Astros vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Saturday, September 28th

At 6:10 PM from Progressive Field in Cleveland, we have an Astros-Guardians matchup. Houston is currently favored on the money line, and the Astros have a record of 87-73, while the Guardians are 92-68.

Justin Verlander will start for the Astros, while the Guardians are sending Ben Lively to the mound. This game will be televised on BSGL.

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Astros -1.5 (+160) | Guardians 1.5 (-202)
• Total: 8
• MoneyLine: Astros -101 | Guardians -117

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline

Houston picked up a 5-2 road win over the Guardians in the most recent game of this series. The Astros offense got off to a fast start, scoring one run in the first and adding two more in the 2nd. On the other side, the Guardians got on the board with two runs in the 4th and added their final two runs in the 9th.

Ronel Blanco only went five innings for the Astros but didn’t give up a run and picked up the win. He finished the game with just three strikeouts and allowed two hits. Joey Cantillo struggled on the mound for the Guardians, giving up three earned runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work.

Zach Dezenzo and Victor Caratini each homered for the Astros, while Alex Bregman went 3/4 with two doubles. Kyle Tucker also had a three-hit game at the plate.

The Astros are 87-73 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. This season, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games. Houston is coming off a win in the first game of this series vs. the Guardians and have an overall series record of 27-22-2 this year.

At home, the Astros have gone 46-35 this year, and they are just above .500 at 41-38 on the road. As the favorite, the Astros are 67-51 this year, and they are 20-22 as the underdog. Heading into today’s game, the Astros have gone 6-4 over their last 10 games.

Cleveland heads into today’s matchup vs. the Astros with a record of 92-68, which has them leading the AL Central by six games over the Tigers. So far, they have gone 30-22 against other teams in the AL Central. The Guardians are the home team today, and they have been good at home this year, going 50-29.

The Guardians have gone 42-39 on the road this year. This season, the Guardians have really thrived as the favorite, going 64-35. As the underdog overall, Cleveland is 28-33 and 7-7 as the home underdog. Cleveland’s overall series record is 29-16-6.

Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under

When the Houston Astros are on the road, the over/under line has been set at 8 runs for their games. The combined run average in their games this season is 8.6 runs per game. Overall, the over/under record for Astros games this season is 65-89. When the over/under line is set at 8 runs, their record is 15-14-2. In 57.5% of their games, the over/under line has been set at more than 8 runs.

Yordan Alvarez has been the Astros’ top power threat this season, as his 35 homers is the best mark on the team and 8th best in the league. He also comes into the game as Houston’s current leader in RBIs, with 86. Alvarez is batting .308 for the season. Alex Bregman has also been swinging a hot bat of late, going 13/38 in his last 10 games with three homers and eight RBIs.

As a team, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game, which is 11th in the league. They are also one of the top home run hitting teams in the league and have the 3rd best team batting average in the league. Overall, they are 8th in the league in on-base percentage, slugging, and OPS.

Today’s over/under line of 8 runs is right in line with the Cleveland Guardians’ season average, as their games have averaged 8.3 runs per game. However, the under has been hitting at a high rate in their games recently, as the under has cashed in four straight games and in 13 of their last 21 games when the line has been set at 8 runs.

Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Guardians, going 10/27 in his last seven games, with three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .277 with a team-leading 38 homers and 115 RBIs. Josh Naylor is also a power threat in the lineup, as he is 2nd on the team with 31 homers and is batting .242.

For the season, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 10th in home runs. They have been a better offensive team at home, averaging 4.7 runs per game. Overall, they are batting .238, which is 11th in the league, and are 4th in the league in fewest strikeouts per game. As a team, they are 20th in walks and have the league’s worst BABIP.

Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread

When the Astros are on the road, they have a run line record of 44-35, and their average run margin is +0.2. They have an overall run line record of 82-78, with an average run margin of +0.6. As the favorite, they are 55-63 on the run line, while they are 27-15 as the underdog. In their wins, their average run margin is +3.7, while in their losses, it is -3.1.

Right-hander Justin Verlander gets the start for the Astros today as he faces the Guardians on the road. He has made 16 starts this season and has a record of 4-6 with an ERA of 5.55. Verlander’s WHIP for the season is 1.40. In his last outing, he finished with a no-decision, giving up six earned runs in 4 2/3 innings of work. Before that, he had won two straight starts. One issue for Verlander this year has been the long ball, as he has allowed 14 homers. His ERA at home is 9.44 compared to 4.6 on the road.

The Guardians have been a solid bet against the run line this season, going 82-78 overall. They have been slightly better on the road, going 43-38 compared to 39-40 at home. They have been a profitable underdog, going 36-25 against the run line.

Ben Lively gets the start for the Guardians today and comes in with a record of 13-9 and an ERA of 3.80. Looking at his overall numbers, Lively has made 28 starts and nine of them have been quality starts. His WHIP for the season is 1.22, and opponents are batting .233 off the right-hander this year. Lively has been much better at home, going 8-2 with a 3.96 ERA compared to 5-7 with a 3.95 ERA on the road. In his last outing, he gave up just one earned run in five innings of work. Before that, he had given up at least four earned runs in three straight starts.

Astros vs. Guardians Pick: Astros ML -101

We are in agreement with the money line pick for this one, and we have the Astros taking this game 5-4. With the payout for an Astros win sitting at -101, this is a great payout for a team that we have winning this one.

Looking at the starting pitchers, Justin Verlander is projected to finish with five strikeouts. As for Ben Lively, he is projected to finish with four strikeouts. Lively is also projected to go 6.1 innings, while Verlander is projected to go a full nine.