Astros vs Reds Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 2nd
Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros on Monday, and they are looking to extend their five-game winning streak. They are 75-62 this season and Verlander is 15-5 with a 2.77 ERA. The Reds are 4th in the NL Central with a record of 65-73 and they will be starting Julian Aguiar.
Monday’s forecast in Cincinnati calls for clear skies and temperatures in the low 70s. The over/under line is currently 9.5 runs, and the Astros are the heavy favorite on the money line at -165. Cincinnati is at +140, and first pitch from Great American Ball Park is set for 4:10 PM ET.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Astros -1.5 (-106) | Reds 1.5 (-115)
- Total: 9.5
- MoneyLine: Astros -165 | Reds +140
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Astros vs. Reds Prediction: Moneyline
Heading into their last game vs. the Royals, the Astros closed out the series with a 7-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -158. Offensively, the Astros scored their seven runs on nine hits and only hit three home runs.
Ronel Blanco got the start for the Astros, going five innings, and didn’t give up a run. He only issued three hits and issued just one walk. Yordan Alvarez was hot at the plate, going 2/4 with two homers and two RBIs.
Houston is currently on a five-game winning streak, and they lead the AL West by six games over the Mariners. So far, they are 21-18 in divisional matchups. The Astros are 75-62 overall, and they have gone 4-0 in the last four games of their previous series vs. the Royals.
At home, the Astros are 39-29 this year, and they are just over .500 at 36-33 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 57-43 this year and 18-19 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 24-18-2 this year, and they will open their series vs. the Reds on the road today.
Cincinnati is coming off a game in which they needed extra innings to pick up the 4-3 win over the Brewers. This was especially big, as it was the Reds’ third straight win, all of which came against the Brewers. Leading up to the game, the Reds were the slight favorite at +111 on the money line.
Brandon Williamson got the start for the Reds, going 3 1/3 innings, and giving up two runs on four hits. He only had one strikeout in the outing and took the no-decision. Jake Fraley hit a homer for the Reds but went just 1/3. Jonathan India scored the team’s other run, going 3/4 at the plate.
Cincinnati is 65-73 overall, putting them 4th in the NL Central, 15.5 games behind the Brewers for the division lead. The Reds are 20-23 against other teams in the NL Central. They are hosting the Astros today with an overall series record of 16-25-3, and they have dropped three straight series.
At home, the Reds are 33-39 this year compared to 32-34 on the road. As the favorite, Cincinnati has gone 33-33 this year and 32-40 as the underdog. Looking at their recent performance, the Reds are just 3-7 over their last ten games.
Astros vs. Reds Prediction: Over/Under
Today’s over/under line of 9.5 runs for the Houston Astros’ game against the Cincinnati Reds is slightly higher than their season average of 8.5 runs per game. The Astros have played in just six games with a line set at 9.5 runs, going 2-4 in those contests. Overall, 86.9% of their games this season have had lower over/under lines than today’s total.
Yordan Alvarez has been a major power threat for the Astros this season, as his 30 homers are the best mark on the team and 7th best in the league. Alvarez is also hitting .314 for the season and has gone 11/23 over his last six games, including five home runs. Catcher Yainer Diaz has also been a big power threat for the Astros, as his 75 RBIs are the best mark on the team, and he has 16 homers.
As a team, the Astros are 7th in home runs and have the league’s 3rd best team batting average at .261. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game and have been even better at home, where they are averaging 4.7 runs per contest.
The Cincinnati Reds have an over/under record of 65-66 this season, and their games have averaged 8.8 runs per game. Their games have had an average over/under line of 9 runs, but when the line has been set at 9.5 runs, the over has hit at a 21-11 clip. Only 5.8% of their games have had over/under lines set at 9.5 runs or higher, and their games have gone under the line in 71% of their contests.
Elly De La Cruz has been the Reds’ most consistent power threat this season, as his 22 homers is the best mark on the team and 15th in the league. He is also 2nd on the team with 61 RBIs and is batting .263. Spencer Steer has also been a big run producer for the Reds, as his 85 RBIs is 11th in the MLB and the best mark on the team. However, he is hitting just .236.
As a team, the Reds are averaging 4.5 runs per game and are 9th in the league in home runs. However, they are batting just .232 and have a collective on-base percentage of .306. Over his last six games, Tyler Stephenson is batting .364 with a home run and has scored five runs.
Astros vs. Reds Prediction: Spread
When the Astros are favored, they are just 46-54 on the run line, but when they are underdogs, they are 25-12. Their average run margin in winning games is 3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1. They are 39-30 on the run line on the road this season, and their current run line win streak is at 2 games.
Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Reds on the road. He has made 12 starts this season and has a record of 3-4 with an ERA of 4.16. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.22. Looking back at his last outing, Verlander took the loss, giving up four earned runs in five innings of work. He has given up at least two home runs in three of his last four outings. Per nine innings, Verlander is averaging 8.06 strikeouts and just 2.55 walks. This season, he has made five quality starts.
The Reds have been a solid run line team this season, going 73-65 overall. They are 32-40 against the run line at home, where they have a run differential of -0.4 runs per game. Cincinnati has been a much better bet on the run line on the road, going 41-25. Their average run differential in winning games is +3.8 runs per game, while it is -3.2 runs per game in losses.
Julian Aguiar has started the season with a win and a no-decision, and he’ll be making his first start at home today against the Astros. In his first start of the season, he went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs on 3 hits. Then, in his last outing, he went 4 innings and struck out 10, but gave up 6 runs on 1 home run.
Astros vs. Reds Pick: Reds ML +140
Given the payout of +140 for a Reds win, that is the route we recommend going for this one. Our predicted final score is 6-5 in favor of the Reds, giving us some room to take them on the money line.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Justin Verlander is projected to finish with seven strikeouts, which is good for ninth among starters. As for Julian Aguiar, he is projected to finish with six strikeouts, which is good for sixth.
