Braves vs Nationals Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 11th
Max Fried and the Braves will face off against Jake Irvin and the Nationals. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 PM ET. MASN will be televising this NL East matchup.
The Braves are 79-66 and are the betting favorite on the money line tonight, with their odds sitting at -172. The Nationals are 64-80 overall and have lost two straight. On the money line, the Nationals are +145, and the over/under line is currently 7.5 runs.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (-101) | Nationals 1.5 (-121)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Braves -172 | Nationals +145
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Braves vs. Nationals Prediction: Moneyline
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Nationals series came to an end with a 12-0 win for Atlanta. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -144 on the money line.
Reynaldo Lopez only went one inning for the Braves but didn’t give up a run or a hit. Jesse Chavez got the win out of the bullpen. MacKenzie Gore had a rough outing for the Nationals, giving up two earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.
Atlanta’s offense was led by Michael Harris II, who homered twice and went 3/6 at the plate. He scored two runs and drove in two RBIs. Sean Murphy and Ramon Laureano each had three hits and three RBIs.
With an overall record of 79-66, the Braves are 8.0 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they are 3rd in the NL East, sharing the same record as the Mets, who are in 2nd place in the division. Atlanta is 24-21 against other teams in the NL East this season.
Atlanta’s overall record has them in a good spot for a Wild Card berth, as they currently hold the 2nd Wild Card spot in the NL. The Braves have been good at home this year, going 40-31, and they are just above .500 at 39-35 on the road. So far, they have been a good favorite, going 67-50, and they are 12-16 as the underdog this year. The Braves’ series record is 26-16-5 this season.
With an overall record of 64-80, the Nationals are 22.5 games behind the Phillies for the NL East lead. Currently, they trail the Braves by 8.0 games for the 3rd spot in the division. The Nationals have dropped two straight games, and they are 3-7 across their last ten.
At home, the Nationals are 32-38 this season compared to 32-42 on the road. As the underdog, Washington is 52-68 this year and 12-12 when favored. So far, they have dropped four straight games at home, and their overall series record is 17-23-5.
Braves vs. Nationals Prediction: Over/Under
The Braves are on the road against the Nationals today. The O/U line for the game is set at 7.5 runs, which is lower than their combined run average of 8.1. This season, the Braves have played 105 games with O/U lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 72.4% of their games. Their O/U record for the season is 53-87, and when the line is set at 7.5 runs, they are 12-19.
Marcell Ozuna has been the Braves’ top hitter this season, as he is batting .305 with 37 home runs and 98 RBIs. His 98 RBIs are 7th in the league. Ozuna also comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is 2nd on the team with 25 homers but has a batting average of just .237.
Overall, the Braves are averaging 4.3 runs per game, but they are averaging 4.7 runs per game on the road. As a team, they are 4th in home runs and have the 9th slugging percentage in the league. Currently, they are 12th in batting average.
The Nationals are playing at home against the Braves today, with the over/under line set at 7.5 runs. Their games have averaged 9.0 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 70-69. The average over/under line in their games is 9 runs, and when the line has been set at 7.5 runs, they have gone over 16 times and under 9 times. Overall, 81.2% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 7.5 runs, and they have hit the over in their last three games.
As a team, the Nationals are averaging 4.2 runs per game, which is 21st in the league. They have been a little better on the road, averaging 4.3 runs per contest. Washington is 10th in team batting average at .244 and is 5th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game. However, they are just 25th in home runs and have a collective isolated power (ISO) of just .134.
CJ Abrams has been the Nationals’ top power threat this season, with 19 homers, and is also leading the team with 64 RBIs. Luis Garcia Jr. is batting .284 this season and is 2nd on the team with 63 runs batted in. Over his last five games, Andres Chaparro is hitting .316 with two homers, while José Tena is 8/21 in his last five games.
Braves vs. Nationals Prediction: Spread
When the Braves are on the road, they have a run line record of 40-34, and their average run margin is +1.1 runs per game. They have covered the run line in two straight road games and are 17-11 against the run line as an underdog this season.
Max Fried is coming off a strong outing vs. the Blue Jays, where he picked up the win. In that start, he went seven innings and gave up just one earned run. Looking back over his last four outings, Fried has given up three earned runs in three of those starts. Fried has made 25 starts this year and has a record of 9-8 with a 3.35 ERA. Opponents are batting .223 vs. Fried this year. He has turned in 13 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. Per nine innings, Fried is averaging 8.41 strikeouts and 3.11 walks.
Washington has been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 80-64 overall. They are 37-33 at home and 43-31 on the road. They have been an underdog in most of their games, going 69-51 on the run line. Their average run differential is -0.6 runs per game, but they have been outscored by an average of -3.8 runs in their losses.
Washington is sending Jake Irvin to the mound today vs. the Braves, and he will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Pirates. In that start, he took the loss, giving up six earned runs in five innings of work. Looking back over his last three starts, Irvin has given up at least four earned runs in each outing. Irvin’s record for the season is 9-12, and he has an ERA of 4.28. Opponents are batting .245 off the right-hander this season. Per nine innings, Irvin is averaging 2.33 walks compared to 7.59 strikeouts.
Braves vs. Nationals Pick: Nationals ML +145
Our predicted final score for this Braves and Nationals matchup is 5-4 in favor of the Nationals. With the Nationals’ money line sitting at +145, we see this as a great value pick.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Jake Irvin actually has better odds to pick up a win than Max Fried, and we have Irvin finishing with five strikeouts compared to Fried with four.
