Astros vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Wednesday, September 18th
Wednesday’s interleague matchup between the Astros and Padres is set for 6:40 PM ET from PETCO Park in San Diego, CA. The Padres are 86-66 and are 2nd in the NL West, while the Astros are 1st in the AL West with a record of 82-69.
Currently, the Astros are favored on the money line, and the over/under line is at 7 runs. Lefty Framber Valdez is starting for the Astros, while the Padres are going with Dylan Cease.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Astros -1.5 (+154) | Padres 1.5 (-189)
- Total: 7
- MoneyLine: Astros -112 | Padres -106
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
It was a low-scoring game in the most recent game of this Astros vs Padres series. Houston went into the matchup as +101 underdogs and squeaked out a 4-3 win. The Astros had a two-run 4th inning and scored the game’s go-ahead run in the 8th. As for the Padres, they scored their only run in the 6th and tied the game in the 8th.
Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman each had two hits and an RBI for the Astros. Manny Machado did the same for the Padres. Fernando Tatis Jr. went 2/5 with a stolen base.
Hunter Brown pitched well for the Astros in this one, going six innings and striking out three without giving up a run. He picked up a win in the game, while Josh Hader got the save. Adrian Morejon had a rough outing for the Padres, taking the loss.
Houston leads the AL West by five games over the Mariners, and they are 82-69 overall. The Astros will be on the road today vs. the Padres, and they are 40-37 on the road this season. Houston has gone 25-20 against other teams in the AL West.
As the favorite, the Astros are 63-49 this year and 19-20 as the underdog. Their overall series record is 26-20-2 heading into today’s matchup. The Astros have won four straight games as the favorite and are 6-4 in their last 10 games overall.
With an overall record of 86-66, the Padres are 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the NL West lead. The Padres are 24-22 against other NL West teams this season. San Diego is hosting the Astros today and are 41-36 at home this year.
This season, the Padres have been good on the road, putting together a record of 45-30. As the favorite, the Padres are 56-42 and 30-24 when they are the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 29-15-6, and they are currently tied in their series vs. the Astros.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
With an average combined run average of 8.6, the Houston Astros have an over/under record of 61-85 this season. Their games have averaged an over/under line of 9 runs, but when the line has been set at 7 runs, the over/under record is just 1-4. The Astros have played in 146 games with over/under lines set higher than 7 runs, which accounts for 96.7% of their games this season. Their current under streak is at 2 games.
Yordan Alvarez comes into the game as the Astros’ top hitter this season, batting .307 with 34 homers and 85 RBIs. However, he has struggled of late, going just 4/23 in his last six games. Jose Altuve is also having a good season, batting .301 with 19 homers and 63 RBIs. Alex Bregman has 23 homers this season but is batting just .256.
As a team, the Astros are 3rd in batting average and are 6th in on-base percentage. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league. Overall, they are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 12th in the league. Houston is also one of the best teams in terms of avoiding strikeouts.
San Diego’s combined run average of 8.9 is well above today’s O/U line of 7, and the Padres have gone over the total in 80 of their 149 games this season. When the O/U line has been set at 7 runs, San Diego has gone over in 11 of 16 games. The under has hit in each of the Padres’ last three games.
Over the past seven games, Luis Arraez has gone 13/32 for the Padres, and for the season, he is batting .320 with four homers. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill are the Padres’ top power threats, as Machado leads the team with 27 homers and is 8th in the league with 101 RBIs. Merrill is 2nd on the team with 86 RBIs and has gone deep 24 times this season.
San Diego comes into the game as the league’s best hitting team, with a team batting average of .265. They are also near the top of the league in home runs and have the best slugging percentage in the league. Overall, the Padres are 8th in the league in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
When the Astros are on the road, they are 43-34 against the run line, with an average run margin of 0.2 runs per game. They have covered the run line in four straight games and are 26-13 against the run line as an underdog this season.
Framber Valdez is looking to build off his last outing, where he gave up just one earned run in 6 1/3 innings of work. In that outing, he didn’t give up a homer, but in the three outings before that, he had given up a homer in each. Valdez has a record of 14-6 and an ERA of 2.91. This year, opponents are batting .215 off the left-hander. Valdez has made 16 quality starts this year and one complete game. His ERA at home is 2.85 compared to 3.98 on the road.
San Diego has a run line record of 77-75 this season, with a run line record of 47-28 on the road. The Padres’ average run margin this season is +0.6 runs per game, and they are 30-47 against the run line at home. San Diego’s average run margin in winning games is +3.7 runs per game, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.5 runs per game.
Right-hander Dylan Cease gets the start for the Padres today as he faces the Astros at home. Cease has made 31 starts this season and has a record of 13-11 with a 3.58 ERA. In his last outing, Cease pitched six shutout innings, picking up the win and tallying 10 strikeouts. He has one complete game shutout this year and 15 quality starts. Cease’s ERA at home is 3.46, and he has a record of 5-7 at home compared to 8-4 on the road with a 4.55 ERA.
Astros vs. Padres Pick: Astros ML -112
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Padres matchup is for the Astros to pick up a 6-5 road win. With the Astros being on the road, you can get them on the money line at -112, which is the way we recommend playing this one.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Framber Valdez going 5 innings and finishing with five strikeouts. As for Dylan Cease, we have him going 5 innings as well and finishing with four K’s.
