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Cowboys vs Commanders Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 12

ByUSA Wager

On Sunday, November 24th, the Cowboys and Commanders will face off at 1:00 ET on FOX. The Commanders are the heavy favorite with a money line of -558, while the Cowboys’ money line sits at +408. The Commanders are favored by -10 in this week 12 matchup, and the over/under line is 44.5 points.

Prediction at a Glance for Commanders vs Cowboys

  • We have the Commanders winning this one by a score of 24 to 23
  • Even though we like the Commanders to win, our ATS pick is to take the Cowboys at +10
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 44.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Cowboys +10 | Commanders -10
  • Total: 44.5
  • MoneyLine: Cowboys +408 | Commanders -558

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 12, the Cowboys rank 28th in our offensive power rankings. They lead the NFL in passing attempts per game (41.1), averaging 240.6 passing yards (7th). On the ground, they rank 28th in rushing attempts and 31st in rushing yards per game, with just 81.7. Dallas is 23rd in points per game (18.7) and 20th in total yards (322.3), converting 35.6% of their third-down attempts, which ranks 23rd. Despite being 15th in red zone attempts, they have the 2nd-best red zone conversion rate at 64%.

Cooper Rush threw for 354 yards on 32 of 55 passing in week 11, with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. CeeDee Lamb led the team with 8 catches for 93 yards, while Rico Dowdle had 28 rushing yards on 10 carries. Dallas scored 10 points in the 2nd quarter but were shut out in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters in their 34-10 loss to the Texans.

Heading into week 12, the Commanders rank 3rd in our offensive power rankings, averaging 28 points per game (4th in the NFL) and 366.7 total yards per game (6th). Despite ranking 24th in pass attempts, they are 14th in passing yards, with Jayden Daniels throwing for 191 yards (22/32) in week 11. Washington is 8th in 3rd-down conversions, with a 43% success rate.

On the ground, the Commanders average 148 rushing yards per game, ranking 6th in the league, on 31.2 attempts per game. Brian Robinson Jr. led the team with 63 rushing yards on 16 carries in week 11, while Austin Ekeler had 8 catches for 89 yards.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Commanders -558 (Bet Now)

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction: Total

In their 34-10 loss to the Texans, the Cowboys’ defense allowed 141 rushing yards on just 25 attempts, giving up 5.6 yards per attempt on the ground. Despite this, they did force the Texans to convert on only 33.3% of their third down attempts. Dallas allowed 250 passing yards on 23 completions, but they did not give up any passing touchdowns. They also came up with one interception and held Houston to a 67.6% completion percentage.

Dallas struggled to generate consistent pressure, managing only one sack and losing the QB hit and tackles for loss differentials to the Texans. Overall, the Cowboys’ defense gave up 391 total yards in the game.

Washington’s defense allowed 228 rushing yards on 40 attempts in their 26-18 loss to the Eagles. Despite this, they did a good job against the pass, allowing just 206 yards through the air and not giving up any passing touchdowns. The Eagles finished with 434 total yards and averaged 5.7 yards per attempt on the ground.

Washington’s defense also recorded two sacks and held the Eagles to a 35.7% third-down conversion rate. However, their own offense struggled on third downs, allowing the Eagles to convert 56.2% of their third-down attempts.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 44.5 (Bet Now)

Cowboys vs. Commanders Prediction: Spread

Dallas heads into week 12 against Washington looking to snap a five-game losing streak. After a week 5 win over the Steelers, the Cowboys have dropped three straight, including a 34-10 home loss to the Texans in week 11. This leaves them at 3-7, with all three of their wins coming on the road. In our power rankings, Dallas is currently 32nd, and they have just a 0.1% chance of making the playoffs.

Against the spread, the Cowboys are 2-8 this season, with an average scoring margin of -10.6 points per game. They have failed to cover in five straight games, including two as favorites. Their O/U record is 6-4, with their games averaging 48 points per contest.

  • Over their last three regular season games, the Cowboys have gone 0-3 straight up. The team’s record vs the spread was just 0-3, in addition to an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • In their last five games away from home, the Cowboys have a straight up record of 3-2 while going 2-3 vs the spread. The team averaged 23 points per game in this stretch.

Washington heads into week 12 against the Cowboys looking to snap a two-game losing streak, which includes a 26-18 loss to the Eagles in week 11. The Commanders were 4.5-point underdogs in that game, and the combined 44 points fell short of the 49-point line. This loss dropped Washington to 7-4, putting them 2nd in the NFC East. Our projections give them an 87.7% chance of making the playoffs and a 15.1% chance of winning the division.

Washington ranks 13th in our NFL power rankings and has a +5.9 scoring margin this season. They are 7-3-1 against the spread, but have failed to cover in two straight games. The Commanders are 5-1 ATS as favorites and 2-2-1 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 7-4, with their games averaging 50.1 points this season.

  • Washington has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. In these games, they have a 2-1 record vs the spread and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Across their last five home contests, Washington has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-1-1. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 29 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Cowboys +10 (Bet Now)

Cowboys vs. Commanders Pick: Cowboys +10

Our projected score for this week 12 matchup between the Cowboys and Commanders is 23-22 in favor of Washington. However, with the point spread sitting at -10 in favor of the Cowboys, we are going with Dallas to cover as our best bet vs. the spread.

For the over/under, with the line at 44.5 points, we like the over, projecting these teams to finish with 45 combined points.

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