Astros vs Padres Prediction & MLB Odds For Monday, September 16th
The Astros and Padres will face off in an interleague matchup at 9:40 PM ET on Monday. This one is being played at PETCO Park in San Diego, and the Astros are 4-0 in their last four games, while the Padres have won three straight and are 85-65 overall. Houston is 1st in the AL West, while the Padres are 2nd in the NL West.
Yu Darvish will start for the Padres, and he is facing off against Spencer Arrighetti for the Astros. Darvish and the Padres are favored on the money line, with the odds sitting at -139 compared to the Astros at +118. The over/under line is currently at 8 runs.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Astros 1.5 (-183) | Padres -1.5 (+150)
- Total: 8
- MoneyLine: Astros +118 | Padres -139
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Moneyline
Houston closed out their series vs. the Angels with a 6-4 win on the road. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -202. Offensively, the Astros scored their six runs on eight hits and only hit one home run. It was Jason Heyward going 3/3 with a homer and two RBIs.
Ronel Blanco got the start for the Astros, going six innings, and didn’t give up a run. He also issued just two walks and struck out five Angels batters. Houston’s bullpen nearly blew the lead, as the Angels scored three runs in the 9th, but Josh Hader was able to close things out and pick up the save.
Houston is currently 81-68 overall and leads the AL West by 4.5 games over the Mariners. The Astros head into today’s game vs. the Padres having won four straight games, and they closed out their series vs. the Angels with three straight wins. So far, they are 25-20 in divisional games.
At home, the Astros are 42-32 this season, and they are above .500 at 39-36 on the road. As the underdog, the Astros are 18-19 this season, and they are 63-49 as the favorite. Looking at their overall series record, the Astros are 26-20-2 this year.
The Padres’s offense was hot right out of the gates in their most recent game vs. the Giants, closing out their series with a 4-3 win. After allowing one run to the Giants in the 4th inning, the Padres responded with a run of their own and added another in the 6th. San Diego went on to close things out with Adrian Morejon picking up the save.
Martin Perez got the start for the Padres, going five innings and giving up just one run on two hits. He only had two strikeouts in the outing and got the win.
San Diego will take on the Astros at home with an overall record of 85-65, which has them 2nd in the NL West, 3.5 games behind the Dodgers for the division lead. The Padres have gone 24-22 against other teams in the NL West this season. They come into today’s game having won three straight, and they closed out their series vs. the Giants with three straight wins.
At home, the Padres are 40-35 this season and have gone 45-30 on the road. As the favorite, the Padres are 55-41 this year and 30-24 as the underdog. San Diego’s overall series record is 29-15-6.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Over/Under
When the Astros are on the road, the over/under line is set at 8 runs, which is slightly below their season average of 8.6 runs per game. Overall, Houston has gone over the total in 61.1% of their games this season, and when the line is set at 8 runs, they have a record of 13-13-2.
Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as he is 7th in the league with 34 homers, and his 84 RBIs are the best mark on the team. Alvarez has also been one of the team’s most consistent hitters, coming into the game with a batting average of .308. However, he has gone just 6/25 in his last six games, with two homers.
Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have also been key run producers for the Astros, with Altuve having 63 RBIs and Bregman sitting at 67. Bregman is 2nd on the team with 23 homers, but he is batting just .256 for the season.
San Diego is 12-15-1 when the over/under line is set at 8 runs this season. The Padres have played 59 games with higher over/under lines and 63 games with lower over/under lines, with the average line in their games this season set at 8 runs. The combined run average in their games this season is 9.0 runs, and the over/under record for the season is 80-67.
San Diego’s offense has been one of the best in the league this season, as they are the top hitting team in the league and are also 7th in runs scored at 4.8 runs per game. The Padres have been even better on the road, averaging 5.1 runs per contest. San Diego also has the best team slugging percentage in the league and are 5th in OPS. The Padres have been swinging the bats well of late, with Luis Arraez hitting .486 over his last eight games, and Fernando Tatis Jr. has gone 11/30 in his last eight games.
For the season, Manny Machado is leading the Padres in home runs (26) and RBIs (98), while batting .275. Jackson Merrill is 2nd on the team with 85 RBIs and comes in with a batting average of .288. Machado and Merrill are also 1st and 2nd in the team in home runs, respectively.
Astros vs. Padres Prediction: Spread
When it comes to the run line, the Astros have been a solid bet on the road this season, going 42-33. They’ve covered the run line in three straight road games and have a run line record of 77-72 overall. Their average run margin in winning games is +3.7, while their average run margin in losing games is -3.1.
Houston is sending Spencer Arrighetti to the mound today vs. the Padres, and he comes in with a record of 7-12 and an ERA of 4.72. Arrighetti has made 26 starts this year and has pitched well at times, finishing with a WHIP of 1.42. So far, he has turned in nine quality starts and is averaging 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings. In his last outing, Arrighetti finished with a no-decision, giving up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts.
Despite a losing record on the run line overall, the Padres have been a profitable bet on the run line on the road this season, going 47-28. They have been outscored by just 0.1 runs per game at home, but have a run line record of just 29-46 at Petco Park.
Yu Darvish will be looking to build off his last outing, where he picked up the win vs. the Mariners. In that outing, which came on September 10th, he went five innings and gave up two earned runs. Looking at his overall numbers, Darvish has made 13 starts, and his record for the season is 5-3. The right-hander has an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.14. Darvish has made three quality starts this season and is averaging 8.72 strikeouts per nine innings. For the year, he has given up nine homers and is averaging 2.39 walks per nine innings.
Astros vs. Padres Pick: Padres ML -139
Our pick for this Astros vs. Padres matchup is to take the Padres on the money line at -139. We actually have the Padres winning this one by a score of 6-5, meaning you could also look to take the over, as the line is currently sitting at 8 runs.
Looking at the starting pitchers, we have Yu Darvish finishing with six strikeouts, which is better than Spencer Arrighetti, who we have finishing with five. However, if you’re looking at some of the other stats, like Darvish’s projected earned runs, he is finishing with the fourth-worst projection among starters.
