NFL Hedge Bets Tips & Tricks
Hedging bets, especially the NFL hedge bets, can be extremely tricky. Upsets constantly occur, particularly in the division even with lopsided rosters in place from a talent perspective. As they say it is “any given Sunday.”
Below are some tips to consider in order to properly hedge your bets.
1. NFL Hedge Bets Risk/Reward Factor
The risk and reward for each game you select are important to consider. In general, picking multiple prohibited favorites yields poor value and one has the potential to not come to fission.
This is why I usually tend to do a ratio of 2 favorite bets for every upset you take. If one of your favorite games falls through, the combination of the other favorite game and the upset will cover the bet and even yield a little profit. If both favorite games fall through, the upset will hedge the bet. Lastly, if the underdog bet falls through the favorite bets will hedge.
The risk of losing all three bets is unlikely.
2. Past History/Injuries
Some other strategies for hedging your bets include looking at underdog teams that have matched up well against similar quarterbacks/teams in the past. If you are able to gage that well, you will be more likely to pick the upset games.
Injuries are also another important factor to look at when picking games. For example, if a key player on a team is questionable heading into a Sunday/Monday night game, it is wise to pick that game as one of your upsets because the other team will stand a better chance.
Even if the player does end up playing, he will most likely not be at full strength which will give the underdog a slight advantage. If his status however is already made apparent before placing the bet, it does not yield nearly as much value in most cases. That is why I tend to pick my upset games later either in the Sunday or Monday night games where that is the case.
3. Using Payer Stats as a Method of Hedging
Sometimes, betting on a player’s stats such as yards thrown/rushed is a good way to hedge a risky bet. Looking at the combination of how well or poorly a defense fairs against the run/pass is a good way to gauge the likelihood of it happening.
If a coach tends to be a pass first oriented offense, the likelihood of the quarterback throwing for more yards is obviously more likely due to the pure volume of attempts. The same goes for a run-first-oriented offense.
That is why it is a good hedge bet to do, especially when taking an underdog in another game.
At the end of the day, it is impossible to know exactly which bets to take and which ones not to, especially in the NFL. Past history has shown us that any team is capable of beating someone else from week to week which makes it hard to predict. That is why hedging is a great method to utilize if done properly.
