innings and finishing with five strikeouts. If you’re looking at this game from a DFS perspective, there are better options than Nola, as we have him finishing with the third-fewest strikeouts among starters today.