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Bengals vs Chargers Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

The Chargers are favored at -1.5 as they host the Bengals at 8:20 ET on Sunday, November 17th at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, CA. The game is being televised on NBC. The Chargers are the slight favorite on the money line at -120, and the over/under line is set at 46.5 points. Both teams are looking to improve their records in this week 11 AFC matchup.

Prediction at a Glance for Chargers vs Bengals

  • We have the Chargers winning this one by a score of 28 to 21
  • Not only do we have the Chargers winning straight-up, we have them covering the spread at -1.5
  • Look for this game to go over the line of 46.5 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Bengals +1.5 | Chargers -1.5
  • Total: 46.5
  • MoneyLine: Bengals +100 | Chargers -120

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction: MoneyLine

Joe Burrow has been on fire over the last three weeks, culminating in a 428-yard, 4-touchdown performance against the Ravens in week 10. He completed 34 of 56 passes without an interception. Before that, he threw for 251 yards and 5 touchdowns in week 9, following a 234-yard outing in week 8. Ja’Marr Chase had a monster game in week 10, catching 11 passes for 264 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Chase Brown led the Bengals in rushing in week 10, with 42 yards on 13 carries. Cincinnati ranks 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game, averaging 89.7 yards on 22.4 attempts. On 3rd down, they are 3rd in the league, converting 47.3% of their attempts.

Heading into week 11, the Chargers rank 13th in our offensive power rankings. They are 16th in the NFL in points per game (20.7) and 22nd in passing yards per game (196.4) despite ranking 30th in passing attempts. On the ground, they average 117.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 19th, with 29.6 rushing attempts per game (8th). The Chargers are 12th in the league in 3rd-down conversions, converting 39.8% of their attempts, and they rank 6th in red zone conversion percentage at 54.2%.

Justin Herbert has been on a roll, posting a passer rating of 123 in week 10, going 14/18 for 164 yards and a touchdown without an interception. He had a 125 rating in week 9 and a 111 rating in week 8. Ladd McConkey led the Chargers in receiving in week 10 with 52 yards on 2 catches, while Gus Edwards had 55 rushing yards on 10 carries.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Chargers -120 (Bet Now)

Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction: Total

In their 35-34 loss to the Ravens, the Bengals’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they failed to record a sack and lost the QB hit differential by -12. Baltimore’s passing attack put up 290 yards and completed 75.8% of their passes, with four of them going for touchdowns. Cincinnati’s defense also allowed the Ravens to convert on 58.3% of their third down attempts.

Despite the Bengals’ defense holding the Ravens to 99 yards rushing on 25 attempts, they still allowed 389 total yards in the game. The Bengals’ inability to pressure the quarterback was evident in their performance, as they allowed 8.8 yards per attempt in the passing game.

In their 27-17 win over the Titans, the Chargers’ defense allowed just 157 passing yards on 78.3% completions. However, they did give up two passing touchdowns. The Chargers’ defense came up with 7 sacks and had 7 more QB hits than the Titans. On the ground, the Chargers gave up 132 yards on just 21 attempts, with the Titans averaging 6.3 yards per attempt.

Even though they gave up some big plays in the running game, the Chargers’ pass rush was relentless, making things difficult for the Titans’ offense. The Chargers also held the Titans to a 33.3% conversion rate on third down, helping to keep Tennessee’s offense in check throughout the game.

  • Free Total Prediction OVER 46.5 (Bet Now)

Bengals vs. Chargers Prediction: Spread

Heading into week 11, the Bengals sit 15th in our NFL power rankings, with a 36.9% chance of making the playoffs. Cincinnati is 4-6 this season, including a 3-2 record on the road. In week 10, they narrowly lost to the Ravens, but managed to cover the spread as 6-point underdogs. The O/U line was 53 points, and the teams combined for 69. The over has hit in three straight Bengals games.

Against the spread, Cincinnati is 6-4, with two consecutive ATS wins. They are 4-3 as favorites and 2-1 as underdogs. Their average scoring margin is +0.8 points per game. In division play, the Bengals are 1-2, and they rank 3rd in the AFC North.

  • Cincinnati has put together a record of 1-2 in their last three games (regular season). They have held up well vs the spread in these matchups, going 2-1 as well as an over-under record of 3-0.
  • Across their last five road contests, Cincinnati has been good against the spread posting a mark of 5-0. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 26 points per game.

The Chargers have won three straight games, including a 27-17 victory over the Titans in week 10, bringing their record to 6-3. This streak includes a 17-point win over the Browns in week 9 and a 26-8 win over the Saints in week 8. Los Angeles currently sits 2nd in the AFC West and 6th in the conference standings, with an 88.2% chance of making the playoffs, according to our projections.

Heading into week 11, the Chargers rank 16th in our NFL power rankings. They have a +7.6 scoring margin and are 6-2-1 against the spread. They covered in each of their last three games, including a 10-point win over the Titans as 8.5-point favorites. Their O/U record is 2-7, with their games averaging 33.8 points per game.

  • Los Angeles will look to keep things rolling as they have put together a mark of 2-1 over their past three games. Against the spread, the team is 2-0-1 in these same games while going 1-2 on the over/under.
  • Across their last five home contests, Los Angeles has been good against the spread posting a mark of 3-2. Their overall mark in these games was 3-2, while averaging 20 points per game.
  • Free Spread Prediction Chargers -1.5 (Bet Now)

Bengals vs. Chargers Pick: Chargers Moneyline (-120)

For this week 11 matchup between the Bengals and Chargers, we have the Chargers coming out on top by a score of 28-23. Despite the Bengals being the slight 1.5-point favorites, we like the Chargers to not only win but cover the spread as 1.5-point home favorites.

As for an over/under pick, with the line sitting at 46.5 points, we are leaning towards taking the over, with our projections pointing to a combined score of 51 points.

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