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Falcons vs Broncos Prediction & NFL Odds For Week 11

ByUSA Wager

FOX will broadcast the week 11 non-conference matchup between the Falcons and Broncos, which is set to kick off at 4:05 ET. The Broncos are the favorite with a point spread of -2.5 and have money line odds of -134. The Falcons’ money line odds are +112, and the over/under line is set at 44 points. The game, being played at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, is an important one for both teams, although we need to add their current records.

Prediction at a Glance for Broncos vs Falcons

  • We have the Broncos winning this one by a score of 21 to 19
  • Even though we like the Broncos to win, our ATS pick is to take the Falcons at +2.5
  • We see this game finishing below the line of 44 points

Betting Odds & Lines for this Game

  • Spread: Falcons +2.5 | Broncos -2.5
  • Total: 44
  • MoneyLine: Falcons +112 | Broncos -134

All Odds are courtesy of (BetMGM | DraftKings | Fanduel | BetRivers)

Falcons vs. Broncos Prediction: MoneyLine

Heading into week 11, the Falcons sit 11th in our offensive power rankings. They are 11th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 23.8, and they rank 5th in passing yards per game with 250.4, on 33.5 attempts per game. On the ground, Atlanta is 16th in rushing attempts and 12th in rushing yards per game, with 124.7. They are 17th in the league in 3rd-down conversions and have a red zone conversion rate of 29%, which also ranks 17th.

Kirk Cousins threw for 306 yards in week 10, going 23/38 with one interception in the loss to the Saints. Bijan Robinson had 20 carries for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns, while Drake London led the team with 8 catches for 97 yards. Atlanta scored 10 points in the 3rd quarter but was shut out in the 1st and 4th quarters.

Heading into week 11, the Broncos rank 27th in our offensive power rankings. They are 19th in the NFL in points per game, averaging 19.7, and 24th in yards per game, with 303.7. Denver ranks 27th in passing yards per game (186.6) on 32.7 attempts per game, which is 12th in the league. On the ground, they are 20th in rushing yards per game, with 117.1, on 26.9 attempts per game. The Broncos have struggled to start games, ranking 27th in first-quarter scoring, and are 22nd in the NFL in 3rd-down conversion rate (35.6%).

In week 10, Bo Nix threw for 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, completing 22 of 30 passes against the Chiefs. Courtland Sutton led the team with 6 catches for 70 yards and a touchdown. Audric Estime had 53 rushing yards on 14 carries. Denver scored all 14 of their points in the 2nd quarter, failing to score in the 1st, 3rd, and 4th quarters. They converted 7 of 13 3rd-down attempts and went 1 for 2 in the red zone.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction Broncos -134 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Broncos Prediction: Total

In their 20-17 loss to the Saints, the Falcons’ defense allowed 269 passing yards on just 16 completions. They also gave up two passing touchdowns and allowed a 64% completion percentage. Despite this, Atlanta’s defense limited the Saints to 96 rushing yards on 27 attempts.

The Falcons’ defense struggled to generate pressure, as they didn’t record any sacks and lost the quarterback hit and tackles for loss differentials (both by -8 and -4, respectively). Additionally, opposing offenses are finding success on third downs, as the Falcons allowed the Saints to convert on 38.5% of their third down attempts.

In the Broncos’ 16-14 loss to the Chiefs, Denver’s defense allowed 243 passing yards on 28 completions. The Broncos defended the run well, as the Chiefs managed just 57 yards on 19 attempts. Despite this, the Broncos allowed Kansas City to convert 43.8% of their third down attempts.

Denver’s defense also came away with four sacks in the game and held the Chiefs to just one touchdown. However, the Broncos’ offense missed a game-winning field goal as time expired, costing them a chance to win despite a strong defensive effort.

  • Free MoneyLine Prediction UNDER 44 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Broncos Prediction: Spread

Atlanta heads into week 11 with a 6-4 record, putting them in first place in the NFC South. They are 4-1 in division games and 6-2 in conference play. Our projections give the Falcons an 86.9% chance of making the playoffs and an 85.5% chance of winning the division. In our power rankings, they sit 14th heading into this week.

Against the spread, the Falcons are 5-5, with an average scoring margin of +0.2 points per game. Their O/U record is 4-6, with the under hitting in their last two games. Their games have averaged 47.4 points, while the O/U line has averaged 46.6.

  • Spanning across their last three games, Atlanta have gone 2-1. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 1-2.
  • Atlanta has played well in their previous 5 road games, going 3-2 straight up. In this stretch, they averaged 25 points per game while allowing 27. The team also performed well vs the spread at 3-2.

After a week 8 win over the Panthers, the Broncos have now dropped two straight, including a 16-14 loss to the Chiefs in week 10. This leaves Denver at 5-5, putting them 3rd in the AFC West and 7th in the conference. They currently have a 34.5% chance of making the playoffs and rank 25th in our NFL power rankings heading into week 11.

Against the spread, the Broncos are 7-3 this season, with a +2 scoring margin. They are 3-0 as favorites and 4-3 as underdogs. Their O/U record is 6-4, with their games averaging 37.4 points compared to an average line of 39.8.

  • Denver has put together a record of 2-1 over their past three games. This also includes going 2-1 ATS and an over-under mark of 3-0.
  • The Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last home games and 3-2 straight-up.
  • Free Spread Prediction Falcons +2.5 (Bet Now)

Falcons vs. Broncos Pick: Falcons +2.5

For this week 11 matchup between the Falcons and Broncos, we have the Broncos coming out on top by a score of 22-20. Even though the Falcons are the slight favorite at +2.5, we like the Broncos to cover and pull off the upset.

As for the best way to bet this one, we are taking the Falcons vs. the spread as our top pick. With the line sitting at 44 points, our best bet is to take the under, with our projections coming in at 42 combined points.

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