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Saints vs Buccaneers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 18

ByUSA Wager

The Saints and Buccaneers will face off on Sunday, January 5th at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Buccaneers are heavily favored with a money line of -931, while the Saints are at +608. The point spread is +13.5 in favor of the Buccaneers, and the over/under line is set at 43.5 points for this week 18 matchup at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL.

Prediction at a Glance for Buccaneers vs Saints

  • We have the Buccaneers winning this one by a score of 31 to 13
  • Not only do we have the Buccaneers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -13.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 43.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Saints +13.5 | Buccaneers -13.5
  • Total: 43.5
  • MoneyLine: Saints +608 | Buccaneers -931

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 18, the Saints rank 20th in our offensive power rankings, averaging 19.9 points per game, which is 22nd in the NFL. They are 20th in yards per game (321.9) and 24th in passing yards, with 203.8 per game. On the ground, they average 118.1 rushing yards per game, ranking 14th, on 26.6 attempts per game. New Orleans ranks 23rd in the league in 3rd-down conversions, with a 36% success rate, but they are 7th in red zone conversion percentage.

Spencer Rattler threw for 218 yards in week 17, going 20/36 with one touchdown and two interceptions. The Saints scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter but were shut out in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters. They struggled on 3rd down, converting only 1 of 10 attempts, and failed to score on their lone red zone trip. Juwan Johnson led the team with 66 receiving yards, and Rattler was also the leading rusher with 46 yards on 3 carries.

In our offensive power rankings, the Buccaneers sit 7th in the NFL, and they are 4th in points per game, averaging 29.7. They lead the league in 3rd-down conversion percentage and are 3rd in red zone attempts, but they rank 29th in red zone conversion percentage. Tampa Bay has also been strong early in games, leading the NFL in 1st-quarter scoring.

Baker Mayfield is coming off a stellar week 17 performance, throwing for 359 yards and 5 touchdowns with a passer rating of 152. Mike Evans had 8 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Bucky Irving rushed for 113 yards on 20 carries.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Buccaneers -931 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Total

In their 25-10 loss to the Raiders, the Saints’ defense allowed 232 passing yards, while holding Las Vegas to 20 completions. However, they struggled to stop the run, giving up 156 rushing yards on 38 attempts. The Saints’ defense allowed two passing touchdowns and struggled on third downs, allowing the Raiders to convert 55.6% of their third down attempts. They managed just one sack and came out on the negative end of the quarterback hit differential by five.

In their most recent game, the Buccaneers’ defense gave up just 39 rushing yards on 13 attempts to the Panthers. Despite allowing two passing touchdowns, the defense was tough against the pass, giving up just 165 yards through the air. Tampa Bay’s defense made life difficult for Carolina on third downs, allowing just a 22.2% conversion rate. They also recorded five sacks in their 48-14 win over the Panthers.

The Buccaneers’ defense was disruptive up front, winning the battles in both QB hits and tackles for loss. Even with the two passing touchdowns allowed, they held the Panthers to a 53.6% completion rate. Their performance on third downs was a key factor in the game, as Carolina was unable to sustain drives, finishing 4 of 18 on third down.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 43.5 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 18, the Saints sit at 5-11 and are on a three-game losing streak, including a 25-10 loss to the Raiders in week 17. New Orleans ranks 29th in our power rankings and has a -3.2 average scoring margin this season. Against the spread, they are 6-10, with a 5-7 record as underdogs and 1-3 as favorites.

The Saints’ O/U record is 7-9, with the under hitting in their last five games. Their matchups have averaged 43.1 points, while the O/U line has averaged 43.3 points.

  • Across New Orleans’s last three regular season games, their record sits at 0-3. Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 0-3.
  • In their last five games away from home, the Saints have a straight up record of 1-4 while going 0-5 vs. the spread. The team averaged 11 points per game in this stretch.

Heading into week 18, the Buccaneers hold a 9-7 record, putting them in first place in the NFC South. Our projections give them an 86.2% chance of winning the division and making the playoffs. Tampa Bay ranks 7th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +6.8 scoring margin and are 10-6 against the spread. Their O/U record is 11-5, with the over hitting in three straight games.

In week 17, the Bucs bounced back from a loss to the Cowboys with a 48-14 win over the Panthers. They easily covered the 10-point spread. The teams combined for 62 points, going over the 47.5-point line.

  • Over their last three games, the Buccaneers have gone 2-1 straight up. This also includes going 3-0 ATS and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Tampa Bay has played well in their previous five home games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 28 points per game while allowing 20. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.
  • Free Spread Prediction Buccaneers -13.5 (Bet Now)

Saints vs. Buccaneers Pick: Buccaneers -13.5

Our pick vs. the spread is to take Tampa Bay to cover as home favorites. Even though they are 13.5-point underdogs, we have them winning this week 30-14 over the Saints.

For the over/under, we have a line of 43.5 points, and we are leaning towards taking the over with a projected combined score of 44 points.

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