Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 18

The Chiefs and Broncos will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 4:25 ET at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver. The Chiefs are the heavy underdogs, with a point spread of +10.5 and money line odds of +412. The Broncos are favored by -578 and have a good chance of winning, based on the odds. This week 18 AFC West matchup is being televised on CBS, with the over/under line set at 39.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Broncos vs Chiefs

• We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 27 to 15
• Not only do we have the Broncos winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -10.5
• Look for this game to go over the line of 39.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

• Spread: Chiefs +10.5 | Broncos -10.5
• Total: 39.5
• MoneyLine: Chiefs +412 | Broncos -578

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: MoneyLine

Patrick Mahomes has been sharp over his last three games, culminating in a 320-yard, 3-touchdown performance in week 17 against the Steelers, where he posted a passer rating of 127. He has not thrown an interception in his last three outings. Kareem Hunt led the team in rushing in week 17 with 20 yards on 9 carries, while Travis Kelce had 8 receptions for 84 yards.

Heading into week 18, the Chiefs rank 11th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 24.1. They are 13th in total yards per game (342) and 10th in passing yards per game (231.8). Kansas City has been strong on 3rd down, leading the league with a 50% conversion rate, but they rank 24th in red zone conversion percentage.

Heading into week 18, the Broncos rank 19th in our offensive power rankings. They sit 10th in the NFL in scoring, averaging 24.2 points per game, but are 22nd in passing yards per game (205.6) and 17th in rushing yards per game (109.4). Denver is 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage (37.5%) and 20th in red zone conversion percentage (19.6%).

Bo Nix threw for 219 yards and 3 touchdowns on 24/31 passing in week 17, finishing with a passer rating of 114. Marvin Mims Jr. led the team with 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Jaleel McLaughlin had 69 rushing yards on 10 carries.

• Free MoneyLine Prediction Broncos -578 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Total

In their 29-10 win over the Steelers, the Chiefs’ defense allowed just 162 passing yards and forced five sacks. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 202 rushing yards on 31 attempts. Despite this, the Chiefs didn’t allow a single touchdown and came away with one interception.

On the passing side, the Chiefs held Pittsburgh to just 4.4 yards per attempt. They also forced the Steelers into a 50% third-down conversion rate, and even though they allowed 364 total yards, the Chiefs kept the Steelers out of the endzone for the most part.

In their 30-24 overtime loss to the Bengals, the Broncos’ defense gave up 384 passing yards on 79.6% completions. They struggled to get off the field, allowing the Bengals to convert on 53.8% of their third down chances. Despite this, the Broncos’ defense managed to sack the quarterback seven times in the game.

The Broncos’ defense also limited the Bengals to 115 rushing yards on 28 attempts, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt. Denver’s defense was able to generate pressure, winning the quarterback hit differential and recording more tackles for loss than their opponents.

• Free Total Prediction OVER 39.5 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Broncos Prediction: Spread

The Chiefs head into week 18 against the Broncos with a 15-1 record, putting them first in both the AFC and AFC West. They’ve won six straight, including a 29-10 win over the Steelers in week 17. Kansas City was favored by 1.5 points in that game and covered the spread, giving them three consecutive ATS wins. They are now 7-8-1 against the spread this season.

Our power rankings have the Chiefs 20th heading into week 18, but they have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the division. Their average scoring margin is +6.1 points per game, and their O/U record is 7-9, with their games averaging 42.1 points.

• Through their last three games, the Chiefs have a record of 3-0. Their strong play has also resulted in an ATS mark of 3-0 (last 3). They had an over/under mark of 1-2 in those same games.
• Through their last five road contests, the Chiefs offense has averaged 25 points per game while allowing an average of 18. Kansas City posted an overall record of 4-1 while going 2-3 ATS.

After a 31-13 win over the Colts in week 15, the Broncos have now dropped two straight, including a 30-24 loss to the Bengals in week 17. This puts Denver at 9-7, leaving them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. They have a 64.5% chance of making the playoffs, but they can’t win the division. In our power rankings, the Broncos are 18th heading into week 18.

Denver is 11-5 against the spread this season, with a +4.8 scoring margin. They are 7-0 ATS as favorites and 4-5 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in five straight games.

• The Broncos have posted a 3-0 record in their previous three games. In terms of betting, the team went 3-0 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
• In their last five games at home, the Broncos have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team’s offense averaged 20 points per game in these contests.

• Free Spread Prediction Broncos -10.5 (Bet Now)

Chiefs vs. Broncos Pick: Broncos -10.5

For this week 18 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos, we have the Broncos coming out on top by a score of 29-18. Even though the Chiefs are the better team, we have the Broncos pulling off the upset. With the point spread sitting at 10.5 in favor of the Chiefs, this is a great opportunity to take the Broncos to cover as home favorites.

As for the over/under line, we have a projected combined score of 47 points, making the over a great bet with the line sitting at just 39.5 points.