Astros vs Guardians Prediction & MLB Odds For Friday, September 27th
Joey Cantillo will start for the Guardians on Friday, as they look to extend their two-game winning streak vs. the Astros, who are 1st in the AL West. The game is being played at Progressive Field in Cleveland, and the Guardians are the slight money line favorite (-122).As for the Astros, they have a record of 86-73 and Ronel Blanco on the mound on Friday. Blanco will be facing a Guardians team that is 92-67 overall. The over/under line is currently 7.5 runs, and this one can be seen on MLBN.
Betting Odds & Lines for this Game
- Spread: Astros 1.5 (-205) | Guardians -1.5 (+171)
- Total: 7.5
- MoneyLine: Astros +103 | Guardians -122
All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)
Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Moneyline
Houston closed out their series vs. the Mariners with a tough 8-1 loss. Heading into the game, the Astros were the +132 underdog on the money line. Things started off well for the Astros, as they got on the board with a run in the 3rd inning but gave up the lead right away as the Mariners scored three times in the top of the 3rd.
Yusei Kikuchi put together a good start for the Astros, going six innings and not giving up a run. He also issued just one walk and struck out eight Mariners. However, the Astros’s offense really struggled after their 1st-inning run, and they didn’t score again. Overall, the Astros only had four hits and scored just one run.
Houston is 86-73 overall this season, and they lead the AL West by four games over the Mariners. The Astros lost two of three in their recent series vs. the Mariners. So far, they have gone 29-23 in divisional games.
The Astros have been slightly better at home this season, going 46-35 compared to 40-38 on the road. As the road underdog, Houston has put together a record of 16-16 this season. They are 27-22-2 in series this year.
Heading into their last game vs. the Reds, the Guardians closed out the series with a 5-2 win. Leading up to the game, they were the heavy favorite at -146. Offensively, the Guardians scored their five runs on eight hits and only hit two home runs. José Ramírez went 3/4 with a homer and three RBIs.
Hunter Gaddis got the start for the Guardians, going 1 2/3 innings, but didn’t pick up the win. Cleveland’s bullpen was excellent, though, as they didn’t give up a run after Gaddis exited the game. Emmanuel Clase picked up the save and struck out three in the 9th.
Cleveland is hosting the Astros today with an overall record of 92-67, which has them leading the AL Central by seven games. The Guardians have won two straight games and are 7-3 across their last 10. So far, they have gone 30-22 in divisional games.
At home, the Guardians are 50-28 this season compared to a 42-39 mark on the road. Cleveland has been favored in 98 games, going 64-34 in those games. They have also been good at home when favored, going 43-21. The Guardians’ overall series record is 29-16-6, and they picked up a 2-0 series win over the Reds most recently.
Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Over/Under
The over/under line for the Houston Astros’ game against the Cleveland Guardians is set at 7.5 runs. The combined run average in Astros games this season is 8.6 runs per game, and their over/under record is 65-88 overall. When the over/under line is set at 7.5 runs, their record is 11-19. In 76.7% of their games this season, the over/under line has been set higher than 7.5 runs.
Yordan Alvarez has been a huge power threat for the Astros this season, as his 35 home runs are the best mark on the team and 8th best in the league. He also comes into the game with the team’s top batting average of .308. Alex Bregman has also been swinging the bat well of late, going 7/22 in his last six games with three homers.
For the season, the Astros are averaging 4.6 runs per game and are one of the league’s top home run hitting teams. As a team, they are batting .261, which is the 3rd best mark in the league. Houston’s team on-base percentage is also among the league’s best, but they do come into the game with the 26th most walks in the league.
The Cleveland Guardians have played in 110 games this season with over/under lines higher than 7.5 runs, which accounts for 69.2% of their games. Their over/under record for the season is 68-80, and their average combined run average is 8.3 runs per game. The over/under line for today’s game against the Houston Astros is set at 7.5 runs, and the Guardians have gone 18-22 in games with that line. They are currently on a three-game under streak.
Jose Ramirez has been swinging a hot bat of late for the Guardians, going 10/24 in his last six games with three homers and eight RBIs. For the season, he is batting .279 with 38 home runs and a league-leading 115 RBIs. Josh Naylor is also a power threat for the Guardians, as he is 2nd on the team with 31 homers and is batting .243.
As a team, the Guardians are averaging 4.4 runs per game and are 9th in home runs. Their team batting average is just 16th in the league, and they have the worst BABIP in the league. Overall, they are 14th in team OPS and have been good at avoiding strikeouts this season.
Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: Spread
When the Astros win, they do so by an average of 3.7 runs per game, which is good for an 81-78 run line record. They are 26-15 against the run line as an underdog, but have lost two straight against the run line when favored.
Ronel Blanco has been pitching well for the Astros, as he comes into the game with a record of 12-6 and an ERA of 2.88. Blanco’s WHIP for the season is currently 1.10. In his 28 starts, Blanco has one complete game shutout and 14 quality starts. His most recent outing came on September 21st, where he picked up the win, going six innings and giving up two earned runs on seven hits. Blanco finished that game with nine strikeouts. Looking back further, he has not allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last four outings.
The Guardians have been a solid bet on the run line this season, going 82-77 overall. They are 39-39 against the run line at home and 43-38 on the road. Cleveland’s average run margin is +0.6 runs per game, and their average run margin in wins is +3.3 runs per game. They have covered the run line in three straight home games and are 46-52 against the run line as the favorite.
Left-hander Joey Cantillo gets the start for the Guardians today as he faces the Astros at home. Cantillo has made 7 starts and 1 of them was a quality start. His record for the season is 2-3, and he most recently pitched on September 19th, where he went 4 1/3 innings, giving up 1 earned run on 3 hits. Cantillo finished with a no-decision in that outing. Before that, he had won two straight starts. Opponents are batting .218 off Cantillo this season, and his ERA is 4.63, along with a WHIP of 1.20.
Astros vs. Guardians Pick: Astros ML +103
Our prediction for this Astros vs. Guardians matchup is to take the Astros on the money line, with the payout sitting at +103. We have the Astros winning this game by a score of 5-4. If you are looking for an over/under prediction, we would take the over, as the line is sitting at 7.5 runs, and we have a combined nine runs being scored.
Looking at the starting pitchers, Ronel Blanco has a higher chance of picking up a win than Joey Cantillo. Blanco is projected to finish with five strikeouts, while Cantillo is projected to finish with eight. In terms of team projections, the Astros are projected to finish with seven team strikeouts, which is the lowest in the league.
