Braves vs Marlins Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 21st
The Braves and Marlins are set to face off in an NL East matchup at 4:10 PM ET at loanDepot Park in Miami. The Braves are the heavy favorite on the money line, with their odds sitting at -265 compared to the Marlins at +219. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Max Fried is starting for the Braves, and he is facing off against Adam Oller for the Marlins. Fried has a record of 83-71, while the Marlins are 57-97 and are 5th in the NL East. BSFL is carrying this game on TV.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Braves -1.5 (-162) | Marlins 1.5 (+133)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: Braves -265 | Marlins +219
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Moneyline
Miami picked up a 4-3 win over the Braves in the most recent game of this series. The Marlins had a three-run 1st inning but didn’t score another run until putting up one in the 5th. As for the Braves, they scored one run in the 3rd and added two more in the 6th.
Valente Bellozo started for the Marlins and picked up the win, going 5 1/3 innings and giving up three runs. Jesus Tinoco got the save. Charlie Morton got the start for the Braves and took the loss, going six innings and giving up four earned runs.
Jake Burger and Kyle Stowers each had two hits and an RBI for Miami’s offense. Ramon Laureano also homered for the Marlins. For the Braves, Marcell Ozuna went 2/4 with two RBIs.
With an overall record of 83-71, the Braves are 3rd in the NL East and trail the Phillies by nine games. So far, they have gone 24-23 in divisional matchups. The Braves dropped the first game of this series vs. the Marlins and are 26-17-7 in series this year.
At home, the Braves have gone 42-33 this year compared to 41-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Braves are 70-53 and 13-18 as the underdog. Looking at their recent performance, the Braves are 5-5 over their last 10 games.
Miami is 5th in the NL East, 35 games behind the Phillies for the division lead. Overall, the Marlins are 57-97 and have gone just 18-32 against other teams in the NL East. This year, they are 4-14 when favored and 53-83 as the underdog.
At home, the Marlins are 30-49 compared to 27-48 on the road. Miami has dropped three straight series, and their overall series record is 11-28-9. Over the last ten games, the Marlins are 3-7.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Over/Under
Atlanta’s games have averaged 8.2 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 58-91. When the line is set at 8 runs, they have gone over 9 times, under 16 times, and pushed once. Overall, 56.5% of their games have had higher lines than 8 runs, while 26.6% have had lower lines.
Marcell Ozuna has been one of the league’s top power hitters this season, as his 38 homers are 5th in the MLB and the best mark on the Braves. He is also 9th in the league with 101 RBIs. Ozuna comes into the game on a four-game hitting streak. Over his last seven games, Michael Harris II has gone 11/31 with four homers and seven RBIs.
Overall, the Braves are 4th in home runs and are averaging 4.4 runs per game. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season, averaging 4.8 runs per game. As a team, the Braves are batting .242, which is 11th in the MLB.
Today’s over/under line for the Miami Marlins game against the Atlanta Braves is set at 8 runs. The Marlins have played in 84 games this season with over/under lines set above 8 runs, accounting for 54.5% of their games. Their games have averaged a combined 9.1 runs per game this season, and their over/under record is 82-67 overall.
Over the past nine games, Jake Burger has been swinging a hot bat for the Marlins, going 10/33 with two homers and seven RBIs. For the season, Burger is batting .245 with a team-high 27 homers and 68 RBIs. Jesús Sánchez is also near the top of the Marlins’ home run and RBI leaderboards, with 17 homers and 62 RBIs this season.
As a team, the Marlins are averaging just 3.8 runs per game, which is 28th in the league. They have been even worse on the road, averaging only 3.4 runs per contest. Overall, they are batting .242, which is 11th in the league, and are 25th in home runs. Miami’s team on-base percentage of .297 is 18th in the league, and they are also near the bottom of the league in walks and OPS.
Braves vs. Marlins Prediction: Spread
When the Braves are the favorite, they are 55-68 against the run line. When they are the underdog, they are 18-13. Their average run differential is +0.5 runs per game, and they are 73-81 against the run line overall. On the road, they are 42-37 against the run line, with an average scoring margin of +1.2 runs per game.
Left-hander Max Fried gets the start for the Braves today as he faces the Marlins on the road. Fried has made 27 starts this season and has a record of 9-10 with a 3.50 ERA. Looking at his overall numbers, Fried has a WHIP of 1.20 and opponents are batting .227 this season. In his 27 appearances, Fried has turned in 14 quality starts, two complete games, and one shutout. His ERA on the road is 5.63 compared to 4.73 at home. Fried most recently faced the Dodgers, where he gave up three earned runs in six innings of work.
When betting the run line on the Marlins, it’s best to take them as the underdog, as they are 70-66 on the run line in those games. They are just 2-16 as the favorite. Their average run margin in losses is -3.9, compared to +2.8 in wins. They are 34-45 on the run line at home and 38-37 on the road.
Adam Oller gets the start for the Marlins today and will be looking to bounce back from a rough outing vs. the Nationals. In that start, which came on September 15th, he took the loss, going 5 innings and giving up 3 earned runs on 6 hits. Oller gave up 2 homers in that outing. Overall, he has made 6 starts and has a record of 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. Oller’s WHIP for the season is 1.42, and opponents are batting .223 vs. the right-hander. Per nine innings, Oller has 7.39 strikeouts and 5.12 walks.
Braves vs. Marlins Pick: Marlins ML +219
With the Marlins at +219, we see this as a great value pick, as our predicted score is 6-5 in favor of the Marlins. If you’re looking for a payout, we would recommend taking the Marlins on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, our projections have Adam Oller finishing with seven strikeouts, and he’s a good option if you’re looking at some player props. As for Max Fried, we have him ending the game with five K’s.
