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Patriots vs Bills Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 16

ByUSA Wager

The Patriots are +652 on the money line as they face the Bills in a week 16 matchup at 4:25 ET on Sunday, December 22nd. Buffalo is heavily favored at -999 on the money line and -14 on the point spread. The over/under line is 46.5 points, and this AFC East matchup is being televised on CBS.

Prediction at a Glance for Bills vs Patriots

  • We have the Bills winning this one by a score of 31 to 13
  • Not only do we have the Bills winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -14
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 46.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Patriots +14 | Bills -14
  • Total: 46.5
  • MoneyLine: Patriots +652 | Bills -999

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: MoneyLine

Drake Maye has thrown for over 200 yards in each of his last three games, including a 202-yard performance in week 15 against the Cardinals, where he completed 19 of 23 passes and had one touchdown and one interception. In week 14, he threw for 238 yards, and in week 13, he had 222 yards. New England’s offense struggled on third down in week 15, failing to convert any of their six attempts, but they did score on two of their three red zone trips.

Heading into week 16, the Patriots rank 28th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 17, and they are 29th in total yards per game with 292.4. They rank 32nd in passing yards per game, with 173.1, but are 13th in rushing, averaging 119.3 yards per game. New England is 26th in our offensive power rankings.

Josh Allen has been on fire over his last three games, posting passer ratings of 122 in week 15, 117 in week 14, and 141 in week 13. In his most recent outing, he threw for 362 yards and 2 touchdowns without an interception against the Lions. Buffalo’s offensive line has kept Allen clean, not allowing a sack in these three games.

James Cook has been a key contributor in the run game, rushing for 105 yards and 2 touchdowns on 14 carries in week 15. Before that, he had 82 yards and 3 touchdowns in week 14 and 107 yards in week 13. Ty Johnson led the team in receiving in week 15, with 5 catches for 114 yards.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Bills -999 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Total

In their 30-17 loss to the Cardinals, the Patriots’ defense allowed Arizona to convert on 66.7% of their third down attempts. Despite not allowing a passing touchdown, they struggled to generate pressure, finishing with no sacks and losing both the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. The Patriots gave up 395 total yards, with 163 coming on the ground over 32 attempts. New England allowed Arizona to complete 78.1% of their passes for 232 yards.

Buffalo’s defense gave up 473 yards through the air in their 48-42 win over the Lions. Despite their strong offensive performance, the Bills’ defense allowed five passing touchdowns and 38 completions. The Lions had a good amount of success on third down, converting 46.2% of their chances.

The Bills’ defense did manage to get to the quarterback, recording three sacks and winning the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials. Detroit only ran the ball 15 times for 48 yards, and Buffalo’s defense limited them to 3.2 yards per attempt.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 46.5 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bills Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 16, the Patriots are on a four-game losing streak, including a 30-17 loss to the Cardinals in week 15. This dropped New England to 3-11, and they now rank 26th in our power rankings. They have a -7.1 scoring margin and are 5-8-1 against the spread, having been underdogs in all of their games so far.

With the Patriots out of playoff contention, their focus is on finishing the season strong. They are 2-6 on the road and 1-5 at home, and they have a 1-3 record in division games. New England is 9-5 on over/unders, with the over hitting in four straight games.

  • New England has put together a record of 0-3 in their last three games (regular season). Their record against the spread in this stretch is 1-2 to go along with an over-under mark of 3-0.
  • Across the Patriots last five road games, the team averaged 16 points per game while allowing 23. Their record vs the spread in these contests was 2-3, while going 1-4 straight-up.

Heading into week 16, the Bills hold a 11-3 record, putting them 1st in the AFC East and 2nd in our NFL power rankings. Buffalo has a +9.6 scoring margin and is 9-5 against the spread. They are 7-3 ATS as favorites and 2-2 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 9-5, with the over hitting in two straight games.

After a week 14 loss to the Rams, the Bills bounced back with a 48-42 win over the Lions in week 15. Buffalo was a 2.5-point underdog in that game, and the 90 combined points easily cleared the 55.5-point line. The Bills have a 100% chance of making the playoffs and winning the AFC East.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Buffalo have gone 3-0. In terms of betting, the team went 2-1 ATS in these matchups. Their over/under record in these matchups is 2-1.
  • In their last five home games, Buffalo has averaged 34 points per game while allowing 27. The team’s record in this stretch was 4-1 while going 4-1 vs. the spread.
  • Free Spread Prediction Bills -14 (Bet Now)

Patriots vs. Bills Pick: Bills -14

The point spread for this week 16 matchup between the Patriots and Bills is currently sitting at -14 in favor of the Patriots. However, we are going with the Bills to not only cover but win this game by a score of 30-13. With the Bills being 14-point home favorites, they are our pick vs. the spread.

For the over/under, with the line at 46.5 points, we have a projected combined score of 43 points, making the under our recommended pick.

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