Braves vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Sunday, September 22nd
At 1:40 PM ET, the Braves and Marlins face off in an NL East matchup. This one is taking place at loanDepot Park in Miami, and the Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -196. The Marlins are +164 on the money line, and the over/under line is currently 8.5 runs.
Grant Holmes is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Darren McCaughan. The Braves are 3rd in the NL East with a record of 84-71, while the Marlins are 57-98 and are 5th in the division. MLBN is carrying this one on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (-118) | Marlins 1.5 (-104)
- Total: 8.5
- MoneyLine: Braves -196 | Marlins +164
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
The most recent game o of this Braves vs Marlins series came right down to the end, as the Marlins rallied late but still fell short with the Braves winning 6-2 on the road. Heading into the game, the Braves were favored at -275 on the money line.
Atlanta got to Marlins starter Adam Oller, scoring four of their six runs in the first two innings. Oller lasted just 5 2/3 innings and gave up two earned runs on eight hits. As for the Braves, Max Fried put together a good outing, getting the win after going six innings and giving up just one earned run.
Offensively, the Braves were led by Matt Olson and Gio Urshela, as they were the only two Braves hitters to have more than one hit. Olson, Jorge Soler, and Marcell Ozuna each homered for Atlanta.
Atlanta is 84-71 overall and trails the Phillies by eight games in the NL East. The Braves are 25-23 against other teams in the NL East. Currently, they are two games behind the Mets for the second spot in the NL East.
So far, the Braves have been even on the road, going 42-38. They are 31 games above .500 at home. As the favorite, the Braves are 71-53 this year and 13-18 as the underdog. Atlanta’s overall series record is 26-17-7, and they are currently tied in their series vs. the Marlins.
Miami is 5th in the NL East with a record of 57-98, putting them 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, they are 18-33 against other teams in the NL East. So far, they have struggled at home, going 30-50, and they are just under .500 on the road at 27-48.
The Marlins have dropped three straight series and have an overall series record of 11-28-9. As the underdog, Miami is 53-84 this year compared to just 4-14 as the favorite. They will be looking to pick up a win today, as they have gone just 3-7 over their last 10 games.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
When the Braves are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, which is higher than their combined run average of 8.2. This season, the over/under record for Atlanta games is 58-92, and when the line is set at 8.5 runs, the record is 14-27. Overall, 30.3% of their games have had higher over/under lines than 8.5 runs, and the under has hit in their last two games.
Marcell Ozuna comes into today’s game as the Braves’ top hitter, with a batting average of .310 to go along with a team-high 38 home runs and 101 RBIs. He is currently on a five-game hitting streak. Matt Olson is also a big power threat in the lineup, as he has 29 homers this season and is batting .243.
As a team, the Braves are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. Over their last six games, Michael Harris II and Matt Olson have both gone deep four times, with Harris batting .464 in that stretch and Olson hitting .368.
When the Miami Marlins are at home, the over/under line is set at 8.5 runs, and their games have averaged 9.1 runs per game this season. Overall, the Marlins’ over/under record is 82-68, and their games have had an average line of 8 runs. When the line is set at 8.5 runs, their record is 28-25. So far this season, 32 of their games have had over/under lines set at 8.5 runs, which accounts for 20.6% of their games. In their last two games, the under has hit.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this season, which is the worst in the majors. They have been slightly better at home, putting up 4.2 runs per game. Miami’s offense is also last in the league in walks and have the 25th ranked OPS in the league. Miami’s team batting average is .241, which is 13th in the league.
Jake Burger has been one of the few bright spots in the Marlins lineup this season, as he leads the team with 27 homers and 68 RBIs, while batting .246. Burger has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 10/33 in his last nine games with two homers. Otto Lopez has also gone 10/34 in his last nine games, including two homers.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
When it comes to the run line, the Braves have been a better bet on the road this season, going 43-37 compared to 31-44 at home. Overall, they have a run differential of +0.6 runs per game, but that number jumps to +1.2 on the road. As the favorite, they are 56-68 on the run line, while they are 18-13 as the underdog. In their wins, they are winning by an average of 3.8 runs per game, while in their losses, they are losing by an average of 3.3 runs per game.
Right-hander Grant Holmes is getting the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. He has made 23 appearances this season to go along with five starts. Holmes’ record for the season is 2-1, and he has an ERA of 3.83. Opponents are batting .264 off Holmes this season, and his WHIP is 1.28. The last time he took the mound was on September 17th vs. the Reds, where he went four innings, giving up two earned runs, and finished with a no-decision. In that outing, he gave up two homers. Overall, he has allowed five homers this year.
The Marlins have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 72-83 overall. They have been a better bet on the road, going 38-37, compared to 34-46 at home. Miami has been a good bet as an underdog, going 70-67 on the run line, but have struggled as the favorite, going just 2-16. Their average run margin on the season is -1.4 runs per game.
Miami is sending right-hander Darren McCaughan to the mound today vs. the Braves. He has made four starts and nine appearances this season and has a record of 0-0 with a 7.64 ERA. McCaughan has not picked up a win or a loss in any of his outings this year. In his most recent outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up five earned runs in 3 2/3 innings of work vs. the Dodgers. McCaughan has allowed at least one homer in each of his last three outings. His WHIP for the season is 1.82, and opponents are batting .322 vs. the right-hander.
Braves vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +164
With the Marlins sitting at +164 on the money line, that is the route we recommend going in this one. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins, giving us a lot of value in taking them to win straight up.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Darren McCaughan finishing with four strikeouts, and he is coming in with the third lowest strikeout projection among starters. As for Grant Holmes, he is projected to finish with five K’s, which has him in the middle of the pack.
