Braves vs Reds Prediction & MLB Odds For Thursday, September 19th
Thursday’s Braves vs. Reds game has a first pitch set for 1:10 PM ET from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. The Reds are 74-79 and will be sending Julian Aguiar to the mound vs. a Braves team that is 82-70 and starting Chris Sale. Atlanta is the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -206 compared to the Reds at +173. The over/under line is currently at 8.5 runs.
Chris Sale and the Braves are looking to keep pace with the Nationals and Phillies in the NL East, as they are currently 3rd in the division. The Reds are 4th in the NL Central, and this game will be televised on BSSO.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (-124) | Reds 1.5 (+101)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Braves -206 | Reds +173
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Braves vs. Reds Prediction: Moneyline
Atlanta cruised to a 7-1 win over the Reds in the most recent game of this series. The Braves had a huge 7th inning, scoring three runs in the 1st and adding four more in the 7th. As for the Reds, they scored their only run in the 6th. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -139.
Spencer Schwellenbach pitched well for the Braves in this one, going six innings and giving up just one run. He finished the game with five strikeouts but issued two walks. On the other side, Jakob Junis got the start for the Reds and gave up one earned run in six innings of work.
Marcell Ozuna and Michael Harris II each homered for the Braves, while Gio Urshela scored three times and drove in three runs while going 2/4. Matt Olson also had a two-hit game at the plate.
With an overall record of 82-70, the Braves are nine games behind the Phillies in the NL East and trail the Mets by two games for the second Wild Card spot. Atlanta is 24-22 against other teams in the NL East. The Braves will be looking to get a win today, as they are just 5-5 over their last 10 games.
At home, the Braves have gone 42-33 this season and are just above .500 at 40-37 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves have gone 69-52 and 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 26-17-7 this season.
Cincinnati is 74-79 overall this season, and they are 14.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central. The Reds are also 4th in the division, sandwiched between the Cubs and Pirates. Cincinnati is 21-25 against other teams in the NL Central this year.
At home, the Reds are 37-40 this season, and they are just above .500 at 37-39 on the road. So far, they have been an even 33-33 when favored and 41-46 as the underdog. Cincinnati’s overall series record is 19-27-3, and they are currently 1-1 in their series with the Braves.
Braves vs. Reds Prediction: Over/Under
When the Braves are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs per game. Their games have averaged 8.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 57-90. The average over/under line for their games this season is 8 runs per game. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 14-26. This season, 45 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 29.6% of their games. The majority of their games have had over/under lines set below 8.5 runs, with 67 games falling below that threshold, accounting for 44.1% of their games.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top run producers this season, as his 100 RBIs is 9th in the MLB and leads the Braves. He has also gone deep 38 times, which is 5th in the league. Ozuna has been even better of late, hitting .306 over his last eight games. Matt Olson is also a power threat in the lineup, as he has 26 homers this season and is batting .241.
As a team, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game and have been a better offensive team on the road this season. Overall, they are the league’s 6th best home run hitting team and have the 12th best slugging percentage in the league. Heading into today’s game, Ronald Acuna Jr. is on a four-game hitting streak, while both Ramon Laureano and Michael Harris II have three-game streaks.
Today’s over/under line for the Cincinnati Reds game against the Atlanta Braves is set at 8.5 runs. The Reds have played 73 games this season with over/under lines set higher than 8.5 runs, which accounts for 47.7% of their games. Their combined run average for the season is 8.7 runs per game, and their over/under record is 71-75 overall. When the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 19-16.
Elly De La Cruz has been one of the Reds’ most consistent hitters this season, batting .257 with a team-leading 24 home runs and 69 RBIs. He is also on a three-game hitting streak. Spencer Steer and Jeimer Candelario are also near the top of the Reds’ home run leaderboard, but both are batting under .232 for the season.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.4 runs per game, which is 15th in the league. Their team batting average of .233 is 18th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in strikeouts. Over their last five games, TJ Friedl has gone 9/19 with two homers and six RBIs.
Braves vs. Reds Prediction: Spread
When betting on the Braves to cover the run line this season, it’s been a coin flip. Atlanta has covered the run line in 72 of their 152 games. They have been a better bet on the road, going 41-36 ATS, compared to 31-44 at home. The Braves have been favored in 121 games and have gone 54-67 ATS in those contests. Their average run differential in games they’ve covered the run line is 3.7 runs, compared to -3.3 in games they haven’t covered.
Chris Sale gets the start for the Braves today and comes in with a record of 17-3 and an ERA of 2.35. So far, he has made 28 starts, and opponents are batting .210 this season. Sale has made 18 quality starts and is averaging 11.42 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Sale picked up the win, going six innings and giving up one earned run on five hits. Before that, he had not allowed a run in two straight outings. Sale has been especially tough at home, going 10-0 with a 2.75 ERA compared to 7-3 with a 2.42 ERA on the road.
When the Reds win, they do so by an average of 3.8 runs per game, but when they lose, they lose by an average of 3.3 runs. Their overall run line record is 83-70, and they are 47-29 against the run line on the road. As the underdog, they are 56-31 vs. the run line, compared to 27-39 as the favorite.
Julian Aguiar is getting the start for the Reds today vs. the Braves and comes into the game with a record of 2-0. His ERA for the season is 4.88, along with a WHIP of 1.23. So far, Aguiar has made six starts and has pitched 27 2/3 innings. Aguiar has turned in two quality starts this year and is averaging 4.88 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, he picked up the win, going 6 1/3 innings and giving up three earned runs. Before that, he had two straight outings in which he didn’t give up an earned run. Aguiar has finished with a no-decision in three straight starts.
Braves vs. Reds Pick: Reds ML +173
With the Reds coming in at +173 on the money line, this is a great payout for a team that we have winning this game. Our predicted final score is 5-4 in favor of the Reds, and with the payout, we would recommend sticking with a straight-up win for the Reds.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Chris Sale does have a better chance of picking up a win than Julian Aguiar, but Sale is projected to go five innings, while Aguiar is only projected to go three. Sale is also projected to finish with six strikeouts, compared to Aguiar with four.
